BitMEX Research 表示，MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的 NAV 較比特幣 (BTC) 溢價 256% 是“瘋狂的”

該分析強調了 MicroStrategy 在其積極的比特幣收購策略的推動下當前的市值與其所持有的比特幣的實際價值之間存在巨大的估值差距。

MicroStrategy MSTR stock price surged on Monday morning after rising sharply last week, fueled by its unique strategy of deploying excess cash into Bitcoin BTC/USD.

MicroStrategy MSTR 股價繼上周大幅上漲後，在其將多餘現金配置為比特幣/美元的獨特策略的推動下，週一上午飆升。

While the company's stock performance has grabbed headlines, a deeper analysis reveals a striking disparity between MicroStrategy's market valuation and the net asset value (NAV) of its Bitcoin holdings.

儘管該公司的股票表現已成為頭條新聞，但更深入的分析顯示，MicroStrategy 的市場估值與其持有的比特幣資產淨值 (NAV) 之間存在顯著差異。

According to BitMEX Research, MSTR stock is currently trading at an astonishing 256% premium to the NAV of its Bitcoin holdings, highlighting the extreme optimism among investors.

根據 BitMEX Research 的數據，MSTR 股票目前的交易價格比其持有的比特幣資產淨值高出驚人的 256%，凸顯了投資者的極度樂觀情緒。

A Closer Look at the Disparity

仔細看看差異

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings, as of Monday, are valued at approximately $32.3 billion, assuming a Bitcoin price of $97,600 and the total bitcoin holdings are 331,200.

截至週一，MicroStrategy 的比特幣持有量價值約為 323 億美元，假設比特幣價格為 97,600 美元，比特幣持有總量為 331,200 枚。

However, the company's fully diluted market capitalization stands at $115 billion, with a share price of $474, indicating a valuation that is significantly higher than its Bitcoin holdings.

然而，該公司完全稀釋後的市值為 1,150 億美元，股價為 474 美元，這表明其估值明顯高於其持有的比特幣。

This disparity is largely driven by investors betting on the company's ability to continue acquiring Bitcoin at a premium, which is then used to calculate the NAV.

這種差異主要是由於投資者押注該公司有能力繼續以溢價購買比特幣，然後用於計算資產淨值。

Breaking Down the Numbers

細分數字

To illustrate the scale of the premium, BitMEX Research explored scenarios where MicroStrategy could align its Bitcoin per share value with its current trading price of $474.

為了說明溢價的規模，BitMEX Research 探索了 MicroStrategy 可以將其比特幣每股價值與其當前 474 美元交易價格調整的情景。

Assuming the Bitcoin price remains constant at $97,600 and the premium persists, the company would need to

假設比特幣價格保持在 97,600 美元不變並且溢價持續存在，該公司需要

This iterative calculation assumes the company continues issuing new equity at a premium to acquire more Bitcoin, a strategy that has been a key part of MicroStrategy's plan since 2020.

這項迭代計算假設該公司繼續以溢價發行新股以收購更多比特幣，這項策略自 2020 年以來一直是 MicroStrategy 計畫的關鍵部分。

"If the premium persists, the company can keep issuing new shares until the value of the Bitcoin per share equals the current share price," BitMEX Research noted.

BitMEX Research 指出：“如果溢價持續存在，公司可以繼續發行新股，直到每股比特幣的價值等於當前股價。”

Premium: A Sign of Enthusiasm or Speculation?

溢價：熱情還是投機的跡象？

The high premium on MSTR stock has sparked differing opinions, with some arguing that it is a consequence of investor enthusiasm for obtaining indirect exposure to Bitcoin, while others view it as a speculative bubble.

MSTR 股票的高溢價引發了不同的看法，有些人認為這是投資者熱衷於間接接觸比特幣的結果，而另一些人則認為這是投機泡沫。

According to BitMEX Research, the premium is likely only sustainable if investors continue to be enticed by MicroStrategy's yield strategy.

BitMEX Research 表示，只有投資人持續受到 MicroStrategy 收益策略的吸引，溢價才可能可持續。

"At that point, with a $1,685 share price, people may need to think the premium will still remain for another round of this," the analysis added.

分析補充說：“到那時，以 1,685 美元的股價，人們可能需要認為溢價在另一輪融資中仍將存在。”

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Proxy Status

MicroStrategy 的比特幣代理程式狀態

The company's holdings position it as a major Bitcoin proxy. However, the 256% premium suggests that investors are paying a substantial markup for exposure, which is far greater than the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings.

該公司的持股使其成為主要的比特幣代理。然而，256% 的溢價表明投資者正在為敞口支付大幅加價，這遠高於其持有的比特幣的實際價值。

This disparity highlights the optimism and speculative nature of the market's enthusiasm for Bitcoin and the lengths to which some investors are going to gain exposure.

這種差異凸顯了市場對比特幣熱情的樂觀和投機本質，以及一些投資者將獲得投資的長度。