長期比特幣持有者推動分配模式，標誌著市場頂部

Glassnode 的分析表明，當長期持有者（LTH）表現出持續分佈模式時，比特幣的價格往往會達到潛在的頂部。透過追蹤「LTH 市場通貨膨脹率」（衡量LTH 相對於每日礦工發行量的比特幣累積或分配的年化率），Glassnode 觀察到，從歷史上看，當LTH 分配達到頂峰時，就會出現價格高峰。目前的趨勢顯示分配週期處於早期階段，已完成約 30%，這表明在潛在的市場平衡點和價格頂部之前將出現重大活動。

Bitcoin's Ascent to Zenith Marked by Distribution Patterns Among Long-Term Holders

比特幣的上升以長期持有者的分配模式為標誌

Executive Summary

執行摘要

Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics firm, has identified a distinct behavioral pattern exhibited by Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) that precedes potential market tops. This pattern, characterized by sustained distribution, suggests that LTHs, historically known for their steadfastness, are selling a significant portion of their holdings, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment.

Glassnode 是一家領先的鏈上分析公司，它發現了比特幣長期持有者（LTH）在潛在市場頂部之前表現出的獨特行為模式。這種以持續分佈為特徵的模式表明，歷來以堅定而聞名的 LTH 正在出售其持有的很大一部分股份，這可能預示著市場情緒的轉變。

Long-Term Holder Influence on Market Dynamics

長期持有者對市場動態的影響

Glassnode classifies Bitcoin investors based on their holding periods, categorizing those who have held their coins for over 155 days as LTHs. In contrast to short-term holders (STHs), who tend to be more reactive to market volatility, LTHs have traditionally played a stabilizing role, maintaining their holdings regardless of market conditions.

Glassnode 根據比特幣投資者的持有期限進行分類，將持有比特幣超過 155 天的人歸類為 LTH。與對市場波動更敏感的短期持有者 (STH) 不同，LTH 傳統上發揮穩定作用，無論市場狀況如何都維持其持有量。

LTH Market Inflation Rate: A Key Indicator

LTH 市場通膨率：關鍵指標

To gauge LTH behavior, Glassnode employs the LTH Market Inflation Rate metric, which tracks the annualized rate of Bitcoin accumulation or distribution relative to daily miner issuance. A positive value indicates net distribution, suggesting LTHs are adding to the market's sell-side pressure, while a negative value signifies net accumulation, where LTHs are removing coins from the market.

為了衡量 LTH 行為，Glassnode 採用了 LTH 市場通膨率指標，該指標追蹤比特幣累積或分配相對於每日礦工發行的年化率。正值表示淨分配，表明 LTH 正在增加市場的賣方壓力，而負值表示淨積累，即 LTH 正在從市場上移除代幣。

Historical Correlation with Price Tops

與價格頂部的歷史相關性

Glassnode's analysis reveals a strong correlation between periods of sustained LTH distribution and potential price tops for Bitcoin. When LTHs distribute their coins on a large scale, it often precedes a market equilibrium and a potential reversal in asset valuation.

Glassnode 的分析揭示了 LTH 持續分佈時期與比特幣潛在價格頂部之間存在強烈的相關性。當 LTH 大規模分發其代幣時，通常會先於市場均衡和資產估值的潛在逆轉。

Current Market Situation

目前的市場狀況

Currently, the LTH Market Inflation Rate indicates that Bitcoin is in an early phase of a distribution cycle, with approximately 30% of the cycle completed. This suggests that significant distribution activity may continue until the market reaches an equilibrium point from a supply and demand perspective, potentially coinciding with a price top.

目前，LTH市場通膨率顯示比特幣正處於分配週期的早期階段，大約已完成該週期的30%。這表明，大量的分銷活動可能會持續下去，直到市場從供需角度達到平衡點，可能與價格頂部同時發生。

Outlook and Implications

展望與影響

Glassnode's findings underscore the importance of monitoring LTH behavior as an indicator of market trends. While the current distribution cycle is in its early stages, it warrants close observation as it progresses, potentially providing valuable insights into the medium-term price action of Bitcoin.

Glassnode 的發現強調了監控 LTH 行為作為市場趨勢指標的重要性。雖然當前的分配週期處於早期階段，但值得密切觀察，因為它的進展可能為比特幣的中期價格走勢提供有價值的見解。

Additional Considerations

其他注意事項

It is important to note that the LTH Market Inflation Rate is just one factor to consider when analyzing the Bitcoin market. Other factors, such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment, can also influence price movements.

值得注意的是，LTH 市場通膨率只是分析比特幣市場時需要考慮的因素之一。其他因素，例如監管變化、宏觀經濟狀況和市場情緒，也會影響價格趨勢。

Conclusion

結論

Glassnode's analysis provides a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of the Bitcoin market, particularly the influential role of LTHs. By monitoring LTH distribution patterns, investors can gain a more informed perspective on potential market tops and make strategic decisions accordingly.

Glassnode 的分析為了解比特幣市場的動態，特別是 LTH 的影響力作用提供了一個有價值的工具。透過監控 LTH 分佈模式，投資者可以更了解潛在的市場頂部並做出相應的策略決策。