關鍵要點

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發布了一個明顯的警告：全球貿易不再是曾經經濟增長的引擎。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning: global trade is no longer the engine of economic growth it once was, according to Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發出了鮮明的警告：據董事總經理克里斯塔利娜·喬治耶夫（Kristalina Georgieva）稱，全球貿易不再是曾經是經濟增長的引擎。

Speaking at an IMF event in Tokyo, Georgieva highlighted the shifting U.S. policies—on trade, taxation, public spending, deregulation, and digital assets—as key forces reshaping the global financial landscape.

喬治瓦（Georgieva）在國際貨幣基金組織舉行的一項活動中強調，在貿易，稅收，公共支出，放鬆管制和數字資產的政策中，美國政策的轉變是重塑全球金融環境的關鍵力量。

Her remarks come as markets struggle to adjust to President Donald Trump’s wave of tariff hikes, which have triggered retaliatory measures from China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

當市場努力適應唐納德·特朗普總統的關稅遠足浪潮時，她的言論發表了，這引發了從中國，加拿大，墨西哥和歐盟的報復措施。

The escalating trade tensions have already rattled stock markets, and now, the crypto industry finds itself increasingly vulnerable to the broader turmoil.

不斷升級的貿易緊張局勢已經震撼了股票市場，現在，加密貨幣行業發現自己越來越容易受到更廣泛的動蕩的影響。

In times of economic uncertainty, investors typically flock to safe-haven assets. Historically, gold has been the preferred hedge against financial instability, but Bitcoin (BTC) has often been touted as a digital alternative.

在經濟不確定性時期，投資者通常湧向避風港資產。從歷史上看，黃金一直是與金融不穩定的首選對沖，但比特幣（BTC）經常被吹捧為數字替代品。

However, recent market reactions suggest that Bitcoin’s safe-haven status remains in question. The crypto market has not been immune to the effects of the ongoing trade war.

但是，最近的市場反應表明，比特幣的安全狀況仍然存在。加密貨幣市場並不能免疫持續的貿易戰的影響。

Since Trump’s latest tariff escalation, Bitcoin has tumbled nearly 25% from its all-time high in January, with billions of dollars in leveraged positions liquidated over five consecutive days.

自從特朗普最新的關稅升級以來，比特幣從一月份的歷史最高升空中跌出了近25％，連續五天內槓桿率數十億美元。

Despite Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric and campaign promises, cryptocurrencies have struggled under the weight of economic instability. Meanwhile, gold has once again asserted itself as the asset of choice for investors seeking stability, reinforcing doubts about Bitcoin’s ability to function as a crisis hedge.

儘管特朗普的親克賴特言論和競選承諾，但在經濟不穩定的重量下，加密貨幣仍在掙扎。同時，黃金再次宣稱自己是尋求穩定性的投資者的首選資產，這使人們對比特幣充當危機對沖的能力的能力產生了懷疑。

Bitcoin Needs More Than Hype to Weather Economic Shocks

比特幣需要的不僅僅需要炒作才能天氣經濟衝擊

While Trump’s administration has taken a more favorable stance on crypto compared to its predecessors, regulatory clarity and institutional confidence are crucial for Bitcoin to break free from the volatility tied to broader market stress.

儘管與其前任相比，特朗普的政府對加密貨幣採取了更有利的立場，但監管的清晰度和機構信心對於比特幣而言至關重要的是擺脫與更廣泛的市場壓力相關的波動性。

Analysts point to upcoming policy decisions, such as the potential development of a national crypto reserve and the approval of new crypto investment products, as key factors that could drive long-term liquidity into the market.

分析師指出，即將進行的政策決策，例如國家加密保護區的潛在發展以及新的加密投資產品的批准，是可能推動長期流動性進入市場的關鍵因素。

Bitcoin has shown resilience in past crises, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the early months of the crisis, gold outperformed Bitcoin, but by the later stages, Bitcoin had outpaced the precious metal by a significant margin.

比特幣在過去的危機中表現出韌性，尤其是在19日期大流行期間。在危機的早期，黃金的表現就超過了比特幣，但是​​到後期，比特幣已經超過了貴金屬的大幅度。

Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen. For now, as the IMF warns of a world where trade is no longer a reliable growth driver, Bitcoin’s ability to withstand economic turbulence will be put to the test.

歷史是否會重演還有待觀察。就目前而言，正如國際貨幣基金組織警告說，貿易不再是可靠的增長驅動力的世界，比特幣能夠承受經濟動蕩的能力將受到考驗。