Quant 預測比特幣在減半事件後將飆升，目標是到 2025 年達到 30 萬美元

量化分析師 PlanB 預測，由於 4 月 19 日即將到來的減半事件，比特幣 (BTC) 將在 2025 年達到 30 萬美元的週期頂部。 PlanB 認為，每四年發生一次的減半將使礦工的獎勵減少一半，這將對 BTC 的價格產生看漲影響，就像過去一樣。分析師觀察到減半前的六個月和減半後的六個月內收益為 2 倍，減半後的 6 至 18 個月內收益為 4 倍。

Quant Analyst Predicts Massive Bitcoin Gains Following Halving Event

量化分析師預測減半事件後比特幣將大幅上漲

April 19th, 2023 - Renowned quantitative analyst PlanB, with a substantial following of 1.9 million on the social media platform X, has issued a bold forecast regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data and cyclical trends, PlanB projects an extraordinary surge in Bitcoin's value, potentially exceeding $300,000 by 2025.

2023年4月19日－在社群媒體平台X上擁有190萬粉絲的著名量化分析師PlanB對比特幣（BTC）的未來做出了大膽預測。根據歷史數據和週期性趨勢，PlanB 預計比特幣的價值將大幅飆升，到 2025 年可能會超過 30 萬美元。

The impetus for this bullish prediction stems from the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 19th, 2023. During this event, the block reward given to Bitcoin miners will be halved, which has historically served as a catalyst for significant price increases. PlanB contends that this halving will once again be a bullish force for Bitcoin, driving its price to unprecedented heights.

這項看漲預測的動力源自於即將於2023 年4 月19 日舉行的比特幣減半事件。上漲的催化劑。 PlanB 認為，這次減半將再次成為比特幣的看漲力量，推動其價格達到前所未有的高度。

PlanB's analysis focuses on Bitcoin's historical price movements around previous halving events. He observes a consistent pattern of 2x gains in the six months leading up to the halving, followed by another 2x gain in the six months after the event. Additionally, a substantial 4x gain is typically observed between six and 18 months after the halving.

PlanB 的分析重點是比特幣在先前減半事件期間的歷史價格走勢。他觀察到在減半前的六個月內收益持續上漲 2 倍，隨後在減半後的六個月內又上漲了 2 倍。此外，減半後 6 至 18 個月內通常會出現 4 倍的大幅成長。

"In my estimation, the upcoming Bitcoin halving will not deviate from this historical trend," PlanB states. "All significant Bitcoin price increases have coincided with halving events. Strategic trading by buying six months before the halving and selling 18 months after will yield superior returns compared to a simple buy-and-hold strategy. Bitcoin will likely surpass $100,000 in 2024, and its cycle top could reach an astonishing $300,000 by 2025."

PlanB 表示：“據我估計，即將到來的比特幣減半不會偏離這一歷史趨勢。” 「比特幣價格的所有大幅上漲都與減半事件同時發生。與簡單的買入並持有策略相比，透過在減半前6 個月買入並在減半後18 個月賣出的策略交易將產生更高的回報。

PlanB emphasizes that this anticipated price surge is not expected to occur immediately following the halving event. He cautions that the market may experience a brief period of consolidation before the bullish momentum fully materializes.

PlanB 強調，這種預期的價格飆升預計不會在減半事件後立即發生。他警告說，在看漲勢頭完全實現之前，市場可能會經歷短暫的盤整期。

"We should not anticipate an immediate price breakout in the days following the halving," PlanB explains. "We have already witnessed a substantial price increase from $34,000 six months before the halving to $62,000 approximately two days before the event. In my view, we can expect another 2x gain in the six to ten months following the halving. This will be followed by a final 2x-4x surge driven by fear of missing out."

PlanB 解釋說：“我們不應該預期減半後的幾天內價格會立即突破。” 「我們已經見證了價格從減半前六個月的34,000 美元大幅上漲至減半前兩天左右的62,000 美元。在我看來，我們預計在減半後的六到十個月內將再上漲2 倍。

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $64,489, marking a 1.5% increase over the last 24 hours. As the halving event approaches, market participants are eagerly anticipating the potential for significant price volatility and the realization of PlanB's bold predictions.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 64,489 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 1.5%。隨著減半事件的臨近，市場參與者熱切地期待著價格大幅波動的可能性以及 PlanB 大膽預測的實現。