大量選擇權到期引發比特幣、以太坊市場波動

大量與比特幣和以太坊相關的期權合約於 2024 年 4 月 26 日到期，其中包括 987,000 份 ETH 期權和 96,172 份 BTC 標準期權，這是歷史上最大的到期合約之一。這是在地緣政治緊張局勢和比特幣 ETF 資金外流的情況下發生的，可能導致市場波動和價格調整。比特幣選擇權佔未平倉合約的 62%，名義價值為 95 億美元，而以太坊選擇權則佔其餘部分，由於到期，未平倉合約大幅減少。

Massive Expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Contracts Sparks Market Volatility

比特幣和以太坊選擇權合約大規模到期引發市場波動

On April 26, 2024, a colossal number of options contracts linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum reached their expiration date, triggering a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency markets. This unprecedented expiry involved 987,000 ETH options contracts and 96,172 BTC standard options contracts, representing a staggering notional value of approximately $9.5 billion for Bitcoin alone.

2024 年 4 月 26 日，大量與比特幣和以太幣相關的選擇權合約到期，引發了加密貨幣市場的關鍵事件。這次前所未有的到期涉及 987,000 份 ETH 選擇權合約和 96,172 份 BTC 標準選擇權合約，光是比特幣的名義價值就高達約 95 億美元。

Collision with Geopolitical Tensions and ETF Outflows

地緣政治緊張局勢和 ETF 流出的衝突

The options expiry coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions and sizable outflows from Bitcoin Exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These factors created a volatile environment, fueling concerns about potential market swings and price fluctuations. Analysts cautioned traders to brace for the potential impact on the dynamics and pricing of these digital assets.

在選擇權到期之際，地緣政治緊張局勢不斷升級，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）出現大量資金外流。這些因素造成了不穩定的環境，加劇了人們對潛在市場波動和價格波動的擔憂。分析師警告交易者要做好對這些數位資產動態和定價的潛在影響的準備。

Bitcoin Options Data: Staking a Bullish Position

比特幣選擇權數據：看漲頭寸

According to Deribit, the world's leading cryptocurrency options exchange, Bitcoin's put-to-call ratio stood at 0.68, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders. This ratio suggested that traders were predominantly selling more calls (long contracts) than puts (short contracts). The maximum pain point, the price at which the asset would cause financial losses to the largest number of holders, was set at $61,000. However, Bitcoin surged to $64,600 at the expiration moment, suggesting a strong bias towards the upside.

根據全球領先的加密貨幣選擇交易所 Deribit 的數據，比特幣的看跌期權與看漲期權比率為 0.68，顯示交易者的看漲情緒。這一比率表明，交易者主要賣出的看漲期權（多頭合約）多於看跌期權（空頭合約）。最大痛點，即該資產會對最大數量的持有者造成經濟損失的價格，被設定為 61,000 美元。然而，比特幣在到期時飆升至 64,600 美元，顯示強烈的上行趨勢。

Ethereum Options Data: A Bleak Puzzled Picture

以太坊選擇權數據：一幅慘淡而令人困惑的圖景

Ethereum's options landscape painted a contrasting picture. Its put/call ratio rested at 0.51, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment, with $3,100 serving as the maximum pain point. Despite the expiry, Ethereum experienced negligible price volatility, trading within a narrow range between $64,200 and $64,600.

以太坊的選擇權格局描繪了一幅截然不同的圖像。其看跌期權/看漲期權比率維持在 0.51，顯示市場情緒略顯看跌，其中 3,100 美元是最大痛點。儘管到期，以太坊的價格波動微乎其微，交易價格在 64,200 美元至 64,600 美元之間的窄幅區間內。

Investment Strategies in the Face of Options Expiry

期權到期時的投資策略

The expiry of such a large volume of options contracts is a significant event that can significantly shape market dynamics. Bitcoin options accounted for an astounding 62% of the total notional open interest due for settlement, with Ether options comprising the rest. This massive reduction in open interest can potentially create price volatility as market participants adjust their positions.

如此大量的選擇合約到期是一個重大事件，可以顯著影響市場動態。比特幣選擇權佔待結算名義未平倉合約總額的 62%，令人震驚，其餘為以太坊選擇權。隨著市場參與者調整頭寸，未平倉合約的大幅減少可能會造成價格波動。

Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs: A Sign of Caution

比特幣 ETF 資金流出：一個謹慎的訊號

Adding to the complexity of the market outlook are the dynamics of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data from SoSo Value revealed substantial net outflows of $218 million from US Bitcoin spot ETFs as of April 25, 2024. Major funds, such as Grayscale's GBTC, Fidelity's FBTC, and Valkyrie's BRRR, witnessed significant withdrawals.

現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的動態增加了市場前景的複雜性。 SoSo Value 的數據顯示，截至 2024 年 4 月 25 日，美國比特幣現貨 ETF 大幅淨流出 2.18 億美元。

Implications for Investor Sentiment and Market Liquidity

對投資者情緒和市場流動性的影響

The movements of these ETFs are pivotal indicators of investor sentiment and market liquidity. If net outflows persist, it could signal a cautious or bearish attitude among investors, who may be anticipating price corrections following the options expiry. Alternatively, inflows could mitigate the effects of the expiry or even intensify upward price moves.

這些 ETF 的走勢是投資者情緒和市場流動性的關鍵指標。如果淨流出持續存在，則可能表示投資者持謹慎或看跌態度，他們可能會預期選擇權到期後價格會出現調整。或者，資金流入可能會減輕到期的影響，甚至加劇價格上漲。

Market Volatility in the Wake of Options Exiry: Tread with Caution

期權到期後的市場波動：謹慎行事

In the wake of the options expiry and amidst geopolitical uncertainties, observers anticipate increased price volatility in the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets. Traders are advised to proceed with caution and vigilance, closely monitoring market dynamics to make informed trading decisions. The key to success lies in adapting to the evolving conditions and exercising prudent risk management strategies.

在選擇權到期和地緣政治不確定性的背景下，觀察家預計比特幣和以太坊市場的價格波動將加劇。建議交易者謹慎行事，保持警惕，密切關注市場動態，以做出明智的交易決策。成功的關鍵在於適應不斷變化的情況並採取審慎的風險管理策略。