「川普成為首任比特幣總統」敘事落幕，市場情緒從DEX轉向CEX

堪稱 2024 年 Web3 最令人興奮的敘述「川普成為首位比特幣總統」於 11 月晚結束

As the dust settles on the exciting narrative of 2024 Web3 - "Trump Becomes the First Bitcoin President" - Bitcoin has finally broken out of the wide fluctuation range that has persisted for half a year. Surpassing the previous high point near $73,700, BTC reached a peak of $76,000.

隨著2024年Web3激動人心的敘事——「川普成為首位比特幣總統」塵埃落定——比特幣終於突破了持續半年的寬幅波動區間。 BTC突破前高點73,700美元，達到76,000美元的高峰。

In the traditional market perception, the Trump meme coin, which is most closely associated with Trump, would surge with the news of his election. Interestingly, on November 6th, the day after Trump’s election and during the Web3 celebration, the Trump series meme coins did not show outstanding performance; instead, they experienced a "halving" situation when they should have been on the mainstream exchanges' decline lists if they did not rise.

在傳統的市場認知中，與川普關係最密切的川普迷因幣將會隨著他當選的消息而飆升。有趣的是，11月6日，川普當選後的隔天，Web3慶祝活動期間，川普系列米姆幣並沒有表現出出色的表現；相反，如果不上漲的話，本應進入主流交易所跌幅名單的他們卻遭遇了「減半」的情況。

For example, the address 0x2f6…1Be78 invested nearly $250,000 to buy 70,000 TRUMP coins at an average price of $3.55 during the FOMO sentiment when the votes for the "understanding king" were significantly in favor. Currently, it has an unrealized loss of $88,000 (about 35.5%).

例如，地址0x2f6…1Be78在FOMO情緒期間投資近25萬美元，以均價3.55美元購買了7萬枚川普幣，當時「理解王」的選票明顯贊成。目前，其未實現虧損為 88,000 美元（約 35.5%）。

Why the decline?

為什麼會下降？

From the performance of the Trump series meme coins since their issuance, taking Trump as an example, the price was already at a relatively low level on the eve of his campaign. Interestingly, when we observe the accounts that Trump has publicly disclosed, since May, Trump's crypto address has accumulated over three million dollars, and the main losses came from the meme coin named after Trump. The quantity has not decreased, but as the price has shrunk, the assets in Trump's address have also significantly diminished.

從川普系列表情幣發行以來的表現來看，以川普為例，在他競選前夕，價格已經處於相對較低的水平。有趣的是，我們觀察川普公開揭露的帳戶，自5月以來，川普的加密貨幣地址已累計超過300萬美元，而主要損失來自於以川普命名的米姆幣。數量沒有減少，但隨著價格的縮水，川普演講中的資產也大幅減少。

After Trump's successful campaign, there was certainly an expectation of "good news being fully priced in." However, taking the token named after Trump as an example, it did not show a significant increase before experiencing a "halving," which is clearly illogical.

川普競選成功後，人們肯定有一種「好消息被充分消化」的預期。然而，以川普命名的代幣為例，在經歷「減半」之前並沒有出現明顯的上漲，這顯然不符合邏輯。

Do political series memes have no future?

政治系列迷因沒有未來嗎？

Looking back at some recently emerged political memes, such as Pnut and D.O.G.E, they did not experience a significant decline like Trump and MAGA; instead, they saw an increase.

回顧一些最近出現的政治迷因，例如 Pnut 和 DOGE，它們並沒有像 Trump 和 MAGA 那樣經歷顯著的衰落；相反，他們看到了增加。

Pnut and memes like Trump and MAGA are not entirely the same. Trump and MAGA are more like "straightforward" political meme narratives. Delving into their backstories, we can only reflect support for Trump, while Pnut's story can be explored more deeply.

Pnut 和像 Trump 和 MAGA 這樣的迷因並不完全相同。川普和 MAGA 更像是「直接」的政治迷因敘事。探討他們的背景故事，我們只能體現對川普的支持，而普努特的故事可以更深入地探討。

Pnut is named after a pet squirrel that mechanical engineer Mark Longo took home after witnessing its mother die in a car accident over seven years ago. On October 30th, officials from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation arrested Peanut without a search warrant and euthanized it.

Pnut 得名於一隻寵物松鼠，機械工程師 Mark Longo 在七年前目睹母親在一場車禍中喪生後將其帶回家。 10月30日，紐約州環境保護部官員在沒有搜查令的情況下逮捕了Peanut，並將其安樂死。

Peanut was considered an "illegally kept wild animal," which the public did not accept. The satirical news site Babylon Bee stated, "Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats have begun to revolt." Elon Musk has also repeatedly voiced support for Peanut on social media. This incident regarding Peanut has been portrayed as an unusual attack on the Democratic Party and even a political weapon in the public discourse.

花生被認為是“非法飼養的野生動物”，公眾對此並不接受。諷刺新聞網站Babylon Bee表示，“戴著MAGA帽子的激進松鼠已經開始反抗。”伊隆馬斯克也多次在社群媒體上表達了對 Peanut 的支持。這起關於Peanut的事件被描述為對民主黨的不同尋常的攻擊，甚至被描述為公共話語中的政治武器。

From this perspective, we can see that political series memes have not come to an end; rather, the narrative of simply supporting Trump is not "exciting" enough.

從這個角度來看，政治系列迷因還沒結束；相反，單純支持川普的敘事還不夠「令人興奮」。

Interestingly, the "betting prediction platform" PolyMarket and the Trump series memes have, to some extent, become premium. Investing in the Trump series memes is not as good as betting on Trump's victory on PolyMarket, as the underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket has seen a significant increase in trading volume and the number of predicted events in 2024, which may also explain the prolonged low prices of Trump series meme coins.

有趣的是，「投注預測平台」PolyMarket和川普系列表情包在某種程度上已經變得溢價。投資川普系列表情包不如在 PolyMarket 押注川普獲勝，因為底層邏輯是一樣的。 PolyMarket 的交易量和 2024 年預測事件數量顯著增加，這也可能解釋了川普系列迷因幣價格長期處於低位的原因。

Meme or DeFi? The crypto fork after Trump's presidency

Meme 還是 DeFi？川普就任總統後的加密貨幣分叉

In the eyes of many degens in the market, the great narrative of Trump becoming the first "Bitcoin president" in U.S. history will certainly lead to many "golden dogs" emerging. On that day, degens were keen to find various "angles" on Twitter.

在市場不少人士看來，川普成為美國史上第一位「比特幣總統」的偉大敘事，必將催生眾多「金狗」。那天，德根斯熱衷於在推特上尋找各種「角度」。

For example, JD Vance's dog Atlas participated in voting, and the newly appointed Sec Chair, referred to as the "crypto mother," Hester, ultimately could not escape the "PVP" logic, quickly falling back to zero after reaching a market cap of several million dollars. Many "diamond-handed degens" faced PVP failures that day.

例如，JD Vance 的愛犬 Atlas 參與投票，新上任的 Sec 主席、被稱為「加密之母」的 Hester 最終也未能逃脫「PVP」邏輯，市值達到 100 美元後迅速回落至零。美元。許多「鑽石手德根」那天都遭遇了PVP失敗。

Shifting focus from DEX to CEX, the market sentiment was completely different. The sentiment in CEX was very enthusiastic, and the "zero-value altcoins" that had been criticized by the market for half a year showed significant increases. On the day Trump took office, the "on-chain wild farm" seemed to disappear, with many believing, "With regulations easing, making money on the table no longer requires doing on-chain wild farming."

從DEX轉移到CEX，市場情緒完全不同。 CEX內情緒十分熱烈，被市場詬病半年的「零價值山寨幣」大幅上漲。川普上任那天，「鏈上野生農場」似乎消失了，許多人認為，「隨著監管放鬆，桌上賺錢不再需要做鏈上野生農場」。

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