鲍威尔走钢丝的货币政策影响比特币减半前景

杰罗姆·鲍威尔对即将到来的比特币减半事件的影响可能会挑战预期的牛市。尽管减半传统上会引发价格飙升，但鲍威尔维持高利率以对抗通胀的承诺可能会减轻影响。此外，由于看跌信号，市场对比特币减半后价格走势的普遍共识仍然低迷。

Powell's Monetary Policy Tightrope Impacts Bitcoin's Halving Prospects

鲍威尔的货币政策走钢丝影响比特币减半前景

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for May 2024, has traditionally signaled a bull market surge for the cryptocurrency. However, the influence of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's monetary policy stance on this expected rally has become a topic of intense speculation.

即将于 2024 年 5 月举行的比特币减半事件传统上预示着加密货币牛市的飙升。然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的货币政策立场对这一预期反弹的影响已成为人们强烈猜测的话题。

Powell's recent comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium have sent shockwaves through the financial markets, indicating the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to combating inflation by maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period. This strategic shift has significant implications for Bitcoin's price trajectory, particularly in light of the impending halving event.

鲍威尔近期在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的言论震惊了金融市场，表明美联储坚定不移地致力于通过长期维持较高利率来应对通胀。这一战略转变对比特币的价格轨迹具有重大影响，特别是考虑到即将发生的减半事件。

Traditionally, the halving event reduces the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks by half, resulting in a diminished supply of the cryptocurrency. This scarcity, combined with strong demand, has historically led to a price surge. However, Powell's policy stance introduces a nuanced challenge to this anticipated rally.

传统上，减半事件会将开采新比特币区块的奖励减少一半，导致加密货币的供应减少。这种稀缺性加上强劲的需求，历来导致价格飙升。然而，鲍威尔的政策立场对这一预期的反弹提出了微妙的挑战。

Higher interest rates typically benefit safer assets, such as US Treasury bonds, attracting investors away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. With Powell's commitment to high rates to address inflation concerns, the impact of the upcoming halving event could be potentially muted.

较高的利率通常有利于更安全的资产，例如美国国债，吸引投资者远离加密货币等风险较高的资产。由于鲍威尔承诺通过高利率来解决通胀问题，即将到来的减半事件的影响可能会减弱。

Furthermore, the robust performance of the US economy, marked by strong job growth and retail sales, suggests it might withstand higher interest rates without significant downturns. This economic strength complicates the Federal Reserve's approach to controlling inflation, potentially leading to a prolonged period of higher rates. For Bitcoin, this could mean a dampened halving effect as the general investment climate favors less volatile assets.

此外，以强劲的就业增长和零售销售为标志的美国经济表现强劲，表明美国可能会承受更高的利率而不会出现严重衰退。这种经济实力使美联储控制通胀的方法变得复杂，有可能导致长期的高利率。对于比特币来说，这可能意味着减半效应减弱，因为总体投资环境有利于波动性较小的资产。

Additionally, several experts, including Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, have expressed concerns about a potential negative price action following the Bitcoin halving. This could make traders more cautious before entering the market.

此外，包括加密货币交易所 BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 在内的多位专家对比特币减半后可能出现的负面价格走势表示担忧。这可能会让交易者在进入市场之前更加谨慎。

While Jerome Powell's stance on maintaining the current interest rates might not completely extinguish the Bitcoin halving excitement, it certainly introduces complex dynamics into the market. The interplay between Federal Reserve policies and the Bitcoin halving event could cause investors to be cautious.

虽然杰罗姆·鲍威尔维持当前利率的立场可能不会完全消除比特币减半的兴奋，但它肯定会给市场带来复杂的动态。美联储政策与比特币减半事件之间的相互作用可能会导致投资者保持谨慎。

Meanwhile, the immediate aftermath of Powell's announcement has resulted in a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin. The BTC price plummeted below $60,000 for the first time since February 2024, highlighting the impact of Powell's hawkish stance on the cryptocurrency's price action.

与此同时，鲍威尔宣布这一消息后立即导致比特币价格大幅下跌。 BTC 价格自 2024 年 2 月以来首次跌破 60,000 美元，凸显了鲍威尔的鹰派立场对加密货币价格走势的影响。

Technical analysis of Bitcoin's daily price chart suggests that traders are waiting for the halving event to impact the market before entering it. If Bitcoin price continues to decline, the token might drop to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support near $58,000. A breach of this immediate support level could mean Bitcoin price testing the support near $52,200 before recovering.

对比特币每日价格图表的技术分析表明，交易者正在等待减半事件影响市场，然后再入场。如果比特币价格继续下跌，该代币可能会跌至 58,000 美元附近的 100 天指数移动平均线 (EMA) 支撑位。突破这一即时支撑位可能意味着比特币价格在恢复之前会测试 52,200 美元附近的支撑位。

However, it's important to note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin remained comfortably neutral, at 39.39, leaving bulls plenty of room to rally before the momentum oscillator becomes overbought. If traders can ignore Powell's announcement and its potential impact on Bitcoin halving, the token will likely start rallying.

然而，值得注意的是，比特币的相对强度指数（RSI）保持在 39.39 的中性水平，这为多头在动量振荡器变得超买之前留下了足够的反弹空间。如果交易者可以忽略鲍威尔的声明及其对比特币减半的潜在影响，那么该代币可能会开始反弹。

In that context, the 20-day EMA forms the first crucial resistance for the token near $66,300. Breaking and consolidating above this immediate resistance could help BTC's price rally to the resistance near $72,500.

在这种背景下，20 日均线形成了该代币在 66,300 美元附近的第一个关键阻力位。突破并巩固这一直接阻力位可能有助于 BTC 价格反弹至 72,500 美元附近的阻力位。

Overall, while the halving event is typically considered a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, Powell's monetary policy stance and the current market conditions introduce uncertainty into the equation. Investors should carefully consider the interplay between these factors before making any investment decisions.

总体而言，虽然减半事件通常被认为是比特币的看涨催化剂，但鲍威尔的货币政策立场和当前的市场状况给比特币带来了不确定性。在做出任何投资决定之前，投资者应仔细考虑这些因素之间的相互作用。