Quant 预测比特币在减半事件后将飙升，目标是到 2025 年达到 30 万美元

量化分析师 PlanB 预测，由于 4 月 19 日即将到来的减半事件，比特币 (BTC) 将在 2025 年达到 30 万美元的周期顶部。 PlanB 认为，每四年发生一次的减半将使矿工的奖励减少一半，这将对 BTC 的价格产生看涨影响，就像过去一样。分析师观察到减半前的六个月和减半后的六个月内收益为 2 倍，减半后的 6 至 18 个月内收益为 4 倍。

Quant Analyst Predicts Massive Bitcoin Gains Following Halving Event

量化分析师预测减半事件后比特币将大幅上涨

April 19th, 2023 - Renowned quantitative analyst PlanB, with a substantial following of 1.9 million on the social media platform X, has issued a bold forecast regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data and cyclical trends, PlanB projects an extraordinary surge in Bitcoin's value, potentially exceeding $300,000 by 2025.

2023年4月19日——在社交媒体平台X上拥有190万粉丝的著名量化分析师PlanB对比特币（BTC）的未来做出了大胆预测。根据历史数据和周期性趋势，PlanB 预计比特币的价值将大幅飙升，到 2025 年可能会超过 30 万美元。

The impetus for this bullish prediction stems from the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 19th, 2023. During this event, the block reward given to Bitcoin miners will be halved, which has historically served as a catalyst for significant price increases. PlanB contends that this halving will once again be a bullish force for Bitcoin, driving its price to unprecedented heights.

这一看涨预测的推动力源于即将于 2023 年 4 月 19 日举行的比特币减半事件。在此事件期间，给予比特币矿工的区块奖励将减半，这在历史上一直是价格大幅上涨的催化剂。 PlanB 认为，这次减半将再次成为比特币的看涨力量，推动其价格达到前所未有的高度。

PlanB's analysis focuses on Bitcoin's historical price movements around previous halving events. He observes a consistent pattern of 2x gains in the six months leading up to the halving, followed by another 2x gain in the six months after the event. Additionally, a substantial 4x gain is typically observed between six and 18 months after the halving.

PlanB 的分析重点是比特币在之前减半事件期间的历史价格走势。他观察到在减半前的六个月内收益持续上涨 2 倍，随后在减半后的六个月内又上涨了 2 倍。此外，减半后 6 至 18 个月内通常会出现 4 倍的大幅增长。

"In my estimation, the upcoming Bitcoin halving will not deviate from this historical trend," PlanB states. "All significant Bitcoin price increases have coincided with halving events. Strategic trading by buying six months before the halving and selling 18 months after will yield superior returns compared to a simple buy-and-hold strategy. Bitcoin will likely surpass $100,000 in 2024, and its cycle top could reach an astonishing $300,000 by 2025."

PlanB 表示：“据我估计，即将到来的比特币减半不会偏离这一历史趋势。” “比特币价格的所有大幅上涨都与减半事件同时发生。与简单的买入并持有策略相比，通过在减半前 6 个月买入并在减半后 18 个月卖出的策略交易将产生更高的回报。比特币在 2024 年可能会超过 10 万美元，并且到 2025 年，其周期峰值可能会达到惊人的 30 万美元。”

PlanB emphasizes that this anticipated price surge is not expected to occur immediately following the halving event. He cautions that the market may experience a brief period of consolidation before the bullish momentum fully materializes.

PlanB 强调，这种预期的价格飙升预计不会在减半事件后立即发生。他警告说，在看涨势头完全实现之前，市场可能会经历短暂的盘整期。

"We should not anticipate an immediate price breakout in the days following the halving," PlanB explains. "We have already witnessed a substantial price increase from $34,000 six months before the halving to $62,000 approximately two days before the event. In my view, we can expect another 2x gain in the six to ten months following the halving. This will be followed by a final 2x-4x surge driven by fear of missing out."

PlanB 解释说：“我们不应预期减半后的几天内价格会立即突破。” “我们已经见证了价格从减半前六个月的 34,000 美元大幅上涨至减半前两天左右的 62,000 美元。在我看来，我们预计在减半后的六到十个月内将再上涨 2 倍。随后将是由于担心错过机会，最终的股价飙升了 2-4 倍。”

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $64,489, marking a 1.5% increase over the last 24 hours. As the halving event approaches, market participants are eagerly anticipating the potential for significant price volatility and the realization of PlanB's bold predictions.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 64,489 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 1.5%。随着减半事件的临近，市场参与者热切地期待着价格大幅波动的可能性以及 PlanB 大胆预测的实现。