SEC 與 Ripple 案：加密貨幣監管未來的關鍵法律戰

隨著新的一年的到來，SEC 和 Ripple 之間持續的法律鬥爭愈演愈烈，市場密切關注 SEC 的下一步。

The ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Ripple is reaching a critical juncture as the deadline for the SEC's opening brief approaches on January 2, 2025. This case has immense implications for the future of crypto regulation in the US, and its outcome will be closely scrutinized by markets and industry participants alike.

隨著 2025 年 1 月 2 日 SEC 開庭簡報截止日期的臨近，SEC 和 Ripple 之間正在進行的法律鬥爭正達到關鍵時刻。受到市場和行業參與者的審查。

In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres delivered a significant ruling, stating that programmatic sales of XRP did not meet the criteria for being classified as securities under the Howey Test. This decision shifted the landscape of crypto regulation, raising hopes within the crypto community that further legal battles might be won against the SEC's overreach.

2023 年 7 月，法官 Analisa Torres 做出了一項重要裁決，指出 XRP 的程序化銷售不符合 Howey 測試下歸類為證券的標準。這項決定改變了加密貨幣監管的格局，讓加密貨幣社群燃起了希望，認為美國證券交易委員會的越權行為可能會贏得進一步的法律訴訟。

As the SEC prepares to file its opening brief, a change in leadership is on the horizon. SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whose tenure has been marked by tough enforcement actions against crypto firms, is set to step down on January 20, 2025, coinciding with President Trump's inauguration. The incoming chair, likely more crypto-friendly, could lead to a shift in the SEC's stance on the Ripple case and other ongoing lawsuits, including those involving Coinbase and other major players in the crypto space.

隨著美國證券交易委員會準備提交開庭簡報，領導層的變動即將到來。 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 將於 2025 年 1 月 20 日辭職，恰逢川普總統就職典禮。即將上任的主席可能對加密貨幣更加友好，這可能會導致 SEC 對 Ripple 案和其他正在進行的訴訟（包括涉及 Coinbase 和加密貨幣領域其他主要參與者的訴訟）的立場發生轉變。

Legal experts, including John E. Deaton, have expressed concern that Gensler's final days in office could see continued regulatory action against crypto companies. However, with a new, more crypto-positive SEC chair poised to take office, many in the industry are optimistic that the Ripple case—and other crypto lawsuits—could see a more favorable resolution.

包括約翰·E·迪頓 (John E. Deaton) 在內的法律專家表示擔心，詹斯勒在任的最後幾天可能會看到針對加密貨幣公司的持續監管行動。然而，隨著一位對加密貨幣更加積極的 SEC 主席即將上任，許多業內人士樂觀地認為 Ripple 案以及其他加密貨幣訴訟可能會得到更有利的解決方案。

Ripple's Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, has outlined the company's vision for the future of US crypto regulation, calling for clear and consistent rules. He argues that the SEC should have jurisdiction over security transactions, but tokens themselves should not be considered securities unless they are part of a security transaction. Furthermore, Alderoty asserts that the SEC's reach shouldn't extend beyond its core mandate and that the notion of a token “evolving” from a security to a non-security is legally flawed.

Ripple 的首席法務官 Stuart Alderoty 概述了該公司對美國加密貨幣監管未來的願景，呼籲制定明確且一致的規則。他認為 SEC 應該對證券交易擁有管轄權，但代幣本身不應被視為證券，除非它們是證券交易的一部分。此外，Alderoty 聲稱 SEC 的管轄範圍不應超出其核心職責，且代幣從證券「演變」為非證券的概念在法律上是有缺陷的。

These statements are crucial for the future of the digital asset space in the US, as Ripple continues to challenge the SEC's regulatory authority over XRP and other cryptocurrencies. If the SEC ultimately withdraws its appeal, it could pave the way for a more defined and clearer regulatory framework, benefiting both crypto companies and investors.

這些聲明對於美國數位資產領域的未來至關重要，因為 Ripple 繼續挑戰 SEC 對 XRP 和其他加密貨幣的監管權限。如果美國證券交易委員會最終撤回上訴，則可能為更明確、更清晰的監管框架鋪平道路，使加密貨幣公司和投資者都受益。

XRP's price is closely tied to the ongoing developments in the SEC v Ripple case. On January 2, 2025, XRP saw a significant 3.03% increase, following a strong 11.89% surge the previous day, closing at $2.4004. This price action indicates growing investor confidence, especially as speculation increases that the SEC may withdraw its appeal.

XRP 的價格與 SEC v. Ripple 案的進展密切相關。 2025 年 1 月 2 日，XRP 繼前一天強勁上漲 11.89% 後，大幅上漲 3.03%，收在 2.4004 美元。這一價格走勢表明投資者信心不斷增強，尤其是隨著美國證券交易委員會可能撤回上訴的猜測增加。

If the SEC backs down, XRP could make a swift move towards its 2018 all-time high of $3.5505. However, if the SEC continues its pursuit, XRP could see a price decline, potentially falling below the $2 mark.

如果 SEC 做出讓步，XRP 可能會迅速升至 2018 年歷史高點 3.5505 美元。然而，如果 SEC 繼續追查，XRP 的價格可能會下跌，有可能跌破 2 美元大關。

The near-term price trajectory for XRP will largely depend on the SEC's actions. Markets are betting on a potential regulatory shift under the new SEC chair, which could lead to a bullish outlook for XRP in 2025.

XRP 的近期價格軌跡將在很大程度上取決於 SEC 的行動。市場押注 SEC 新任主席領導下的潛在監管轉變，可能導致 XRP 2025 年前景看好。

Bitcoin (BTC) is also at the center of speculation, particularly regarding its future as a US Strategic Reserve (SBR) asset. Prominent figures like Anthony Scaramucci suggest that the US government may soon start acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin, potentially making it part of the country's official reserve assets. This move would place Bitcoin alongside gold as a store of value for the US government, potentially driving massive institutional and government-backed demand for BTC.

比特幣（BTC）也處於投機的中心，特別是關於其作為美國戰略儲備（SBR）資產的未來。安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇（Anthony Scaramucci）等知名人士表示，美國政府可能很快就會開始收購大量比特幣，並有可能使其成為該國官方儲備資產的一部分。此舉將使比特幣與黃金一樣成為美國政府的價值儲存手段，可能推動機構和政府支持的對比特幣的大規模需求。

Deaton has weighed in on the potential impact of a US Bitcoin Reserve, predicting that it could spark a “Nation State FOMO” (fear of missing out), pushing Bitcoin prices towards $1 million per BTC if other countries follow suit.

迪頓評估了美國比特幣儲備的潛在影響，預測如果其他國家效仿，這可能會引發「民族國家 FOMO」（害怕錯過），將比特幣價格推向每枚 100 萬美元。

On January 2, 2025, Bitcoin rose 2.60%, closing at $96,823. As discussions around the potential for a US SBR continue, Bitcoin’s price could see significant upward momentum, especially if the government and Federal Reserve begin to back the digital asset as a strategic reserve. This would drive further institutional interest and significantly boost Bitcoin's adoption on a global scale.

2025 年 1 月 2 日，比特幣上漲 2.60%，收在 96,823 美元。隨著圍繞美國 SBR 潛力的討論繼續進行，比特幣的價格可能會出現顯著的上漲勢頭，特別是如果政府和聯準會開始支持數位資產作為戰略儲備的話。這將進一步激發機構興趣，並顯著促進比特幣在全球範圍內的採用。

The outlook for Bitcoin in 2025 remains bullish, especially with growing expectations for a Bitcoin-spot ETF approval. The approval of such an ETF could bring substantial capital inflows into the market, further fueling Bitcoin's rise. Near-term price movements will be influenced by developments in the US BTC-spot ETF market and the broader discussions about Bitcoin's role as a strategic asset.

2025 年比特幣的前景仍然看漲，尤其是隨著人們對比特幣現貨 ETF 獲得批准的預期越來越高。這種ETF的批准可能會為市場帶來大量資金流入，進一步推動比特幣的上漲。近期價格走勢將受到美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 市場發展以及有關比特幣作為戰略資產角色的更廣泛討論的影響。

Bitcoin's price is currently testing key resistance levels, with analysts predicting that the cryptocurrency could reach its all-time highs of $108,231 if market conditions

比特幣的價格目前正在測試關鍵阻力位，分析師預測，如果市場狀況良好，加密貨幣可能會達到 108,231 美元的歷史高點