以太坊開發人員之間的分裂導致了巨大的崩潰。這是結束的開始嗎？

華爾街迴避了期貨市場中的以太坊短職位在過去一周中增長了40％，自2024年11月以來就增加了500％！

A split in the ranks of developers has caused a resounding crash in the second cryptocurrency. Is this the beginning of the end?

在第二次加密貨幣中，開發人員等級的分裂導致了巨大的崩潰。這是結束的開始嗎？

Wall Street institutions are shunning ethereum

華爾街機構是迴避以太坊

Short positions in the Futures market have increased by 40% in the past week and by 500% since November 2024!

自2024年11月以來，在過去一周的期貨市場中的短職位上升了40％，縮短了500％！

Never before have investment funds from Wall Street been so pessimistic. This distrust manifested itself in a lightning drop of 37% at the beginning of the month.

從來沒有從華爾街的投資資金如此悲觀。這種不信任表現為在本月初的閃電降臨37％。

This crash didn’t make headlines, but over $1 trillion has nonetheless vanished from the crypto market.

這次撞車事故並沒有成為頭條新聞，但是超過1萬億美元從加密貨幣市場中消失了。

In the face of this decline, bitcoin’s dominance has increased even further. It now represents over 60% of the market. Up to 70% if we exclude stablecoins and memecoins.

面對這種下降，比特幣的統治地位進一步增加了。現在，它佔市場的60％以上。如果我們排除stablecoins和Memecoins，則最高70％。

ETH is currently trading 45% below its record high from November 2021. We are hovering around $2,600, down from $4,600 in 2021. The opposite is true for bitcoin, which is consolidating around $100,000, lurking just below its all-time high ($108,000).

ETH目前的交易價格比2021年11月起低45％。我們徘徊在2,600美元左右，低於2021年的4,600美元。相反，比特幣相反，比特幣的合併約為100,000美元，潛伏在其歷史上的高處（108,000美元）以下（108,000美元） 。

The decline of ethereum against bitcoin is even more pronounced than against the dollar. ETH has collapsed by nearly 70% from December 2021 to today.

以太坊對比特幣的下降甚至比對美元更明顯。從2021年12月到今天，ETH倒塌了近70％。

The question is: why are hedge funds betting on the decline? One explanation is that the supply of ETH is once again on the rise.

問題是：為什麼對沖基金押注下降？一種解釋是，ETH的供應再次在上升。

Just over 120 million ETH are in circulation. The uninterrupted growth since April 2024 isn’t huge, but it stands in stark contrast to the promise of “ultra sound money.” While the number of ETH was supposed to decrease following the transition to PoS, the opposite is happening instead.

剛剛超過1.2億ETH流通。自2024年4月以來，不間斷的增長並不大，但與“超音金”的希望形成鮮明對比。雖然ETH的數量應該在過渡到POS之後減少，但相反的情況正在發生。

Moreover, it turns out that institutional players are not showing up, not to mention the schism within the developer community which doesn’t help anything. A fork soon?

此外，事實證明，機構參與者沒有出現，更不用說開發人員社區中的分裂無濟於事。叉子很快？

Ethereum vs Smart Money

以太坊與聰明的錢

“Institutional” investors have invested over $40 billion in Bitcoin ETFs. A jackpot now worth $113 billion given the appreciation of bitcoin. That’s nearly 6% of all BTC in circulation.

“機構”投資者已經投資了超過400億美元的比特幣ETF。鑑於比特幣的讚賞，現在價值1,130億美元的頭獎。這幾乎是流通中所有BTC的6％。

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs look pale. They are worth only $10 billion, or 3.5% of ETH. The volumes are meager.

相反，以太坊ETF看起來蒼白。它們僅價值100億美元，即ETH的3.5％。這些卷很少。

Sophisticated investors know that monetary hegemony is a fight to the death. Twenty-seven U.S. states are preparing to accumulate bitcoins, and none of them want ETH…

精緻的投資者知道，貨幣霸權是死亡的鬥爭。 27個美國正在準備積累比特幣，他們都不想要ETH…

Bitcoin already weighs six times more than ethereum, and it is hard to see how the trend could reverse. None of the nations planning to imitate the United States (Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Japan, Brazil, Poland, Russia, etc.) are talking about ethereum. The silence is deafening.

比特幣的重量已經是以太坊的六倍，很難看到趨勢如何逆轉。計劃模仿美國的國家（捷克共和國，香港，日本，巴西，波蘭，俄羅斯等）都在談論以太坊。沉默震耳欲聾。

Some want to believe that the U.S. sovereign fund will accumulate some. However, it is enough to remember the words of Howard Lutnick (in charge of the sovereign fund) to be persuaded otherwise:

有些人想相信美國主權基金會積累一些基金。但是，足以記住霍華德·盧特尼克（負責主權基金）的話，否則可以說服：

“What is the only asset that people can hold without anyone being able to confiscate it? Bitcoin. With the stablecoin tether, you can call Tether to freeze funds. With Ethereum, you can call Joe Lublin”…

“人們唯一能夠沒收它可以持有的資產是什麼？比特幣。使用Stablecoin繫繩，您可以致電繫繩以冷凍資金。使用以太坊，您可以稱呼喬·盧布林（Joe Lublin）”…

Another reason why ethereum is on the decline is due to the revolt of developers against the recent purge within the Ethereum foundation.

以太坊衰落的另一個原因是由於開發商反對以太坊基金會內清除的起義。

Fork on the horizon?

叉上叉？

Konstantin Lomashuk, founder of Lido and P2P.org, has created a “second foundation” for Ethereum.

Lido和P2P.org的創始人Konstantin Lomashuk為以太坊創建了“第二基金會”。

At issue is the eviction of certain developers from the Ethereum Foundation, including veteran Eric Conner. He described the Ethereum Foundation as “a swamp of leftists and losers. We could cut 80% of the budget, and ethereum would still operate and progress.”

問題是從以太坊基金會（包括老將埃里克·康納）驅逐某些開發商。他將以太坊基金會描述為“左派和失敗者的沼澤。我們可以削減預算的80％，以太坊仍將運作和進步。”

Another developer commented on X:

另一位開發人員對X進行了評論：

“You cannot deny that ethereum is losing entire segments of its base (users, developers). Think what you want, but the market is sending a strong signal that the current strategy is not right.”

“您不能否認以太坊正在失去其基礎（用戶，開發人員）的整個細分市場。想想您想要的東西，但是市場發出了強烈的信號，表明當前的策略不正確。”

The mistakes of the past are also resurfacing through @Beaniemaxi:

過去的錯誤也通過@beaniemaxi重新出現：

“The worst strategic decision of Ethereum was to switch from PoW to PoS due to climate change. […] Abandoning it made no economic sense.”

“以太坊最糟糕的戰略決定是由於氣候變化而從POW轉換為POS。 […]放棄它是沒有經濟意義的。”

Discord reigns, and a recent statement from Vitalik Buterin points toward a centralized project. He stated on January 22:

不和諧統治，Vitalik Buterin的最新聲明指向了一個集中的項目。他在1月22日說：

“The person who decides the new leadership of the Ethereum foundation is me. One of the goals of the current reform is to give the foundation a ‘proper board’ [a real board of

“決定以太坊基金會新領導的人是我。當前改革的目標之一是給基金會一個“適當的董事會” [真正的董事會