长期比特币持有者推动分配模式，标志着市场顶部

Glassnode 的分析表明，当长期持有者（LTH）表现出持续分布模式时，比特币的价格往往会达到潜在的顶部。通过跟踪“LTH 市场通货膨胀率”（衡量 LTH 相对于每日矿工发行量的比特币积累或分配的年化率），Glassnode 观察到，从历史上看，当 LTH 分配达到顶峰时，就会出现价格峰值。目前的趋势表明分配周期处于早期阶段，已完成约 30%，这表明在潜在的市场平衡点和价格顶部之前将出现重大活动。

Bitcoin's Ascent to Zenith Marked by Distribution Patterns Among Long-Term Holders

比特币的上升以长期持有者的分配模式为标志

Executive Summary

执行摘要

Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics firm, has identified a distinct behavioral pattern exhibited by Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) that precedes potential market tops. This pattern, characterized by sustained distribution, suggests that LTHs, historically known for their steadfastness, are selling a significant portion of their holdings, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment.

Glassnode 是一家领先的链上分析公司，它发现了比特币长期持有者（LTH）在潜在市场顶部之前表现出的独特行为模式。这种以持续分布为特征的模式表明，历来以坚定而闻名的 LTH 正在出售其持有的很大一部分股份，这可能预示着市场情绪的转变。

Long-Term Holder Influence on Market Dynamics

长期持有者对市场动态的影响

Glassnode classifies Bitcoin investors based on their holding periods, categorizing those who have held their coins for over 155 days as LTHs. In contrast to short-term holders (STHs), who tend to be more reactive to market volatility, LTHs have traditionally played a stabilizing role, maintaining their holdings regardless of market conditions.

Glassnode 根据比特币投资者的持有期限对其进行分类，将那些持有比特币超过 155 天的人归类为 LTH。与对市场波动更敏感的短期持有者 (STH) 不同，LTH 传统上发挥着稳定作用，无论市场状况如何都维持其持有量。

LTH Market Inflation Rate: A Key Indicator

LTH 市场通胀率：关键指标

To gauge LTH behavior, Glassnode employs the LTH Market Inflation Rate metric, which tracks the annualized rate of Bitcoin accumulation or distribution relative to daily miner issuance. A positive value indicates net distribution, suggesting LTHs are adding to the market's sell-side pressure, while a negative value signifies net accumulation, where LTHs are removing coins from the market.

为了衡量 LTH 行为，Glassnode 采用了 LTH 市场通胀率指标，该指标跟踪比特币累积或分配相对于每日矿工发行量的年化率。正值表示净分配，表明 LTH 正在增加市场的卖方压力，而负值表示净积累，即 LTH 正在从市场上移除代币。

Historical Correlation with Price Tops

与价格顶部的历史相关性

Glassnode's analysis reveals a strong correlation between periods of sustained LTH distribution and potential price tops for Bitcoin. When LTHs distribute their coins on a large scale, it often precedes a market equilibrium and a potential reversal in asset valuation.

Glassnode 的分析揭示了 LTH 持续分布时期与比特币潜在价格顶部之间存在很强的相关性。当 LTH 大规模分发其代币时，通常会先于市场均衡和资产估值的潜在逆转。

Current Market Situation

目前的市场情况

Currently, the LTH Market Inflation Rate indicates that Bitcoin is in an early phase of a distribution cycle, with approximately 30% of the cycle completed. This suggests that significant distribution activity may continue until the market reaches an equilibrium point from a supply and demand perspective, potentially coinciding with a price top.

目前，LTH市场通胀率表明比特币正处于分配周期的早期阶段，大约已完成该周期的30%。这表明，大量的分销活动可能会持续下去，直到市场从供需角度达到平衡点，可能与价格顶部同时发生。

Outlook and Implications

展望与影响

Glassnode's findings underscore the importance of monitoring LTH behavior as an indicator of market trends. While the current distribution cycle is in its early stages, it warrants close observation as it progresses, potentially providing valuable insights into the medium-term price action of Bitcoin.

Glassnode 的发现强调了监控 LTH 行为作为市场趋势指标的重要性。虽然当前的分配周期处于早期阶段，但值得密切观察，因为它的进展可能为比特币的中期价格走势提供有价值的见解。

Additional Considerations

其他注意事项

It is important to note that the LTH Market Inflation Rate is just one factor to consider when analyzing the Bitcoin market. Other factors, such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment, can also influence price movements.

值得注意的是，LTH 市场通胀率只是分析比特币市场时需要考虑的因素之一。其他因素，例如监管变化、宏观经济状况和市场情绪，也会影响价格走势。

Conclusion

结论

Glassnode's analysis provides a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of the Bitcoin market, particularly the influential role of LTHs. By monitoring LTH distribution patterns, investors can gain a more informed perspective on potential market tops and make strategic decisions accordingly.

Glassnode 的分析为了解比特币市场的动态，特别是 LTH 的影响力作用提供了一个有价值的工具。通过监控 LTH 分布模式，投资者可以更了解潜在的市场顶部并做出相应的战略决策。