过去的观点预示着未来的曙光：新技术提高了 ChatGPT 的预测准确性

研究人员发现，促使 ChatGPT 创建一个预测未来的故事（而不是直接预测）会带来更准确的结果。 Reddit 上的用户测试了该技术，暗示 6 月加息和 2030 年金融危机。然而，由于 ChatGPT 有限的训练数据和 OpenAI 潜在的故意限制，人们开始担心。

Predicting the Future with a Glimpse into the Past

回顾过去预测未来

A novel prompting technique has emerged to elicit predictions from ChatGPT, a language model renowned for its aversion to forecasting. Researchers have discovered that prompting ChatGPT to narrate future events, as if reflecting upon them from a bygone era, yields more accurate predictions.

一种新颖的提示技术已经出现，可以从 ChatGPT 中引发预测，ChatGPT 是一种以厌恶预测而闻名的语言模型。研究人员发现，促使 ChatGPT 叙述未来事件，就像回顾过去的时代一样，可以产生更准确的预测。

To validate this technique, researchers evaluated 100 prompts, contrasting direct predictions (e.g., identifying the Oscar winner for Best Actor in 2022) with narrative prompts (e.g., asking ChatGPT to recount a family watching the 2022 Oscars and describe the moment the Best Actor winner is announced). The narrative prompts produced more accurate results.

为了验证这项技术，研究人员评估了 100 个提示，将直接预测（例如，确定 2022 年奥斯卡最佳男主角获得者）与叙述性提示（例如，要求 ChatGPT 讲述一个家庭观看 2022 年奥斯卡颁奖典礼并描述最佳男主角获得者的时刻）进行对比已公布）。叙述提示产生了更准确的结果。

Similarly, to forecast interest rate movements, researchers instructed ChatGPT to imagine Fed Chair Jerome Powell reflecting on past events. Redditors have experimented with this technique, suggesting a possible interest rate hike in June and a financial crisis in 2030.

同样，为了预测利率变动，研究人员指示 ChatGPT 想象美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔反思过去的事件。 Reddit 用户已经尝试过这种技术，暗示 6 月可能加息，2030 年可能爆发金融危机。

Theoretically, prompting ChatGPT to create a Cointelegraph news article set in 2025, recounting Bitcoin's significant price fluctuations, would result in a more accurate price forecast than a direct prediction query.

从理论上讲，促使 ChatGPT 创建一篇以 2025 年为背景的 Cointelegraph 新闻文章，讲述比特币的重大价格波动，将比直接预测查询产生更准确的价格预测。

However, the research faces potential limitations. The researchers selected the 2022 Oscars as a known event, assuming ChatGPT's knowledge cutoff in September 2021. However, ChatGPT has been known to generate information beyond its training data.

然而，该研究面临潜在的局限性。研究人员选择 2022 年奥斯卡颁奖典礼作为已知赛事，假设 ChatGPT 的知识截止日期为 2021 年 9 月。然而，众所周知，ChatGPT 会生成超出其训练数据的信息。

Additionally, OpenAI appears to have intentionally hindered ChatGPT's predictive capabilities, suggesting that this technique may be a temporary workaround rather than a reliable solution.

此外，OpenAI 似乎故意阻碍 ChatGPT 的预测能力，这表明该技术可能是一种临时解决方法，而不是可靠的解决方案。

Related Findings in the Realm of AI

人工智能领域的相关发现

A parallel study revealed that the best approach to solving 50 math problems with LLama2, a cousin of ChatGPT, was to present it as a mission to guide the Enterprise spaceship through turbulence in Star Trek.

一项平行研究表明，使用 LLama2（ChatGPT 的表亲）解决 50 道数学问题的最佳方法是将其呈现为引导企业号飞船穿越星际迷航中的湍流的任务。

However, this method proved inconsistent. Solving 100 math problems required telling the AI that the President's advisor would perish if it failed to provide correct answers.

然而，事实证明这种方法并不一致。解决 100 道数学问题需要告诉人工智能，如果不能提供正确答案，总统顾问就会灭亡。

Boston Dynamics' Uncanny Atlas Robot

波士顿动力公司的 Uncanny Atlas 机器人

Boston Dynamics has unveiled its latest Atlas robot, showcasing remarkable agility reminiscent of the possessed child in The Exorcist.

波士顿动力公司推出了最新的 Atlas 机器人，展示出非凡的敏捷性，让人想起《驱魔人》中被附身的孩子。

"It's going to be capable of a set of motions that people aren't," said CEO Robert Playter in an interview with TechCrunch. "There will be very practical uses for that."

“它将能够执行一系列人类无法执行的动作，”首席执行官罗伯特·普莱特 (Robert Playter) 在接受 TechCrunch 采访时表示。 “这将有非常实际的用途。”

This iteration of Atlas is more compact, fully electric, and devoid of hydraulics. Hyundai plans to test Atlas as a robotic worker in its factories early next year.

Atlas 的这一迭代更加紧凑，全电动，并且没有液压系统。现代汽车计划明年初在其工厂测试 Atlas 作为机器人工人。

Humane's AI Pin Faces Scathing Reviews

Humane 的 AI Pin 面临严厉评论

Wearable AI devices, exemplified by the Humane AI pin, have generated buzz but struggled to demonstrate their worth.

以 Humane AI pin 为代表的可穿戴人工智能设备已经引起了轰动，但很难证明其价值。

The Humane AI pin, worn on the chest, interacts with voice commands and projects text onto the user's hand. However, tech reviewer Marques Brownlee condemned it as "the worst product I've ever reviewed," citing frequent errors, poor interface, limited battery life, and sluggishness compared to Google.

佩戴在胸前的人性化人工智能别针可与语音命令交互，并将文本投射到用户的手上。然而，技术评论家马克斯·布朗利 (Marques Brownlee) 谴责它是“我评论过的最糟糕的产品”，理由是错误频繁、界面不佳、电池寿命有限，而且与谷歌相比速度缓慢。

Other reviewers echo Brownlee's dissatisfaction. Wired gave it 4 out of 10, criticizing its slow performance, poor camera, daylight-impaired projector, and overheating issues. However, it praised its real-time translation and phone call capabilities.

其他评论家也表达了布朗利的不满。 《连线》杂志给它打了 4 分（满分 10 分），批评其性能缓慢、摄像头较差、投影仪在日光下受损以及过热问题。不过，它称赞了其实时翻译和电话功能。

The Verge acknowledged the potential of the concept but deemed the actual device "thoroughly unfinished and... broken in so many unacceptable ways."

The Verge 承认这一概念的潜力，但认为实际设备“完全未完成，并且......以许多不可接受的方式损坏”。

Another AI wearable, The Rabbit r1, aims to replace multiple phone apps with an AI assistant. However, reviewers have questioned its advantages over smartphones.

另一款人工智能可穿戴设备 The Rabbit r1 旨在用人工智能助手取代多个手机应用程序。然而，评论家质疑它相对于智能手机的优势。

"The voice control interface that does away with apps completely is a good starting point, but again, that's something my Pixel 8 could feasibly do in the future," concluded TechRadar's preview of the device.

TechRadar对该设备的预览总结道：“完全摆脱应用程序的语音控制界面是一个很好的起点，但同样，这也是我的 Pixel 8 未来可以实现的功能。”

AI Perpetuates Holocaust Survivors' Legacy

人工智能延续大屠杀幸存者的遗产

The Sydney Jewish Museum has unveiled an AI-powered interactive exhibition that enables visitors to engage with Holocaust survivors and receive real-time responses.

悉尼犹太博物馆推出了一个人工智能驱动的互动展览，使游客能够与大屠杀幸存者互动并获得实时回应。

Before his passing in 2021, death camp survivor Eddie Jaku spent days answering over 1,000 questions about his experiences before a 23-camera rig. The system transforms visitor inquiries into search terms, matching them with appropriate answers from Jaku's recorded footage, creating a conversational experience.

死亡集中营幸存者埃迪·贾库 (Eddie Jaku) 在 2021 年去世之前，花了几天时间在 23 台摄像机前回答了 1000 多个有关他经历的问题。该系统将访客的询问转化为搜索词，将其与 Jaku 录制的镜头中的适当答案进行匹配，从而创造一种对话体验。

Amidst rising antisemitism, this AI application serves as a powerful tool to preserve the first-hand accounts of Holocaust survivors for future generations.

在反犹太主义日益高涨的背景下，这款人工智能应用程序成为了一个强大的工具，可以为子孙后代保存大屠杀幸存者的第一手资料。

AI-Generated Content: A Potential Pandora's Box

人工智能生成的内容：潜在的潘多拉魔盒

Approximately 10% of Google search results now lead to AI-generated spam content. Spammers have long exploited SEO to promote websites filled with low-quality articles, but generative AI has exacerbated the problem.

现在，大约 10% 的 Google 搜索结果会导致人工智能生成的垃圾内容。垃圾邮件发送者长期以来一直利用搜索引擎优化来推广充满低质量文章的网站，但生成式人工智能加剧了这个问题。

Besides rendering Google search unreliable, there are concerns that if AI-generated content becomes the dominant form of online material, we may face "model collapse," where AIs trained on subpar AI content produce even lower-quality results.

除了使谷歌搜索变得不可靠之外，人们还担心，如果人工智能生成的内容成为在线材料的主要形式，我们可能会面临“模型崩溃”，即接受低于标准人工智能内容训练的人工智能会产生质量更低的结果。

A related phenomenon, known as "knowledge collapse," has been identified in humans, according to a recent Cornell research paper. The author, Andrew J. Peterson, argues that AIs gravitate toward "mid-curve" ideas, neglecting less common or eccentric perspectives:

根据康奈尔大学最近的一篇研究论文，在人类中发现了一种被称为“知识崩溃”的相关现象。作者安德鲁·J·彼得森 (Andrew J. Peterson) 认为，人工智能倾向于“中间曲线”想法，而忽略了不太常见或古怪的观点：

"While large language models are trained on vast amounts of diverse data, they naturally generate output towards the 'center of the distribution."

“虽然大型语言模型是根据大量不同的数据进行训练的，但它们自然会生成朝向‘分布中心’的输出。”

Peterson suggests that the diversity of human thought could diminish over time as AIs homogenize ideas. The paper advocates for subsidies to protect the diversity of knowledge, similar to those supporting less popular academic and artistic endeavors.

彼得森认为，随着人工智能使思想同质化，人类思想的多样性可能会随着时间的推移而减少。该论文主张提供补贴以保护知识的多样性，类似于支持不太受欢迎的学术和艺术活动的补贴。

Users Should Demand Paid AI Services

用户应该要求付费人工智能服务

Google has been promoting its Gemini 1.5 model to businesses, emphasizing its safety features and ideological neutrality, which were lacking in the consumer version.

谷歌一直在向企业推广其Gemini 1.5型号，强调其安全功能和意识形态中立性，而这些是消费者版本所缺乏的。

While the consumer version was shut down due to concerns over images of diverse Nazis, the enterprise version reportedly remained unaffected.

虽然消费者版本因担心不同纳粹分子的形象而被关闭，但据报道企业版本并未受到影响。

This raises concerns that an ad-driven "free" model for AI, akin to the disastrous model for the web, could lead to users becoming the product, bombarded with advertisements as services deteriorate.

这引发了人们的担忧，即广告驱动的人工智能“免费”模式类似于灾难性的网络模式，可能会导致用户成为产品，随着服务恶化而受到广告轰炸。

Non-Coders and AI Collaboration: A Complex Journey

非编码人员与人工智能协作：复杂的旅程

Author and futurist Daniel Jeffries attempted to create a complex app with AI assistance, despite his limited coding skills. He encountered challenges and frustration but ultimately succeeded.

作家兼未来学家丹尼尔·杰弗里斯（Daniel Jeffries）尽管编码能力有限，但仍试图在人工智能的帮助下创建一款复杂的应用程序。他遇到了挑战和挫折，但最终成功了。

However, Jeffries concluded that AI will not displace coders. Instead, skilled coders with the ability to clearly articulate their requirements will be in even higher demand.

然而，杰弗里斯得出的结论是，人工智能不会取代程序员。相反，对能够清楚表达自己需求的熟练编码员的需求将会更高。

AI News Roundup

人工智能新闻综述

• Token holders have approved the merger of Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean Protocol, forming the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance.
• Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis remains tight-lipped about the rumored $100 billion supercomputer project codenamed "Stargate," but has confirmed significant investments in AI.
• Baidu's Chinese ChatGPT counterpart, Ernie, has doubled its user base to 200 million since October.
• Researchers found that AI image generators could create election disinformation four out of 10 times, highlighting the need for stronger safety measures or improved watermarking systems.
• Instagram is recruiting influencers for a program where their AI-generated avatars can interact with fans.
• Guardian columnist Alex Hern theorizes that ChatGPT's frequent use of the word "delve" may be a side effect of the input provided by low-cost human workers in Nigeria, where the term is common.
• OpenAI has released an enhanced version of GPT-4 Turbo through ChatGPT Plus, offering improved problem-solving capabilities, better conversation flow, and reduced verbosity. It also includes a 50% discount for off-peak batch processing tasks.

代币持有者已批准 Fetch.ai、SingularityNET 和 Ocean Protocol 合并，组建人工超级智能联盟。谷歌 DeepMind 首席执行官 Demis Hassabis 对传闻中代号为“Stargate”的 1000 亿美元超级计算机项目守口如瓶，但已确认对AI. 百度的中文 ChatGPT 同行 Ernie 自 10 月以来其用户基数已翻一番，达到 2 亿。研究人员发现，人工智能图像生成器十次中有四次可以创建选举虚假信息，这凸显了加强安全措施或改进水印系统的必要性。Instagram 正在为一个项目招募有影响力的人，让他们的人工智能生成的化身可以与粉丝互动。《卫报》专栏作家亚历克斯·赫恩 (Alex Hern) 推测，ChatGPT 频繁使用“深入”一词可能是尼日利亚低成本人力提供输入的副作用，其中OpenAI 通过 ChatGPT Plus 发布了 GPT-4 Turbo 的增强版，提供改进的问题解决能力、更好的对话流程并减少冗长。它还包括非高峰批处理任务 50% 的折扣。