著名加密货币分析师 PlanB 预测比特币未来几年可能突破 25 万美元

PlanB 的库存流量 (S2F) 模型历来预测每次减半事件后价格都会大幅上涨。

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, has made bold predictions about Bitcoin’s future price movements. In a recent video update, PlanB shared his bullish outlook on BTC, citing historical patterns and key market drivers that could propel the flagship cryptocurrency to new all-time highs.

以其股票流量（S2F）模型而闻名的著名加密货币分析师 PlanB 对比特币未来的价格走势做出了大胆的预测。在最近的视频更新中，PlanB 分享了他对 BTC 的看涨前景，并列举了可能推动这一旗舰加密货币创下历史新高的历史模式和关键市场驱动因素。

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $76,500, but PlanB believes this is just the beginning of what could be a series of big rallies, with the possibility of reaching a range of $250,000 to $1 million within the next four years. Here’s a closer look at what’s driving this optimism and why PlanB's S2F model suggests that Bitcoin’s best days may still be ahead.

比特币目前的交易价格约为 76,500 美元，但 PlanB 认为这只是一系列大反弹的开始，未来四年内有可能达到 250,000 美元至 100 万美元的范围。下面我们将仔细研究推动这种乐观情绪的因素，以及为什么 PlanB 的 S2F 模型表明比特币最好的日子可能仍在前方。

PlanB's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model

PlanB 的库存到流量 (S2F) 模型

PlanB's stock-to-flow (S2F) model is a popular tool used to predict the price of Bitcoin, based on its scarcity. Originally developed for traditional commodities like gold and silver, the model calculates an asset’s value by considering how much of it is mined (the “stock”) relative to how much is produced annually (the “flow”). In simple terms, the less of an asset that is available, the more valuable it becomes — assuming demand remains constant or increases.

PlanB 的库存流量 (S2F) 模型是一种流行的工具，用于根据比特币的稀缺性来预测比特币的价格。该模型最初是为黄金和白银等传统商品开发的，通过考虑开采量（“库存”）相对于每年生产量（“流量”）的比例来计算资产的价值。简而言之，假设需求保持不变或增加，可用资产越少，它就越有价值。

For Bitcoin, the model has historically predicted significant price increases after each halving event. The halving occurs roughly every four years, reducing the block reward for miners and effectively decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation. PlanB's S2F model uses this scarcity principle to forecast price trends, and it has consistently signaled the start of strong bull runs after halvings, which typically cause the “red dot” on his charts to appear.

对于比特币来说，该模型历来预测每次减半事件后价格都会大幅上涨。减半大约每四年发生一次，减少了矿工的区块奖励，并有效减少了进入流通的新比特币的供应。 PlanB 的 S2F 模型使用这种稀缺性原理来预测价格趋势，并且它始终预示着减半后强劲牛市的开始，这通常会导致他的图表上出现“红点”。

Bitcoin's Recent Surge and Historic Price Patterns

比特币近期的飙升和历史价格模式

According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s recent price movements align with his S2F model, which suggests that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a major rally. After closing October at $70,000, Bitcoin quickly surged past $76,000, marking a new all-time high. This surge broke a month-long trading range between $60,000 and $70,000, and PlanB sees it as a signal that Bitcoin’s price could rise sharply from here.

PlanB 表示，比特币最近的价格走势与其 S2F 模型相符，这表明该加密货币正处于大幅上涨的边缘。 10 月收盘价为 70,000 美元后，比特币迅速飙升至 76,000 美元以上，创下历史新高。这次飙升打破了长达一个月的 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元交易区间，PlanB 认为这是比特币价格可能从此大幅上涨的信号。

“If history is any guide, and if the stock-to-flow model is any guide, we’ll see sharp price increases from here,” PlanB explained. He also highlighted that, based on past performance and his model's predictions, Bitcoin could average between $250,000 and $1 million per coin in the next four years. This projection suggests that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a massive upward trend that could continue for several years.

“如果历史有任何指导意义，如果库存流量模型有任何指导意义，我们将看到价格从这里急剧上涨，”PlanB 解释道。他还强调，根据过去的表现和模型的预测，未来四年，比特币的平均价格可能在 25 万至 100 万美元之间。这一预测表明，比特币仍处于大规模上涨趋势的早期阶段，这种趋势可能会持续数年。

Major Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin

比特币的主要看涨催化剂

In addition to his technical analysis, PlanB points to several bullish catalysts that could push Bitcoin’s price higher in the near future. One of the most significant factors, according to PlanB, is the potential for a Bitcoin-friendly political environment in the U.S.

除了技术分析之外，PlanB 还指出了几种看涨催化剂，这些催化剂可能会在不久的将来推高比特币的价格。 PlanB 认为，最重要的因素之一是美国有可能形成有利于比特币的政治环境

A Pro-Bitcoin U.S. Presidency?

支持比特币的美国总统？

PlanB suggests that the re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been described as “very pro-Bitcoin,” could play a key role in driving Bitcoin’s value up. Trump’s administration was known for supporting the adoption of cryptocurrencies, and PlanB believes that a second Trump presidency could lead to further positive regulatory changes for Bitcoin.

PlanB 认为，被描述为“非常支持比特币”的美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的连任可能会在推动比特币价值上涨方面发挥关键作用。特朗普政府以支持加密货币的采用而闻名，PlanB 认为特朗普第二任总统可能会导致比特币的监管发生进一步积极的变化。

In particular, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a known Bitcoin advocate, has proposed the “Bitcoin Act,” which aims to create a national Bitcoin reserve. The plan includes buying one million Bitcoin over the next five years, which would significantly reduce the available supply and likely drive up the asset’s price.

特别是，著名的比特币倡导者、美国参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)提出了“比特币法案”，旨在建立国家比特币储备。该计划包括在未来五年内购买 100 万比特币，这将大大减少可用供应量并可能推高资产价格。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Buying Program

MicroStrategy 的比特币购买计划

Another major catalyst is MicroStrategy, the business intelligence firm led by Michael Saylor. MicroStrategy has made waves in the crypto world for its aggressive Bitcoin-buying strategy, and PlanB believes that this could have a huge impact on Bitcoin’s price. The company has already invested billions of dollars in Bitcoin, and Saylor has plans to purchase even more.

另一个主要推动因素是 Michael Saylor 领导的商业智能公司 MicroStrategy。 MicroStrategy 因其积极的比特币购买策略而在加密世界掀起波澜，PlanB 认为这可能会对比特币的价格产生巨大影响。该公司已经在比特币上投资了数十亿美元，塞勒还计划购买更多。

PlanB highlighted Saylor’s “$42 billion Bitcoin buy program,” which will continue over the next three years, as another factor that could contribute to Bitcoin’s rising price. As large institutions and companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin, demand will likely increase, further fueling upward price movement.

PlanB 强调了 Saylor 的“420 亿美元比特币购买计划”，该计划将在未来三年内持续下去，这是可能导致比特币价格上涨的另一个因素。随着大型机构和公司继续积累比特币，需求可能会增加，进一步推动价格上涨。

Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Inflows

比特币 ETF 和机构资金流入

PlanB also points to the rise of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a significant factor in Bitcoin’s bullish outlook. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has already led to increased institutional interest, and PlanB predicts that this trend will continue, driving more capital into the Bitcoin market.

PlanB 还指出，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的崛起是比特币看涨前景的一个重要因素。美国现货比特币 ETF 的批准已经引起了机构兴趣的增加，PlanB 预测这一趋势将持续下去，推动更多资本进入比特币市场。