以太坊开发人员之间的分裂导致了巨大的崩溃。这是结束的开始吗？

华尔街回避了期货市场中的以太坊短职位在过去一周中增长了40％，自2024年11月以来就增加了500％！

A split in the ranks of developers has caused a resounding crash in the second cryptocurrency. Is this the beginning of the end?

在第二次加密货币中，开发人员等级的分裂导致了巨大的崩溃。这是结束的开始吗？

Wall Street institutions are shunning ethereum

华尔街机构是回避以太坊

Short positions in the Futures market have increased by 40% in the past week and by 500% since November 2024!

自2024年11月以来，在过去一周的期货市场中的短职位上升了40％，缩短了500％！

Never before have investment funds from Wall Street been so pessimistic. This distrust manifested itself in a lightning drop of 37% at the beginning of the month.

从来没有从华尔街的投资资金如此悲观。这种不信任表现为在本月初的闪电降临37％。

This crash didn’t make headlines, but over $1 trillion has nonetheless vanished from the crypto market.

这次撞车事故并没有成为头条新闻，但是超过1万亿美元从加密货币市场中消失了。

In the face of this decline, bitcoin’s dominance has increased even further. It now represents over 60% of the market. Up to 70% if we exclude stablecoins and memecoins.

面对这种下降，比特币的统治地位进一步增加了。现在，它占市场的60％以上。如果我们排除stablecoins和Memecoins，则最高70％。

ETH is currently trading 45% below its record high from November 2021. We are hovering around $2,600, down from $4,600 in 2021. The opposite is true for bitcoin, which is consolidating around $100,000, lurking just below its all-time high ($108,000).

ETH目前的交易价格比2021年11月起低45％。我们徘徊在2,600美元左右，低于2021年的4,600美元。相反，比特币相反，比特币的合并约为100,000美元，潜伏在其历史上的高处（108,000美元）以下（108,000美元） 。

The decline of ethereum against bitcoin is even more pronounced than against the dollar. ETH has collapsed by nearly 70% from December 2021 to today.

以太坊对比特币的下降甚至比对美元更明显。从2021年12月到今天，ETH倒塌了近70％。

The question is: why are hedge funds betting on the decline? One explanation is that the supply of ETH is once again on the rise.

问题是：为什么对冲基金押注下降？一种解释是，ETH的供应再次在上升。

Just over 120 million ETH are in circulation. The uninterrupted growth since April 2024 isn’t huge, but it stands in stark contrast to the promise of “ultra sound money.” While the number of ETH was supposed to decrease following the transition to PoS, the opposite is happening instead.

刚刚超过1.2亿ETH流通。自2024年4月以来，不间断的增长并不大，但与“超音金”的希望形成鲜明对比。虽然ETH的数量应该在过渡到POS之后减少，但相反的情况正在发生。

Moreover, it turns out that institutional players are not showing up, not to mention the schism within the developer community which doesn’t help anything. A fork soon?

此外，事实证明，机构参与者没有出现，更不用说开发人员社区中的分裂无济于事。叉子很快？

Ethereum vs Smart Money

以太坊与聪明的钱

“Institutional” investors have invested over $40 billion in Bitcoin ETFs. A jackpot now worth $113 billion given the appreciation of bitcoin. That’s nearly 6% of all BTC in circulation.

“机构”投资者已经投资了超过400亿美元的比特币ETF。鉴于比特币的赞赏，现在价值1,130亿美元的头奖。这几乎是流通中所有BTC的6％。

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs look pale. They are worth only $10 billion, or 3.5% of ETH. The volumes are meager.

相反，以太坊ETF看起来苍白。它们仅价值100亿美元，即ETH的3.5％。这些卷很少。

Sophisticated investors know that monetary hegemony is a fight to the death. Twenty-seven U.S. states are preparing to accumulate bitcoins, and none of them want ETH…

精致的投资者知道，货币霸权是死亡的斗争。 27个美国正在准备积累比特币，他们都不想要ETH…

Bitcoin already weighs six times more than ethereum, and it is hard to see how the trend could reverse. None of the nations planning to imitate the United States (Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Japan, Brazil, Poland, Russia, etc.) are talking about ethereum. The silence is deafening.

比特币的重量已经是以太坊的六倍，很难看到趋势如何逆转。计划模仿美国的国家（捷克共和国，香港，日本，巴西，波兰，俄罗斯等）都在谈论以太坊。沉默震耳欲聋。

Some want to believe that the U.S. sovereign fund will accumulate some. However, it is enough to remember the words of Howard Lutnick (in charge of the sovereign fund) to be persuaded otherwise:

有些人想相信美国主权基金会积累一些基金。但是，足以记住霍华德·卢特尼克（负责主权基金）的话，否则可以说服：

“What is the only asset that people can hold without anyone being able to confiscate it? Bitcoin. With the stablecoin tether, you can call Tether to freeze funds. With Ethereum, you can call Joe Lublin”…

“人们唯一能够没收它可以持有的资产是什么？比特币。使用Stablecoin系绳，您可以致电系绳以冷冻资金。使用以太坊，您可以称呼乔·卢布林（Joe Lublin）”…

Another reason why ethereum is on the decline is due to the revolt of developers against the recent purge within the Ethereum foundation.

以太坊衰落的另一个原因是由于开发商反对以太坊基金会内清除的起义。

Fork on the horizon?

叉上叉？

Konstantin Lomashuk, founder of Lido and P2P.org, has created a “second foundation” for Ethereum.

Lido和P2P.org的创始人Konstantin Lomashuk为以太坊创建了“第二基金会”。

At issue is the eviction of certain developers from the Ethereum Foundation, including veteran Eric Conner. He described the Ethereum Foundation as “a swamp of leftists and losers. We could cut 80% of the budget, and ethereum would still operate and progress.”

问题是从以太坊基金会（包括老将埃里克·康纳）驱逐某些开发商。他将以太坊基金会描述为“左派和失败者的沼泽。我们可以削减预算的80％，以太坊仍将运作和进步。”

Another developer commented on X:

另一位开发人员对X进行了评论：

“You cannot deny that ethereum is losing entire segments of its base (users, developers). Think what you want, but the market is sending a strong signal that the current strategy is not right.”

“您不能否认以太坊正在失去其基础（用户，开发人员）的整个细分市场。想想您想要的东西，但是市场发出了强烈的信号，表明当前的策略不正确。”

The mistakes of the past are also resurfacing through @Beaniemaxi:

过去的错误也通过@beaniemaxi重新出现：

“The worst strategic decision of Ethereum was to switch from PoW to PoS due to climate change. […] Abandoning it made no economic sense.”

“以太坊最糟糕的战略决定是由于气候变化而从POW转换为POS。 […]放弃它是没有经济意义的。”

Discord reigns, and a recent statement from Vitalik Buterin points toward a centralized project. He stated on January 22:

不和谐统治，Vitalik Buterin的最新声明指向了一个集中的项目。他在1月22日说：

“The person who decides the new leadership of the Ethereum foundation is me. One of the goals of the current reform is to give the foundation a ‘proper board’ [a real board of

“决定以太坊基金会新领导的人是我。当前改革的目标之一是给基金会一个“适当的董事会” [真正的董事会