“特朗普成为首任比特币总统”叙事落下帷幕，市场情绪从DEX转向CEX

堪称 2024 年 Web3 最激动人心的叙述“特朗普成为首位比特币总统”于 11 月晚结束

As the dust settles on the exciting narrative of 2024 Web3 - "Trump Becomes the First Bitcoin President" - Bitcoin has finally broken out of the wide fluctuation range that has persisted for half a year. Surpassing the previous high point near $73,700, BTC reached a peak of $76,000.

随着2024年Web3激动人心的叙事——“特朗普成为首位比特币总统”尘埃落定——比特币终于突破了持续半年的宽幅波动区间。 BTC突破前高点73,700美元，达到76,000美元的峰值。

In the traditional market perception, the Trump meme coin, which is most closely associated with Trump, would surge with the news of his election. Interestingly, on November 6th, the day after Trump’s election and during the Web3 celebration, the Trump series meme coins did not show outstanding performance; instead, they experienced a "halving" situation when they should have been on the mainstream exchanges' decline lists if they did not rise.

在传统的市场认知中，与特朗普关系最密切的特朗普模因币将会随着他当选的消息而飙升。有趣的是，11月6日，特朗普当选后的第二天，Web3庆祝活动期间，特朗普系列米姆币并没有表现出出色的表现；相反，如果不上涨的话，本应进入主流交易所跌幅名单的他们却遭遇了“减半”的情况。

For example, the address 0x2f6…1Be78 invested nearly $250,000 to buy 70,000 TRUMP coins at an average price of $3.55 during the FOMO sentiment when the votes for the "understanding king" were significantly in favor. Currently, it has an unrealized loss of $88,000 (about 35.5%).

例如，地址0x2f6…1Be78在FOMO情绪期间投资近25万美元，以均价3.55美元购买了7万枚特朗普币，当时“理解王”的选票明显赞成。目前，其未实现亏损为 88,000 美元（约 35.5%）。

Why the decline?

为什么会下降？

From the performance of the Trump series meme coins since their issuance, taking Trump as an example, the price was already at a relatively low level on the eve of his campaign. Interestingly, when we observe the accounts that Trump has publicly disclosed, since May, Trump's crypto address has accumulated over three million dollars, and the main losses came from the meme coin named after Trump. The quantity has not decreased, but as the price has shrunk, the assets in Trump's address have also significantly diminished.

从特朗普系列表情币发行以来的表现来看，以特朗普为例，在他竞选前夕，价格已经处于相对较低的水平。有趣的是，我们观察特朗普公开披露的账户，自5月份以来，特朗普的加密货币地址已累计超过300万美元，而主要损失来自于以特朗普命名的米姆币。数量没有减少，但随着价格的缩水，特朗普演讲中的资产也大幅减少。

After Trump's successful campaign, there was certainly an expectation of "good news being fully priced in." However, taking the token named after Trump as an example, it did not show a significant increase before experiencing a "halving," which is clearly illogical.

特朗普竞选成功后，人们肯定有一种“好消息被充分消化”的预期。然而，以特朗普命名的代币为例，在经历“减半”之前并没有出现明显的上涨，这显然不符合逻辑。

Do political series memes have no future?

政治系列模因没有未来吗？

Looking back at some recently emerged political memes, such as Pnut and D.O.G.E, they did not experience a significant decline like Trump and MAGA; instead, they saw an increase.

回顾一些最近出现的政治模因，例如 Pnut 和 DOGE，它们并没有像 Trump 和 MAGA 那样经历显着的衰落；相反，他们看到了增加。

Pnut and memes like Trump and MAGA are not entirely the same. Trump and MAGA are more like "straightforward" political meme narratives. Delving into their backstories, we can only reflect support for Trump, while Pnut's story can be explored more deeply.

Pnut 和像 Trump 和 MAGA 这样的模因并不完全相同。特朗普和 MAGA 更像是“直接”的政治模因叙事。探究他们的背景故事，我们只能体现对特朗普的支持，而普努特的故事可以更深入地探讨。

Pnut is named after a pet squirrel that mechanical engineer Mark Longo took home after witnessing its mother die in a car accident over seven years ago. On October 30th, officials from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation arrested Peanut without a search warrant and euthanized it.

Pnut 得名于一只宠物松鼠，机械工程师 Mark Longo 在七年前目睹其母亲在一场车祸中丧生后将其带回家。 10月30日，纽约州环境保护部官员在没有搜查令的情况下逮捕了Peanut，并将其安乐死。

Peanut was considered an "illegally kept wild animal," which the public did not accept. The satirical news site Babylon Bee stated, "Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats have begun to revolt." Elon Musk has also repeatedly voiced support for Peanut on social media. This incident regarding Peanut has been portrayed as an unusual attack on the Democratic Party and even a political weapon in the public discourse.

花生被认为是“非法饲养的野生动物”，公众对此并不接受。讽刺新闻网站Babylon Bee表示，“戴着MAGA帽子的激进松鼠已经开始反抗。”埃隆·马斯克也多次在社交媒体上表达了对 Peanut 的支持。这起关于Peanut的事件被描述为对民主党的不同寻常的攻击，甚至被描述为公共话语中的政治武器。

From this perspective, we can see that political series memes have not come to an end; rather, the narrative of simply supporting Trump is not "exciting" enough.

从这个角度来看，政治系列模因还没有结束；相反，单纯支持特朗普的叙述还不够“令人兴奋”。

Interestingly, the "betting prediction platform" PolyMarket and the Trump series memes have, to some extent, become premium. Investing in the Trump series memes is not as good as betting on Trump's victory on PolyMarket, as the underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket has seen a significant increase in trading volume and the number of predicted events in 2024, which may also explain the prolonged low prices of Trump series meme coins.

有趣的是，“投注预测平台”PolyMarket和特朗普系列表情包在某种程度上已经变得溢价。投资特朗普系列表情包不如在 PolyMarket 押注特朗普获胜，因为底层逻辑是一样的。 PolyMarket 的交易量和 2024 年预测事件数量显着增加，这也可能解释了特朗普系列模因币价格长期处于低位的原因。

Meme or DeFi? The crypto fork after Trump's presidency

Meme 还是 DeFi？特朗普就任总统后的加密货币分叉

In the eyes of many degens in the market, the great narrative of Trump becoming the first "Bitcoin president" in U.S. history will certainly lead to many "golden dogs" emerging. On that day, degens were keen to find various "angles" on Twitter.

在市场不少人士看来，特朗普成为美国历史上第一位“比特币总统”的伟大叙事，必将催生众多“金狗”。那天，德根斯热衷于在推特上寻找各种“角度”。

For example, JD Vance's dog Atlas participated in voting, and the newly appointed Sec Chair, referred to as the "crypto mother," Hester, ultimately could not escape the "PVP" logic, quickly falling back to zero after reaching a market cap of several million dollars. Many "diamond-handed degens" faced PVP failures that day.

例如，JD Vance 的爱犬 Atlas 参与投票，新上任的 Sec 主席、被称为“加密之母”的 Hester 最终也未能逃脱“PVP”逻辑，市值达到 100 美元后迅速回落至零。数百万美元。许多“钻石手德根”那天都遭遇了PVP失败。

Shifting focus from DEX to CEX, the market sentiment was completely different. The sentiment in CEX was very enthusiastic, and the "zero-value altcoins" that had been criticized by the market for half a year showed significant increases. On the day Trump took office, the "on-chain wild farm" seemed to disappear, with many believing, "With regulations easing, making money on the table no longer requires doing on-chain wild farming."

从DEX转移到CEX，市场情绪完全不同。 CEX内情绪十分热烈，被市场诟病半年的“零价值山寨币”出现大幅上涨。特朗普上任那天，“链上野生农场”似乎消失了，许多人认为，“随着监管放松，桌上赚钱不再需要做链上野生农场”。

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