鮑威爾走鋼索的貨幣政策影響比特幣減半前景

傑羅姆·鮑威爾對即將到來的比特幣減半事件的影響可能會挑戰預期的牛市。儘管減半傳統上會引發價格飆升，但鮑威爾維持高利率對抗通膨的承諾可能會減輕影響。此外，由於看跌訊號，市場對比特幣減半後價格走勢的普遍共識仍低迷。

Powell's Monetary Policy Tightrope Impacts Bitcoin's Halving Prospects

鮑威爾的貨幣政策走鋼索影響比特幣減半前景

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for May 2024, has traditionally signaled a bull market surge for the cryptocurrency. However, the influence of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's monetary policy stance on this expected rally has become a topic of intense speculation.

即將於 2024 年 5 月舉行的比特幣減半事件傳統上預示著加密貨幣多頭市場的飆升。然而，聯準會主席鮑威爾的貨幣政策立場對這一預期反彈的影響已成為人們強烈猜測的話題。

Powell's recent comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium have sent shockwaves through the financial markets, indicating the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to combating inflation by maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period. This strategic shift has significant implications for Bitcoin's price trajectory, particularly in light of the impending halving event.

鮑威爾近期在傑克遜霍爾經濟研討會上的言論震驚了金融市場，顯示聯準會堅定不移地致力於透過長期維持較高利率來應對通膨。這一戰略轉變對比特幣的價格軌跡有重大影響，特別是考慮到即將發生的減半事件。

Traditionally, the halving event reduces the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks by half, resulting in a diminished supply of the cryptocurrency. This scarcity, combined with strong demand, has historically led to a price surge. However, Powell's policy stance introduces a nuanced challenge to this anticipated rally.

傳統上，減半事件會將開採新比特幣區塊的獎勵減少一半，導致加密貨幣的供應減少。這種稀缺性加上強勁的需求，歷來導致價格飆升。然而，鮑威爾的政策立場對這一預期的反彈提出了微妙的挑戰。

Higher interest rates typically benefit safer assets, such as US Treasury bonds, attracting investors away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. With Powell's commitment to high rates to address inflation concerns, the impact of the upcoming halving event could be potentially muted.

較高的利率通常有利於較安全的資產，例如美國國債，吸引投資者遠離加密貨幣等風險較高的資產。由於鮑威爾承諾透過高利率來解決通膨問題，即將到來的減半事件的影響可能會減弱。

Furthermore, the robust performance of the US economy, marked by strong job growth and retail sales, suggests it might withstand higher interest rates without significant downturns. This economic strength complicates the Federal Reserve's approach to controlling inflation, potentially leading to a prolonged period of higher rates. For Bitcoin, this could mean a dampened halving effect as the general investment climate favors less volatile assets.

此外，以強勁的就業成長和零售銷售為標誌的美國經濟表現強勁，表明美國可能會承受更高的利率而不會出現嚴重衰退。這種經濟實力使聯準會控制通膨的方法變得複雜，有可能導致長期的高利率。對於比特幣來說，這可能意味著減半效應減弱，因為整體投資環境有利於波動性較小的資產。

Additionally, several experts, including Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, have expressed concerns about a potential negative price action following the Bitcoin halving. This could make traders more cautious before entering the market.

此外，包括加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 在內的多位專家對比特幣減半後可能出現的負面價格走勢表示擔憂。這可能會讓交易者在進入市場之前更加謹慎。

While Jerome Powell's stance on maintaining the current interest rates might not completely extinguish the Bitcoin halving excitement, it certainly introduces complex dynamics into the market. The interplay between Federal Reserve policies and the Bitcoin halving event could cause investors to be cautious.

雖然傑羅姆鮑威爾維持當前利率的立場可能不會完全消除比特幣減半的興奮，但它肯定會給市場帶來複雜的動態。聯準會政策與比特幣減半事件之間的相互作用可能會導致投資者保持謹慎。

Meanwhile, the immediate aftermath of Powell's announcement has resulted in a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin. The BTC price plummeted below $60,000 for the first time since February 2024, highlighting the impact of Powell's hawkish stance on the cryptocurrency's price action.

與此同時，鮑威爾宣布這項消息後立即導致比特幣價格大幅下跌。 BTC 價格自 2024 年 2 月以來首次跌破 6 萬美元，凸顯了鮑威爾的鷹派立場對加密貨幣價格走勢的影響。

Technical analysis of Bitcoin's daily price chart suggests that traders are waiting for the halving event to impact the market before entering it. If Bitcoin price continues to decline, the token might drop to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support near $58,000. A breach of this immediate support level could mean Bitcoin price testing the support near $52,200 before recovering.

對比特幣每日價格圖表的技術分析表明，交易者正在等待減半事件影響市場，然後再進入。如果比特幣價格繼續下跌，該代幣可能會跌至 58,000 美元附近的 100 天指數移動平均線 (EMA) 支撐位。突破這一即時支撐位可能意味著比特幣價格在恢復之前會測試 52,200 美元附近的支撐位。

However, it's important to note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin remained comfortably neutral, at 39.39, leaving bulls plenty of room to rally before the momentum oscillator becomes overbought. If traders can ignore Powell's announcement and its potential impact on Bitcoin halving, the token will likely start rallying.

然而，值得注意的是，比特幣的相對強度指數（RSI）保持在 39.39 的中性水平，這為多頭在動量振盪器變得超買之前留下了足夠的反彈空間。如果交易者可以忽略鮑威爾的聲明及其對比特幣減半的潛在影響，那麼該代幣可能會開始反彈。

In that context, the 20-day EMA forms the first crucial resistance for the token near $66,300. Breaking and consolidating above this immediate resistance could help BTC's price rally to the resistance near $72,500.

在這種背景下，20 日均線形成了該代幣在 66,300 美元附近的第一個關鍵阻力位。突破並鞏固這一直接阻力位可能有助於 BTC 價格反彈至 72,500 美元附近的阻力位。

Overall, while the halving event is typically considered a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, Powell's monetary policy stance and the current market conditions introduce uncertainty into the equation. Investors should carefully consider the interplay between these factors before making any investment decisions.

總體而言，雖然減半事件通常被認為是比特幣的看漲催化劑，但鮑威爾的貨幣政策立場和當前的市場狀況為比特幣帶來了不確定性。在做出任何投資決定之前，投資者應仔細考慮這些因素之間的相互作用。