本週市場：隨著以太幣 (ETH) 接近 ETF 推出日期，比特幣 (BTC) 市場突破 60,000 美元

本週市場大幅反彈，比特幣本周初突破 6 萬美元，山寨幣緊隨其後。加密貨幣總市值成長了 5.7%，達到 2.31 兆美元。

The markets have rallied notably this week, with Bitcoin (BTC) rallying above $60,000 early in the week and dragging altcoins higher. The total crypto market cap also rose 5.7% to reach $2.31 trillion.

本週市場顯著反彈，比特幣 (BTC) 本周初升至 60,000 美元以上，並拖累山寨幣走高。加密貨幣總市值也上漲 5.7%，達到 2.31 兆美元。

Ethereum (ETH) gained 5.3% this week amid growing speculation that U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are nearing a launch date, with some analysts predicting July 23.

以太坊 (ETH) 本週上漲 5.3%，人們越來越猜測美國交易所交易基金 (ETF) 即將推出，一些分析師預測將於 7 月 23 日推出。

Bitcoin ETF flows were heavy on the inflows, with six out of the eight most recent sessions landing above the $128 million average in total daily flows.

比特幣 ETF 資金流入量很大，最近 8 個交易日中有 6 個交易日的每日總流量超過 1.28 億美元的平均值。

U.S. Economic Data Improving

美國經濟數據改善

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Washington, fielding a variety of questions from the audience. Here’s one response he gave when asked about the state of inflation.

聯準會主席鮑威爾在華盛頓經濟俱樂部發表講話，回答了聽眾提出的各種問題。以下是他在被問及通膨狀況時所給予的回應。

“We didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence,” Powell said Monday.

鮑威爾週一表示：“我們在第一季沒有獲得任何額外的信心，但第二季的三個讀數，包括上週的讀數，確實在一定程度上增強了信心。”

The Fed has consistently said that rate cuts won’t come until the committee is confident that inflation is headed back toward its 2% target. Is the pendulum finally starting to swing?

聯準會一直表示，只有在委員會確信通膨率回到 2% 的目標之前，才會降息。鐘擺終於開始擺動了嗎？

Hot Take

熱賣

This kind of language has not come from key policymakers until now. Since we are starting to see weakness and decline in the jobs sector, we could see the first rate cut as soon-as September.

迄今為止，關鍵決策者還沒有發出這樣的言論。由於我們開始看到就業部門的疲軟和下滑，我們最早可能會在 9 月看到首次降息。

Bitcoin – BTC

比特幣——BTC

Bitcoin price successfully moved below and reclaimed the May low in the early periods of this month, where it currently trades above the monthly open of $62,772.

比特幣價格在本月初成功跌破並收復 5 月低點，目前交易價格高於月開盤價 62,772 美元。

We are also at the mid-point range of this now 127-day consolidation period. Below are two potential outcomes now that we are at the mid-point of this range.

我們也處於目前 127 天盤整期的中點範圍。既然我們處於該範圍的中點，以下是兩個可能的結果。

Bullish Scenario

看漲情景

Bulls continue to defend any lows, holding above the monthly open. This could lead to a further advance above the current range mid-point.

多頭繼續守住低點，守住月開盤價上方。這可能導致價格進一步上漲至目前區間中點之上。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Failure to hold prices above the monthly open could see a decline closer to the May low region, where prices began to rally.

如果未能將價格保持在月度開盤之上，可能會導致價格下跌至接近五月低點區域，此時價格開始上漲。

My Thoughts

我的想法

We’re at a decision point, the mid-point of a multi-month range. I wouldn’t be surprised even in a bullish scenario that we do cool off for a period of time.

我們正處於一個決策點，即數月範圍的中點。即使在看漲的情況下，我們確實會冷靜一段時間，我也不會感到驚訝。

Aave – AAVE

Aave – AAVE

With the upcoming Ethereum ETF listing, and the recent regulatory cloud clearing I have been analysing some of the other tokens within the Ethereum ecosystem, like AAVE – a DEFI lending protocol. Below is an analysis using Fibonacci extensions.

隨著以太坊 ETF 即將上市，以及最近的監管雲端清算，我一直在分析以太坊生態系統中的一些其他代幣，例如 AAVE——一種 DEFI 借貸協議。以下是使用斐波那契擴展的分析。

Bullish Scenario

看漲情景

Having created a new higher high, we have a key support level for AAVE. If the market continues to hold and trend higher and get above the ‘Golden’ Fibonacci 0.618 level ($121.95), we could then see further advancement.

在創造了新的更高高點後，我們為 AAVE 提供了關鍵支撐位。如果市場繼續保持並走高並突破「黃金」斐波那契 0.618 水準（121.95 美元），那麼我們可能會看到進一步的上漲。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

There is still the potential for downside and new lows should the support levels in grey not be held by the market.

如果市場未能守住灰色支撐位，則仍有可能出現下行和新低點。

Pepe – PEPE

胡椒 – PEPPER

Similar to the above, PEPE is another Ethereum ecosystem token and one of the more notable and prominent meme coins in the last few months. Below is an analysis using Fibonacci extensions.

與上述類似，PEPE 是另一個以太坊生態系統代幣，也是過去幾個月中更引人注目和突出的模因代幣之一。以下是使用斐波那契擴展的分析。

Bullish Scenario

看漲情景

If price were to get above the 0.618 golden fib level, that could be seen as a win for the bulls where we could then see price trend and advance higher if it holds.

如果價格突破 0.618 黃金斐波那契水平，這可能被視為多頭的勝利，然後我們可以看到價格趨勢，如果保持不變，則可以走高。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

This could be a bearish retest of the mid-range, which might see us retest support lower, or even put in new lows.

這可能是對中區間的一次看跌重新測試，可能會導致我們重新測試更低的支撐位，甚至創下新低點。

My Thoughts

我的想法

For altcoins, this week depends on how Bitcoin plays out. If we see a pull-back, we could see altcoins retracing recent rallies. However, if we see Bitcoin continue to consolidate sideways, we may continue to see high performing altcoins continue to rally.

對於山寨幣來說，本週取決於比特幣的表現。如果我們看到回調，我們可能會看到山寨幣回落最近的反彈。然而，如果我們看到比特幣繼續橫盤整理，我們可能會繼續看到表現出色的山寨幣繼續反彈。

See you all again next technical analysis round-up.

下期技術分析綜述再見。

Don’t forget to keep up to date.

不要忘記保持最新狀態。

Stay informed and connected! I’m excited to announce my new YouTube channel, Crypto with Pav, where I dive into the latest trends in cryptocurrency, offering insights on what’s coming next and highlighting news and technical structure I believe is crucial.

保持資訊靈通並保持聯繫！我很高興宣布我的新 YouTube 頻道 Crypto with Pav，在這裡我深入探討加密貨幣的最新趨勢，提供有關未來發展的見解，並重點介紹我認為至關重要的新聞和技術結構。

I’m also on X.

我也在X。

Cheers!

乾杯!