過去的觀點預示著未來的曙光：新技術提高了 ChatGPT 的預測準確性

研究人員發現，促使 ChatGPT 創建一個預測未來的故事（而不是直接預測）會帶來更準確的結果。 Reddit 上的用戶測試了該技術，暗示 6 月升息和 2030 年金融危機。

Predicting the Future with a Glimpse into the Past

回顧過去預測未來

A novel prompting technique has emerged to elicit predictions from ChatGPT, a language model renowned for its aversion to forecasting. Researchers have discovered that prompting ChatGPT to narrate future events, as if reflecting upon them from a bygone era, yields more accurate predictions.

一種新穎的提示技術已經出現，可以從 ChatGPT 引發預測，ChatGPT 是一種以厭惡預測而聞名的語言模型。研究人員發現，促使 ChatGPT 敘述未來事件，就像回顧過去的時代一樣，可以產生更準確的預測。

To validate this technique, researchers evaluated 100 prompts, contrasting direct predictions (e.g., identifying the Oscar winner for Best Actor in 2022) with narrative prompts (e.g., asking ChatGPT to recount a family watching the 2022 Oscars and describe the moment the Best Actor winner is announced). The narrative prompts produced more accurate results.

為了驗證這項技術，研究人員評估了100 個提示，將直接預測（例如，確定2022 年奧斯卡最佳男主角得主）與敘述性提示（例如，要求ChatGPT 講述一個家庭觀看2022 年奧斯卡頒獎典禮並描述最佳男主角得主的時刻）進行對比已公佈）。敘述提示產生了更準確的結果。

Similarly, to forecast interest rate movements, researchers instructed ChatGPT to imagine Fed Chair Jerome Powell reflecting on past events. Redditors have experimented with this technique, suggesting a possible interest rate hike in June and a financial crisis in 2030.

同樣，為了預測利率變動，研究人員指示 ChatGPT 想像聯準會主席鮑威爾反思過去的事件。 Reddit 用戶已經嘗試過這種技術，暗示 6 月可能升息，2030 年可能爆發金融危機。

Theoretically, prompting ChatGPT to create a Cointelegraph news article set in 2025, recounting Bitcoin's significant price fluctuations, would result in a more accurate price forecast than a direct prediction query.

從理論上講，促使 ChatGPT 創建一篇以 2025 年為背景的 Cointelegraph 新聞文章，講述比特幣的重大價格波動，將比直接預測查詢產生更準確的價格預測。

However, the research faces potential limitations. The researchers selected the 2022 Oscars as a known event, assuming ChatGPT's knowledge cutoff in September 2021. However, ChatGPT has been known to generate information beyond its training data.

然而，該研究面臨潛在的限制。研究人員選擇 2022 年奧斯卡頒獎典禮作為已知賽事，假設 ChatGPT 的知識截止日期為 2021 年 9 月。 然而，眾所周知，ChatGPT 會產生超出其訓練資料的資訊。

Additionally, OpenAI appears to have intentionally hindered ChatGPT's predictive capabilities, suggesting that this technique may be a temporary workaround rather than a reliable solution.

此外，OpenAI 似乎故意阻礙 ChatGPT 的預測能力，這表明該技術可能是一種臨時解決方法，而不是可靠的解決方案。

Related Findings in the Realm of AI

人工智慧領域的相關發現

A parallel study revealed that the best approach to solving 50 math problems with LLama2, a cousin of ChatGPT, was to present it as a mission to guide the Enterprise spaceship through turbulence in Star Trek.

一項平行研究表明，使用 LLama2（ChatGPT 的表親）解決 50 道數學問題的最佳方法是將其呈現為引導企業號飛船穿越星際迷航中的湍流的任務。

However, this method proved inconsistent. Solving 100 math problems required telling the AI that the President's advisor would perish if it failed to provide correct answers.

然而，事實證明這種方法並不一致。解決 100 道數學問題需要告訴人工智慧，如果不能提供正確答案，總統顧問就會滅亡。

Boston Dynamics' Uncanny Atlas Robot

波士頓動力公司的 Uncanny Atlas 機器人

Boston Dynamics has unveiled its latest Atlas robot, showcasing remarkable agility reminiscent of the possessed child in The Exorcist.

波士頓動力公司推出了最新的 Atlas 機器人，展現出非凡的敏捷性，讓人想起《驅魔人》中被附身的孩子。

"It's going to be capable of a set of motions that people aren't," said CEO Robert Playter in an interview with TechCrunch. "There will be very practical uses for that."

「它將能夠執行一系列人類無法執行的動作，」執行長 Robert Playter 在接受 TechCrunch 採訪時表示。 “這將有非常實際的用途。”

This iteration of Atlas is more compact, fully electric, and devoid of hydraulics. Hyundai plans to test Atlas as a robotic worker in its factories early next year.

Atlas 的這個迭代更加緊湊，全電動，並且沒有液壓系統。現代汽車計劃在明年初在其工廠測試 Atlas 作為機器人工人。

Humane's AI Pin Faces Scathing Reviews

Humane 的 AI Pin 面臨嚴厲評論

Wearable AI devices, exemplified by the Humane AI pin, have generated buzz but struggled to demonstrate their worth.

以 Humane AI pin 為代表的可穿戴人工智慧設備已經引起了轟動，但很難證明其價值。

The Humane AI pin, worn on the chest, interacts with voice commands and projects text onto the user's hand. However, tech reviewer Marques Brownlee condemned it as "the worst product I've ever reviewed," citing frequent errors, poor interface, limited battery life, and sluggishness compared to Google.

佩戴在胸前的人性化人工智慧別針可與語音命令交互，並將文字投射到使用者的手上。然而，技術評論家馬克斯·布朗利 (Marques Brownlee) 譴責它是“我評論過的最糟糕的產品”，理由是錯誤頻繁、界面不佳、電池壽命有限，而且與谷歌相比速度緩慢。

Other reviewers echo Brownlee's dissatisfaction. Wired gave it 4 out of 10, criticizing its slow performance, poor camera, daylight-impaired projector, and overheating issues. However, it praised its real-time translation and phone call capabilities.

其他評論家也表達了布朗利的不滿。 《連線》雜誌給它打了 4 分（滿分 10 分），批評其性能緩慢、相機較差、投影機在日光下受損以及過熱問題。不過，它稱讚了其實時翻譯和電話功能。

The Verge acknowledged the potential of the concept but deemed the actual device "thoroughly unfinished and... broken in so many unacceptable ways."

The Verge 承認這一概念的潛力，但認為實際設備「完全未完成，並且...以許多不可接受的方式損壞」。

Another AI wearable, The Rabbit r1, aims to replace multiple phone apps with an AI assistant. However, reviewers have questioned its advantages over smartphones.

另一款人工智慧穿戴裝置 The Rabbit r1 旨在用人工智慧助理取代多個手機應用程式。然而，評論家質疑它相對於智慧型手機的優勢。

"The voice control interface that does away with apps completely is a good starting point, but again, that's something my Pixel 8 could feasibly do in the future," concluded TechRadar's preview of the device.

TechRadar對該設備的預覽總結道：“完全擺脫應用程式的語音控制介面是一個很好的起點，但同樣，這也是我的 Pixel 8 未來可以實現的功能。”

AI Perpetuates Holocaust Survivors' Legacy

人工智慧延續大屠殺倖存者的遺產

The Sydney Jewish Museum has unveiled an AI-powered interactive exhibition that enables visitors to engage with Holocaust survivors and receive real-time responses.

雪梨猶太博物館推出了一個由人工智慧驅動的互動展覽，使遊客能夠與大屠殺倖存者互動並獲得即時回應。

Before his passing in 2021, death camp survivor Eddie Jaku spent days answering over 1,000 questions about his experiences before a 23-camera rig. The system transforms visitor inquiries into search terms, matching them with appropriate answers from Jaku's recorded footage, creating a conversational experience.

死亡集中營倖存者 Eddie Jaku 在 2021 年去世之前，花了幾天時間在 23 台攝影機前回答了 1000 多個有關他經歷的問題。該系統將訪客的詢問轉化為搜尋字詞，將其與 Jaku 錄製的鏡頭中的適當答案進行匹配，從而創造對話體驗。

Amidst rising antisemitism, this AI application serves as a powerful tool to preserve the first-hand accounts of Holocaust survivors for future generations.

在反猶太主義日益高漲的背景下，這款人工智慧應用程式成為了一個強大的工具，可以為子孫後代保存大屠殺倖存者的第一手資料。

AI-Generated Content: A Potential Pandora's Box

人工智慧生成的內容：潛在的潘朵拉魔盒

Approximately 10% of Google search results now lead to AI-generated spam content. Spammers have long exploited SEO to promote websites filled with low-quality articles, but generative AI has exacerbated the problem.

現在，大約 10% 的 Google 搜尋結果會導致人工智慧產生的垃圾內容。垃圾郵件發送者長期以來一直利用搜尋引擎優化來推廣充滿低品質文章的網站，但生成式人工智慧加劇了這個問題。

Besides rendering Google search unreliable, there are concerns that if AI-generated content becomes the dominant form of online material, we may face "model collapse," where AIs trained on subpar AI content produce even lower-quality results.

除了使谷歌搜尋變得不可靠之外，人們還擔心，如果人工智慧生成的內容成為線上材料的主要形式，我們可能會面臨“模型崩潰”，即接受低於標準人工智慧內容訓練的人工智慧會產生品質更低的結果。

A related phenomenon, known as "knowledge collapse," has been identified in humans, according to a recent Cornell research paper. The author, Andrew J. Peterson, argues that AIs gravitate toward "mid-curve" ideas, neglecting less common or eccentric perspectives:

根據康乃爾大學最近的一篇研究論文，在人類中發現了一種被稱為「知識崩潰」的相關現象。作者安德魯·J·彼得森 (Andrew J. Peterson) 認為，人工智慧傾向於「中間曲線」想法，而忽略了不太常見或古怪的觀點：

"While large language models are trained on vast amounts of diverse data, they naturally generate output towards the 'center of the distribution."

“雖然大型語言模型是根據大量不同的數據進行訓練的，但它們自然會產生朝向‘分佈中心’的輸出。”

Peterson suggests that the diversity of human thought could diminish over time as AIs homogenize ideas. The paper advocates for subsidies to protect the diversity of knowledge, similar to those supporting less popular academic and artistic endeavors.

彼得森認為，隨著人工智慧使思想同質化，人類思想的多樣性可能會隨著時間的推移而減少。該論文主張提供補貼以保護知識的多樣性，類似於支持不太受歡迎的學術和藝術活動的補貼。

Users Should Demand Paid AI Services

用戶應該要求付費人工智慧服務

Google has been promoting its Gemini 1.5 model to businesses, emphasizing its safety features and ideological neutrality, which were lacking in the consumer version.

谷歌一直向企業推廣其Gemini 1.5型號，強調其安全功能和意識形態中立性，而這些是消費者版本所缺乏的。

While the consumer version was shut down due to concerns over images of diverse Nazis, the enterprise version reportedly remained unaffected.

雖然消費者版本因擔心不同納粹分子的形象而關閉，但據報導企業版本並未受到影響。

This raises concerns that an ad-driven "free" model for AI, akin to the disastrous model for the web, could lead to users becoming the product, bombarded with advertisements as services deteriorate.

這引發了人們的擔憂，廣告驅動的人工智慧「免費」模式類似於災難性的網路模式，可能會導致用戶成為產品，隨著服務惡化而受到廣告轟炸。

Non-Coders and AI Collaboration: A Complex Journey

非編碼人員與人工智慧協作：複雜的旅程

Author and futurist Daniel Jeffries attempted to create a complex app with AI assistance, despite his limited coding skills. He encountered challenges and frustration but ultimately succeeded.

作家兼未來學家丹尼爾·傑弗里斯（Daniel Jeffries）儘管編碼能力有限，但仍試圖在人工智慧的幫助下創建一個複雜的應用程式。他遇到了挑戰和挫折，但最終成功了。

However, Jeffries concluded that AI will not displace coders. Instead, skilled coders with the ability to clearly articulate their requirements will be in even higher demand.

然而，傑弗里斯得出的結論是，人工智慧不會取代程式設計師。相反，對能夠清楚表達自己需求的熟練編碼員的需求將會更高。

AI News Roundup

人工智慧新聞綜述

• Token holders have approved the merger of Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean Protocol, forming the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance.
• Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis remains tight-lipped about the rumored $100 billion supercomputer project codenamed "Stargate," but has confirmed significant investments in AI.
• Baidu's Chinese ChatGPT counterpart, Ernie, has doubled its user base to 200 million since October.
• Researchers found that AI image generators could create election disinformation four out of 10 times, highlighting the need for stronger safety measures or improved watermarking systems.
• Instagram is recruiting influencers for a program where their AI-generated avatars can interact with fans.
• Guardian columnist Alex Hern theorizes that ChatGPT's frequent use of the word "delve" may be a side effect of the input provided by low-cost human workers in Nigeria, where the term is common.
• OpenAI has released an enhanced version of GPT-4 Turbo through ChatGPT Plus, offering improved problem-solving capabilities, better conversation flow, and reduced verbosity. It also includes a 50% discount for off-peak batch processing tasks.

代幣持有者已批准Fetch.ai、SingularityNET 和Ocean Protocol 合併，組成人工超級智慧聯盟。對AI. 百度的中文ChatGPT 同行Ernie 自10 月以來其用戶基數已翻一番，達到2 億。安全措施或改進水印系統的必要性。 Hern) 推測，ChatGPT 頻繁使用「深入」一詞可能是尼日利亞低成本人力提供意見的副作用，其中OpenAI 透過ChatGPT Plus 發布了GPT-4 Turbo 的增強版，提供改進的問題解決能力、更好的對話流程並減少冗長。它還包括非高峰批次任務 50% 的折扣。