Messari 2025加密货币展望：宏观环境将推动比特币上涨，Meme热潮将持续

Messari 长达 190 页的报告由三部分组成：加密货币现状（宏观环境、机构状况、用户在哪里）+轨迹分析（比特币、以太坊、Solana、Alt L1s +infra、DeFi、AlxCrypto、DePin、Consumer） 、CeFi）+分析师选择奖。

1. Author NingNing's report is from Messari.

1. 作者NingNing的报告来自Messari。

2. Messari's report consists of three parts: the current state of cryptocurrencies (macro-environment, institutional status, where are the users) + track analysis (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Alt L1s +infra, DeFi, AlxCrypto, DePin, Consumer, CeFi) + analyst choice awards.

2、Messari的报告由三部分组成：加密货币现状（宏观环境、机构状况、用户在哪里）+轨迹分析（比特币、以太坊、Solana、Alt L1s+infra、DeFi、AlxCrypto、DePin、Consumer、 CeFi) + 分析师选择奖。

3. Messari's core analysis frameworks include: block space economics, ecological map valuation framework, narrative economics, Schumpeter's innovation theory, etc.

3、Messari的核心分析框架包括：区块空间经济学、生态地图估值框架、叙事经济学、熊彼特创新理论等。

4. After reviewing major events in the macro environment in 2024, Messari predicted the changing trends in the US economic environment and crypto regulation in 2025.

4、Messari在回顾了2024年宏观环境的重大事件后，预测了2025年美国经济环境和加密货币监管的变化趋势。

5. But in any case, it will be friendlier than Biden's encryption policy.

5.但无论如何，它都会比拜登的加密政策更加友好。

6. In 2024, the main battlefield for institutions will be the application and operation of Bitcoin/ETH spot ETFs and the promotion of RWA (mainly U.S. debt tokenization) business.

6、2024年机构的主战场将是比特币/ETH现货ETF的应用和运营以及RWA（主要是美债代币化）业务的推广。

7. The launch of the stablecoin PYUSD by Paypal and the acquisition of the stablecoin company Bridge by Stripe have blurred the boundaries between financial technology, payment and cryptocurrency.

7. Paypal推出稳定币PYUSD以及Stripe收购稳定币公司Bridge，模糊了金融科技、支付和加密货币之间的界限。

8. In terms of investment, the institution adopted a barbell strategy consisting of Al and DePin, and the total financing of these two sectors increased by about 100% and 300% respectively compared with last year.

8、投资方面，该机构采取了由Al和DePin组成的杠铃策略，这两个板块的融资总额较去年分别增长约100%和300%。

9. Incoming AI and crypto czar David Sacks is an investor in Solana, Helium, Render, and Hivemapper. Expect the US government to seriously consider working with the DePin project in 2025.

9. 即将上任的人工智能和加密货币沙皇 David Sacks 是 Solana、Helium、Render 和 Hivemapper 的投资者。预计美国政府将在 2025 年认真考虑与 DePin 项目合作。

10. Messari cited a report from A16Z, saying that among the 220 million active addresses, approximately 30 million to 60 million are real monthly active users.

10. Messari 援引 A16Z 的一份报告称，在 2.2 亿个活跃地址中，大约有 3000 万至 6000 万是真正的月活跃用户。

11. Users are mainly distributed in Phantom wallet, stablecoin, Telegram app, Polymark prediction market, Base and Hyperliquid.

11. 用户主要分布在Phantom钱包、稳定币、Telegram应用、Polymark预测市场、Base和Hyperliquid。

12. Messari believes that the growth of on-chain users in 25 years will come more from the product strength of Dapps, rather than the Bitcoin ATH news events or the legendary stories of MeMe coins getting rich. Therefore, its very bullish chain abstraction and aggregation front-end adoption in 25 years.

12. Messari 认为，25 年链上用户的增长将更多来自于 Dapp 的产品力，而不是比特币 ATH 新闻事件或 MeMe 币致富的传奇故事。因此，其非常看好25年链抽象和聚合前端的采用。