Overton窗口發生了變化 - 這段時間，情況有所不同，但並非以我們預期的方式

比特幣的價格超過了100,000美元；我們有一位支持加密貨幣的總統，但奇怪的是，每個人似乎都很生氣。

The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices has sparked a wave of excitement and trepidation within the crypto community. While some revel in the prospect of astronomical gains, others remain skeptical, questioning the sustainability of such a meteoric rise.

最近的加密貨幣價格上漲引發了加密貨幣社區內部的興奮和恐懼。儘管有些人陶醉於天文收益的前景，但其他人仍然懷疑，質疑這種迅速升高的可持續性。

One school of thought maintains that the government's newfound support for cryptocurrencies, coupled with the participation of influential figures like Donald Trump, marks a pivotal shift in the Overton Window. This, they argue, will pave the way for broader acceptance and integration of digital assets into the mainstream.

一所思維學校堅持認為，政府對加密貨幣的新發現，再加上像唐納德·特朗普這樣的有影響力人物的參與，標誌著Overton窗口中的關鍵轉變。他們認為，這將為將數字資產的更廣泛接受和集成到主流中鋪平道路。

However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced and potentially troubling reality. While Trump may indeed be "posting promotional content" for cryptocurrencies, his actions also include promoting meme coins that ultimately benefit his family and siphoning capital away from the broader market.

但是，仔細檢查揭示了一個更細微的和可能令人不安的現實。儘管特朗普確實可能是“促銷內容”的加密貨幣，但他的行動還包括促進模因硬幣，這些硬幣最終使他的家人受益，並從更廣闊的市場中汲取了資本。

This behavior, while perhaps amusing on the surface, highlights a deeper issue—the lack of clear legal frameworks and oversight within the cryptocurrency domain. This vacuum has allowed some projects to prioritize short-term gains and price manipulation over genuine innovation and user experience.

這種行為雖然在表面上很有趣，但卻突出了一個更深層次的問題 - 缺乏明確的法律框架和加密貨幣領域內的監督。這種真空使一些項目可以優先考慮短期收益和價格操縱，而不是真正的創新和用戶體驗。

To some extent, this situation has worked in favor of internet enthusiasts like myself. In a bid to boost coin prices and mitigate legal risks, several project teams have engaged in distributing substantial "free funds" to individuals through airdrops.

在某種程度上，這種情況有利於像我這樣的互聯網愛好者。為了提高硬幣價格並減輕法律風險，幾個項目團隊通過AIRDROPS參與向個人分發大量的“免費資金”。

According to CoinGecko, the total value of the top 50 airdrops has reached an astonishing $26 billion. Given the difficulty in creating truly valuable products within the current environment, we have instead valued these projects based on their aspirations and potential.

根據Coingecko的說法，前50名Airdrops的總價值達到了驚人的260億美元。考慮到在當前環境中創建真正有價值的產品的困難，我們改為根據其願望和潛力來重視這些項目。

As a result, we have witnessed a string of curious phenomena. A Layer 1 with minimal users is valued higher than established traditional tech companies; "Ponzi stablecoins" that rely on new capital injections to maintain their value now surpass the GDP of some nations; and the trading price of ape images eclipses that of real estate properties.

結果，我們目睹了一系列奇怪的現象。具有最小用戶的第1層的價值高於既定的傳統科技公司；依靠新資本注射以維持其價值的“龐氏桿菌”現在超過了某些國家的GDP。猿類圖像的交易價格黯然失色。

In essence, the entire cryptocurrency industry is built upon a flawed incentive mechanism. Talking about building something can be just as lucrative as actually doing it. Many of us both criticize this phenomenon and reap its benefits firsthand.

從本質上講，整個加密貨幣行業都是建立在有缺陷的激勵機制之上的。談論建造某些東西可能與實際這樣做一樣有利可圖。我們許多人都批評這種現象，並獲得了第一手的利益。

But I believe this situation is poised to change. With the government shifting towards support and regulation of cryptocurrencies, we may finally have the opportunity to create serious, practical products for those who genuinely need them.

但是我相信這種情況有望改變。隨著政府向加密貨幣的支持和監管，我們最終可能有機會為那些真正需要它們的人創建認真的實用產品。

This marks a positive development for the industry as a whole, but its implications for us "speculators" remain unclear.

這標誌著整個行業的積極發展，但它對我們的“投機者”的影響尚不清楚。

In a world governed by clear legal frameworks that foster true innovation, will innovators continue to dole out "free funds" via airdrops? As the legal landscape becomes more transparent, will an influx of professionals enter the on-chain ecosystem, potentially diluting the current "speculative spirit"?

在一個由促進真正創新的明確法律框架支配的世界中，創新者會繼續通過AirDrops淘汰“免費資金”？隨著法律格局變得更加透明，專業人士湧入會進入鏈生態系統，可能稀釋當前的“投機精神”？

And what fate awaits those applications that still lack users, despite the crypto projects achieving technological breakthroughs and attracting "real users"? Will we blindly flock to more centralized blockchains as the government pivots from hostility to support?

儘管加密項目實現了技術突破並吸引“真正的用戶”，但命運等待著仍然缺乏用戶的應用程序？我們會盲目地湧向更集中的區塊鏈，因為政府從敵對向支持的樞紐樞紐？

If the barrier to creating tokens drops to zero, will all tokens be diluted and rendered worthless? As higher-quality applications continue to emerge, will we witness a surge in actual users entering the on-chain economy and spending money? Will this money remain on-chain or be siphoned back into the traditional economy?

如果創建代幣的障礙會降至零，那麼所有令牌是否會被稀釋並毫無價值嗎？隨著較高質量的應用程序繼續出現，我們會目睹進入鏈經濟和花錢的實際用戶的激增嗎？這筆錢會保留在鏈上還是被偷偷回到傳統經濟中？

Ultimately, are we headed towards a scenario akin to Web 2.0, where a handful of companies reap the majority of the profits while other projects pale in comparison?

最終，我們是否朝著類似於Web 2.0的方案，其中少數公司獲得了大部分利潤，而其他項目則相比之下？

Does your family's future truly hinge on whether you purchased those seven coins? If you miss out on them, will you be condemned to poverty for holding onto Ethereum for too long?

您家人的未來是否真正取決於您是否購買了這七枚硬幣？如果您錯過了他們，您是否會因太久地抓住以太坊而被譴責貧窮嗎？

Will Michael Saylor impulsively decide to sell (FSH) all his Bitcoin? It sounds preposterous, but if it were to happen, we might still end up with nothing.

邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）會衝動決定出售（FSH）他所有的比特幣嗎？這聽起來很荒謬，但是如果發生這種情況，我們可能仍然一無所獲。

What if the Ethereum Foundation abruptly disbands, leaving us to witness Vitalik's erratic creation of a new blockchain driven by his "Milady spirit"?

如果以太坊基金會突然解散，讓我們見證了維塔利克（Vitalik）不穩定的創造一個由他的“米拉迪精神”（Milady Spirit）驅動的新區塊鏈呢？

And what if Trump decides to launch an "American chain," airdropping tokens to every citizen while heavily taxing other chains and tokens?

如果特朗普決定推出一條“美國連鎖店”，在對其他連鎖店和代幣徵稅的同時向每個公民開槍的代幣怎麼辦？

Would these actions propel coin prices to new heights or lead to a market crash?

這些行動會推動硬幣價格推高新高度還是導致市場崩潰？

To be honest, I have no answers. This may be the most confusing juncture I've encountered in the past five years.

老實說，我沒有答案。這可能是我過去五年來最令人困惑的關頭。

The only certainty is that everything will change, and the cryptocurrency landscape four years from now will be vastly different from today.

唯一的確定性是一切都會改變，而從現在開始四年後的加密貨幣景觀將與今天大不相同。

So, how do I打算应对这些变化?

So, how do I打算應對這些變化?

坦白地说，我不聪明；过去几年我足够幸运赚了一些钱。因此，我决定降低投资风险，从加密货币市场中提取一些资金。

坦白地說，我不聰明；過去幾年我足夠幸運賺了一些錢。因此，我決定降低投資風險，從加密貨幣市場中提取一些資金。

我再也无法忍受将 95% 的净资产押注在每隔几年就会暴跌 95% 的“虚拟货币”上。

我再也無法忍受將95% 的淨資產押注在每隔幾年就會暴跌95% 的“虛擬貨幣”上。

我实在无法鼓起勇气告诉女友，我把我们的未来都押在了特朗普身上。在此之前，我已经将全部身家都押在了他赢得选举上。

我實在無法鼓起勇氣告訴女友，我把我們的未來都押在了特朗普身上。在此之前，我已經將全部身家都押在了他贏得選舉上。

不过，我觉得我未来表现可能会更好。毕竟，现在我知道了，即使自己搞砸了，

不過，我覺得我未來表現可能會更好。畢竟，現在我知道了，即使自己搞砸了，