著名加密貨幣分析師 PlanB 預測比特幣未來幾年可能會突破 25 萬美元

PlanB 的庫存流量 (S2F) 模型歷來預測價格在每次減半事件後都會大幅上漲。

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, has made bold predictions about Bitcoin’s future price movements. In a recent video update, PlanB shared his bullish outlook on BTC, citing historical patterns and key market drivers that could propel the flagship cryptocurrency to new all-time highs.

以其股票流量（S2F）模型而聞名的著名加密貨幣分析師 PlanB 對比特幣未來的價格走勢做出了大膽的預測。在最近的視訊更新中，PlanB 分享了他對 BTC 的看漲前景，並列舉了可能推動這一旗艦加密貨幣創下歷史新高的歷史模式和關鍵市場驅動因素。

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $76,500, but PlanB believes this is just the beginning of what could be a series of big rallies, with the possibility of reaching a range of $250,000 to $1 million within the next four years. Here’s a closer look at what’s driving this optimism and why PlanB's S2F model suggests that Bitcoin’s best days may still be ahead.

比特幣目前的交易價格約為 76,500 美元，但 PlanB 認為這只是一系列大反彈的開始，未來四年內有可能達到 25 萬美元至 100 萬美元的範圍。以下我們將仔細研究推動這種樂觀情緒的因素，以及為什麼 PlanB 的 S2F 模型表明比特幣最好的日子可能仍在前方。

PlanB's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model

PlanB 的庫存到流量 (S2F) 模型

PlanB's stock-to-flow (S2F) model is a popular tool used to predict the price of Bitcoin, based on its scarcity. Originally developed for traditional commodities like gold and silver, the model calculates an asset’s value by considering how much of it is mined (the “stock”) relative to how much is produced annually (the “flow”). In simple terms, the less of an asset that is available, the more valuable it becomes — assuming demand remains constant or increases.

PlanB 的庫存流量 (S2F) 模型是一種流行的工具，用於根據比特幣的稀缺性來預測比特幣的價格。該模型最初是為黃金和白銀等傳統商品開發的，透過考慮開採量（「庫存」）相對於每年生產量（「流量」）的比例來計算資產的價值。簡而言之，假設需求保持不變或增加，可用資產越少，它就越有價值。

For Bitcoin, the model has historically predicted significant price increases after each halving event. The halving occurs roughly every four years, reducing the block reward for miners and effectively decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation. PlanB's S2F model uses this scarcity principle to forecast price trends, and it has consistently signaled the start of strong bull runs after halvings, which typically cause the “red dot” on his charts to appear.

對於比特幣來說，該模型歷來預測每次減半事件後價格都會大幅上漲。減半大約每四年發生一次，減少了礦工的區塊獎勵，並有效減少了進入流通的新比特幣的供應。 PlanB 的 S2F 模型使用這種稀缺性原理來預測價格趨勢，並且它始終預示著減半後強勁牛市的開始，這通常會導致他的圖表上出現「紅點」。

Bitcoin's Recent Surge and Historic Price Patterns

比特幣近期的飆升與歷史價格模式

According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s recent price movements align with his S2F model, which suggests that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a major rally. After closing October at $70,000, Bitcoin quickly surged past $76,000, marking a new all-time high. This surge broke a month-long trading range between $60,000 and $70,000, and PlanB sees it as a signal that Bitcoin’s price could rise sharply from here.

PlanB 表示，比特幣最近的價格走勢與其 S2F 模型相符，這表明該加密貨幣正處於大幅上漲的邊緣。 10 月收盤價為 70,000 美元後，比特幣迅速飆升至 76,000 美元以上，創下歷史新高。這次飆升打破了長達一個月的 6 萬美元至 7 萬美元交易區間，PlanB 認為這是比特幣價格可能從此大幅上漲的訊號。

“If history is any guide, and if the stock-to-flow model is any guide, we’ll see sharp price increases from here,” PlanB explained. He also highlighted that, based on past performance and his model's predictions, Bitcoin could average between $250,000 and $1 million per coin in the next four years. This projection suggests that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a massive upward trend that could continue for several years.

「如果歷史有任何指導意義，如果庫存流量模型有任何指導意義，我們將看到價格從這裡急劇上漲，」PlanB 解釋道。他也強調，根據過去的表現和模型的預測，未來四年，比特幣的平均價格可能在 25 萬至 100 萬美元之間。這項預測表明，比特幣仍處於大規模上漲趨勢的早期階段，這種趨勢可能會持續數年。

Major Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin

比特幣的主要看漲催化劑

In addition to his technical analysis, PlanB points to several bullish catalysts that could push Bitcoin’s price higher in the near future. One of the most significant factors, according to PlanB, is the potential for a Bitcoin-friendly political environment in the U.S.

除了技術分析之外，PlanB 還指出了幾種看漲催化劑，這些催化劑可能會在不久的將來推高比特幣的價格。 PlanB 認為，最重要的因素之一是美國有可能形成一個有利於比特幣的政治環境

A Pro-Bitcoin U.S. Presidency?

支持比特幣的美國總統？

PlanB suggests that the re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been described as “very pro-Bitcoin,” could play a key role in driving Bitcoin’s value up. Trump’s administration was known for supporting the adoption of cryptocurrencies, and PlanB believes that a second Trump presidency could lead to further positive regulatory changes for Bitcoin.

PlanB 認為，被描述為「非常支持比特幣」的美國前總統川普的連任可能會在推動比特幣價值上漲方面發揮關鍵作用。川普政府以支持加密貨幣的採用而聞名，PlanB 認為川普第二任總統可能會導致比特幣的監管進一步積極的變化。

In particular, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a known Bitcoin advocate, has proposed the “Bitcoin Act,” which aims to create a national Bitcoin reserve. The plan includes buying one million Bitcoin over the next five years, which would significantly reduce the available supply and likely drive up the asset’s price.

特別是，著名的比特幣倡導者、美國參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis)提出了“比特幣法案”，旨在建立國家比特幣儲備。該計劃包括在未來五年內購買 100 萬比特幣，這將大大減少可用供應並可能推高資產價格。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Buying Program

MicroStrategy 的比特幣購買計劃

Another major catalyst is MicroStrategy, the business intelligence firm led by Michael Saylor. MicroStrategy has made waves in the crypto world for its aggressive Bitcoin-buying strategy, and PlanB believes that this could have a huge impact on Bitcoin’s price. The company has already invested billions of dollars in Bitcoin, and Saylor has plans to purchase even more.

另一個主要推動因素是由 Michael Saylor 領導的商業智慧公司 MicroStrategy。 MicroStrategy 因其積極的比特幣購買策略而在加密世界掀起波瀾，PlanB 認為這可能會對比特幣的價格產生巨大影響。該公司已經在比特幣上投資了數十億美元，塞勒也計劃購買更多。

PlanB highlighted Saylor’s “$42 billion Bitcoin buy program,” which will continue over the next three years, as another factor that could contribute to Bitcoin’s rising price. As large institutions and companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin, demand will likely increase, further fueling upward price movement.

PlanB 強調了 Saylor 的“420 億美元比特幣購買計劃”，該計劃將在未來三年內持續下去，這是可能導致比特幣價格上漲的另一個因素。隨著大型機構和公司繼續累積比特幣，需求可能會增加，進一步推動價格上漲。

Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Inflows

比特幣 ETF 和機構資金流入

PlanB also points to the rise of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a significant factor in Bitcoin’s bullish outlook. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has already led to increased institutional interest, and PlanB predicts that this trend will continue, driving more capital into the Bitcoin market.

PlanB 也指出，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的崛起是比特幣看漲前景的重要因素。美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准已經引起了機構興趣的增加，PlanB 預測這一趨勢將持續下去，推動更多資本進入比特幣市場。