Messari 2025加密貨幣展望：宏觀環境將推動比特幣上漲，Meme熱潮將持續

Messari 長達190 頁的報告由三個部分組成：加密貨幣現狀（宏觀環境、機構狀況、用戶在哪裡）+軌跡分析（比特幣、以太坊、Solana、Alt L1s +infra、DeFi、AlxCrypto、DePin、Consumer ） 、CeFi）+分析師選擇獎。

1. Author NingNing's report is from Messari.

1. 作者NingNing的報告來自Messari。

2. Messari's report consists of three parts: the current state of cryptocurrencies (macro-environment, institutional status, where are the users) + track analysis (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Alt L1s +infra, DeFi, AlxCrypto, DePin, Consumer, CeFi) + analyst choice awards.

2.Messari的報告由三個部分組成：加密貨幣現狀（宏觀環境、機構狀況、用戶在哪裡）+軌跡分析（比特幣、以太坊、Solana、Alt L1s+infra、DeFi、AlxCrypto、DePin、Consumer、CeFi ) + 分析師選擇獎。

3. Messari's core analysis frameworks include: block space economics, ecological map valuation framework, narrative economics, Schumpeter's innovation theory, etc.

3.Messari的核心分析架構包括：區塊空間經濟學、生態地圖估價架構、敘事經濟學、熊彼特創新理論等。

4. After reviewing major events in the macro environment in 2024, Messari predicted the changing trends in the US economic environment and crypto regulation in 2025.

4.Messari在回顧了2024年宏觀環境的重大事件後，預測了2025年美國經濟環境和加密貨幣監管的變化趨勢。

5. But in any case, it will be friendlier than Biden's encryption policy.

5.但無論如何，它都會比拜登的加密政策更友善。

6. In 2024, the main battlefield for institutions will be the application and operation of Bitcoin/ETH spot ETFs and the promotion of RWA (mainly U.S. debt tokenization) business.

6.2024年機構的主戰場將是比特幣/ETH現貨ETF的應用和營運以及RWA（主要是美債代幣化）業務的推廣。

7. The launch of the stablecoin PYUSD by Paypal and the acquisition of the stablecoin company Bridge by Stripe have blurred the boundaries between financial technology, payment and cryptocurrency.

7. Paypal推出穩定幣PYUSD以及Stripe收購穩定幣公司Bridge，模糊了金融科技、支付和加密貨幣之間的界線。

8. In terms of investment, the institution adopted a barbell strategy consisting of Al and DePin, and the total financing of these two sectors increased by about 100% and 300% respectively compared with last year.

8.投資方面，該機構採取了由Al和DePin組成的槓鈴策略，這兩個板塊的融資總額較去年分別增長約100%和300%。

9. Incoming AI and crypto czar David Sacks is an investor in Solana, Helium, Render, and Hivemapper. Expect the US government to seriously consider working with the DePin project in 2025.

9. 即將上任的人工智慧和加密貨幣沙皇 David Sacks 是 Solana、Helium、Render 和 Hivemapper 的投資者。預計美國政府將在 2025 年認真考慮與 DePin 計畫合作。

10. Messari cited a report from A16Z, saying that among the 220 million active addresses, approximately 30 million to 60 million are real monthly active users.

10. Messari 引述 A16Z 的一份報告稱，在 2.2 億個活躍地址中，大約有 3000 萬至 6000 萬是真正的月活躍用戶。

11. Users are mainly distributed in Phantom wallet, stablecoin, Telegram app, Polymark prediction market, Base and Hyperliquid.

11. 用戶主要分佈在Phantom錢包、穩定幣、Telegram應用、Polymark預測市場、Base和Hyperliquid。

12. Messari believes that the growth of on-chain users in 25 years will come more from the product strength of Dapps, rather than the Bitcoin ATH news events or the legendary stories of MeMe coins getting rich. Therefore, its very bullish chain abstraction and aggregation front-end adoption in 25 years.

12. Messari 認為，25 年鏈上用戶的成長將更多來自於 Dapp 的產品力，而不是比特幣 ATH 新聞事件或 MeMe 幣致富的傳奇故事。因此，其非常看好25年鏈抽象與聚合前端的採用。