量子運算泡沫：炒作與現實的警世故事

量子計算是最有趣的技術前沿之一，它吸引了科學家、投資者和技術愛好者的想像。承諾？解決即使是最先進的超級電腦也需要數十億甚至萬億年才能完成的計算問題。這個夢想推動了量子計算股票的飆升，IonQ（NYSE：IONQ）和 RigettiComputing（納斯達克股票代碼：RGTI）等公司在2024 年末取得了顯著的收益。的事件所顯示的那樣，通往量子霸權的道路遠非平坦。

Quantum computing, a frontier of immense technological significance, has captivated the minds of scientists, investors, and tech enthusiasts. The allure stems from the promise of solving computational problems that would leave even the most advanced supercomputers lagging billions or quadrillions of years behind. This dream fueled a surge in quantum computing stocks, with companies like IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) delivering remarkable gains in late 2024.

量子計算是一個具有巨大技術意義的前沿領域，吸引了科學家、投資者和技術愛好者的目光。這種吸引力源自於解決運算問題的承諾，即使是最先進的超級電腦也會落後數十億或數兆年。這個夢想推動了量子計算股票的飆升，IonQ（NYSE：IONQ）和 RigettiComputing（納斯達克股票代碼：RGTI）等公司在 2024 年末實現了顯著增長。

But recent events reveal that the path to quantum supremacy is anything but smooth.

但最近發生的事件表明，通往量子霸權的道路絕非一帆風順。

Quantum computers operate on qubits, which differ fundamentally from the binary bits in traditional computing. While bits represent either a 0 or a 1, qubits can exist in a superposition, embodying both states simultaneously. This property allows quantum computers to potentially solve complex problems exponentially faster than their classical counterparts.

量子電腦在量子位元上運行，這與傳統計算中的二進位位元有根本的不同。雖然位元代表 0 或 1，但量子位元可以疊加存在，同時體現兩種狀態。這項特性使得量子電腦能夠比經典電腦更快解決複雜問題。

The possibilities are vast. From optimizing supply chains to cracking unbreakable encryption, quantum computing could revolutionize industries. Progress is already underway: Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) recently announced that its Willow quantum chip solved an error correction problem in just five minutes—a task that would take a traditional supercomputer 10 septillion years to complete.

可能性是巨大的。從優化供應鏈到破解牢不可破的加密，量子運算可以徹底改變產業。進展已經在進行中：Alphabet（納斯達克股票代碼：GOOG）最近宣布，其 Willow 量子晶片在短短五分鐘內解決了糾錯問題，而傳統超級電腦需要 10 億年才能完成這項任務。

The excitement surrounding these quantum breakthroughs sent stocks like IonQ and Rigetti soaring in late 2024. Investors flocked to the sector, hoping to get in early on what could be a transformative technology. Yet, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed during a Q&A session at CES 2025, quantum computing’s true potential remains decades away.

圍繞這些量子突破的興奮使得 IonQ 和 Rigetti 等股票在 2024 年底飆升。然而，正如 Nvidia 執行長黃仁勳在 CES 2025 的問答環節中所透露的那樣，量子運算的真正潛力仍然需要幾十年的時間。

Huang remarked, “If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that’d probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”

黃說：「如果你說 15 年會出現非常有用的量子計算機，那可能還處於早期階段。如果你說30，那可能已經太晚了。但如果你選 20 個，我想我們很多人都會相信。

This sobering assessment sent shockwaves through the market. By midday Wednesday, shares of IonQ and Rigetti had plummeted over 40%, erasing much of the gains from their previous rally.

這一發人深省的評估為市場帶來了衝擊。截至週三中午，IonQ 和 Rigetti 的股價已暴跌超過 40%，抹去了先前上漲的大部分漲幅。

Despite recent advances, quantum computing is still in its early stages of development. While Google’s Willow chip achieved an impressive benchmark, the computation it performed was a “toy problem” designed for testing. Quantum computers have yet to demonstrate their superiority over traditional computers in any real-world application.

儘管最近取得了一些進展，但量子計算仍處於發展的早期階段。雖然Google的 Willow 晶片取得了令人印象深刻的基準，但它執行的計算只是一個為測試而設計的「玩具問題」。量子電腦尚未在任何實際應用中證明其相對於傳統電腦的優越性。

This lack of practical use cases reinforces Huang’s point: while quantum computing has immense potential, realizing it will require years, if not decades, of further research and development.

實際用例的缺乏強化了黃的觀點：雖然量子運算具有巨大的潛力，但要實現它需要數年甚至數十年的進一步研究和開發。

As progress continues, investors should be mindful of the discrepancy between innovation and market expectations. Striking a balance between optimism and caution is crucial in navigating this emerging sector. For now, the quantum computing space presents an exciting—but speculative—long-term investment opportunity.

隨著進展的繼續，投資者應注意創新與市場預期之間的差異。在樂觀和謹慎之間取得平衡對於駕馭這個新興產業至關重要。目前，量子運算領域提供了一個令人興奮但具有投機性的長期投資機會。