美國千禧年淘金熱：海市蜃樓還是現實？

在經濟擔憂日益加劇的情況下，美國人，尤其是千禧世代，越來越多地投資黃金。最近，年輕購物者在 Costco 購買金條引發了對這一趨勢的討論，道富銀行的一項研究表明，千禧世代將 17% 的投資分配給了黃金。然而，該研究的方法是基於對黃金公司附屬公司的線上調查，引發了人們對該數字準確性的質疑。

The Millennial Gold Rush: Is it Real or a Statistical Mirage?

千禧年淘金熱：是真實的還是統計上的幻象？

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal painted a vivid picture of millennials flocking to Costco to purchase gold bars amid fears of economic uncertainty. The anecdotes of Craig Beauregard and Julia Edwards, who stumbled upon a bargain-priced ounce of gold, seem to support the notion of a growing trend among the younger generation toward investing in the precious metal. However, upon closer examination, the evidence presented falls short of establishing a definitive trend.

《華爾街日報》最近的一篇文章生動地描繪了千禧世代因擔心經濟不確定性而湧向 Costco 購買金條的景象。克雷格·博勒加德 (Craig Beauregard) 和朱莉婭·愛德華茲 (Julia Edwards) 偶然發現了一盎司低價黃金，他們的軼事似乎支持了年輕一代投資貴金屬的趨勢日益增長的觀點。然而，經過仔細檢查，所提供的證據未能確定明確的趨勢。

The Journal's attempt to corroborate the isolated examples of Beauregard and Edwards with additional anecdotes and a questionable study raises concerns about the validity of the conclusions drawn. The study cited, conducted by State Street, claims that the "average millennial allocates 17% of their investments to gold," a figure derived from an online poll of 1,000 individuals with $250,000 in investments, of whom only 25% were millennials. This methodology raises red flags, as it relies on a small sample size and a self-selected group who may not be representative of the millennial population at large.

《華爾街日報》試圖用額外的軼事和一項有問題的研究來證實博勒加德和愛德華茲的孤立例子，這引起了人們對所得出結論的有效性的擔憂。道富銀行進行的這項研究稱，“千禧世代平均將17% 的投資分配給黃金”，這一數字來自對1,000 名擁有25 萬美元投資的個人進行的線上調查，其中只有25% 是千禧世代。這種方法提出了危險信號，因為它依賴小樣本量和自我選擇的群體，而這些群體可能無法代表整個千禧世代人口。

Furthermore, the Journal's narrative overlooks the inherent limitations of gold as an investment. While gold has historically served as a store of value, its drawbacks as an asset class cannot be ignored. It is difficult to spend, especially in smaller transactions, and its liquidity is limited compared to other investments. Additionally, gold is subject to sales tax in many jurisdictions, further eroding its value.

此外，該雜誌的敘述忽略了黃金作為投資的固有限制。雖然黃金歷史上一直作為一種價值儲存手段，但其作為資產類別的缺點也不容忽視。它很難花費，尤其是在較小的交易中，而且與其他投資相比，其流動性有限。此外，黃金在許多司法管轄區都要繳納銷售稅，這進一步削弱了其價值。

In contrast, Bitcoin, often touted as a digital alternative to gold, offers several advantages. Its divisibility makes it suitable for a wider range of transactions, and its liquidity is vastly superior, allowing for easier buying and selling. While Bitcoin's value has been more volatile than gold in the past, recent trends show a promising recovery, with no investor who has held Bitcoin for three years suffering a loss.

相比之下，經常被譽為黃金的數位替代品的比特幣具有多種優勢。它的可分割性使其適合更廣泛的交易，並且其流動性極其優越，使得買賣更加容易。雖然比特幣的價值過去比黃金波動更大，但最近的趨勢顯示出有希望的復甦，持有比特幣三年的投資者並沒有遭受損失。

The question of whether to invest in gold or Bitcoin remains a matter of personal preference and circumstances. However, it is crucial to base investment decisions on sound evidence and a thorough understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each asset class. The anecdotal evidence presented in the Wall Street Journal article does not provide sufficient support for the claim that millennials are embracing gold as a significant investment, and further research is necessary to determine the true extent of this alleged trend.

投資黃金還是比特幣的問題仍然是個人喜好和情況的問題。然而，基於可靠的證據和對每種資產類別的優勢和劣勢的透徹了解來做出投資決策至關重要。 《華爾街日報》文章中提供的軼事證據並沒有為千禧世代將黃金視為一項重要投資的說法提供足夠的支持，需要進一步研究來確定這種所謂趨勢的真實程度。

In the meantime, investors should exercise caution when considering gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and weigh its drawbacks against the potential advantages of other investments, such as Bitcoin, before making any commitments.

同時，投資者在考慮將黃金作為對沖經濟不確定性的工具時應謹慎行事，並在做出任何承諾之前權衡其缺點與比特幣等其他投資的潛在優勢。