关键要点

国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了一个明显的警告：全球贸易不再是曾经经济增长的引擎。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning: global trade is no longer the engine of economic growth it once was, according to Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）发出了鲜明的警告：据董事总经理克里斯塔利娜·乔治耶夫（Kristalina Georgieva）称，全球贸易不再是曾经是经济增长的引擎。

Speaking at an IMF event in Tokyo, Georgieva highlighted the shifting U.S. policies—on trade, taxation, public spending, deregulation, and digital assets—as key forces reshaping the global financial landscape.

乔治瓦（Georgieva）在国际货币基金组织举行的一项活动中强调，在贸易，税收，公共支出，放松管制和数字资产的政策中，美国政策的转变是重塑全球金融环境的关键力量。

Her remarks come as markets struggle to adjust to President Donald Trump’s wave of tariff hikes, which have triggered retaliatory measures from China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

当市场努力适应唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税远足浪潮时，她的言论发表了，这引发了从中国，加拿大，墨西哥和欧盟的报复措施。

The escalating trade tensions have already rattled stock markets, and now, the crypto industry finds itself increasingly vulnerable to the broader turmoil.

不断升级的贸易紧张局势已经震撼了股票市场，现在，加密货币行业发现自己越来越容易受到更广泛的动荡的影响。

In times of economic uncertainty, investors typically flock to safe-haven assets. Historically, gold has been the preferred hedge against financial instability, but Bitcoin (BTC) has often been touted as a digital alternative.

在经济不确定性时期，投资者通常涌向避风港资产。从历史上看，黄金一直是与金融不稳定的首选对冲，但比特币（BTC）经常被吹捧为数字替代品。

However, recent market reactions suggest that Bitcoin’s safe-haven status remains in question. The crypto market has not been immune to the effects of the ongoing trade war.

但是，最近的市场反应表明，比特币的安全状况仍然存在。加密货币市场并不能免疫持续的贸易战的影响。

Since Trump’s latest tariff escalation, Bitcoin has tumbled nearly 25% from its all-time high in January, with billions of dollars in leveraged positions liquidated over five consecutive days.

自从特朗普最新的关税升级以来，比特币从一月份的历史最高升空中跌出了近25％，连续五天内杠杆率数十亿美元。

Despite Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric and campaign promises, cryptocurrencies have struggled under the weight of economic instability. Meanwhile, gold has once again asserted itself as the asset of choice for investors seeking stability, reinforcing doubts about Bitcoin’s ability to function as a crisis hedge.

尽管特朗普的亲克赖特言论和竞选承诺，但在经济不稳定的重量下，加密货币仍在挣扎。同时，黄金再次宣称自己是寻求稳定性的投资者的首选资产，这使人们对比特币充当危机对冲的能力的能力产生了怀疑。

Bitcoin Needs More Than Hype to Weather Economic Shocks

比特币需要的不仅仅需要炒作才能天气经济冲击

While Trump’s administration has taken a more favorable stance on crypto compared to its predecessors, regulatory clarity and institutional confidence are crucial for Bitcoin to break free from the volatility tied to broader market stress.

尽管与其前任相比，特朗普的政府对加密货币采取了更有利的立场，但监管的清晰度和机构信心对于比特币而言至关重要的是摆脱与更广泛的市场压力相关的波动性。

Analysts point to upcoming policy decisions, such as the potential development of a national crypto reserve and the approval of new crypto investment products, as key factors that could drive long-term liquidity into the market.

分析师指出，即将进行的政策决策，例如国家加密保护区的潜在发展以及新的加密投资产品的批准，是可能推动长期流动性进入市场的关键因素。

Bitcoin has shown resilience in past crises, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the early months of the crisis, gold outperformed Bitcoin, but by the later stages, Bitcoin had outpaced the precious metal by a significant margin.

比特币在过去的危机中表现出韧性，尤其是在19日期大流行期间。在危机的早期，黄金的表现就超过了比特币，但是​​到后期，比特币已经超过了贵金属的大幅度。

Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen. For now, as the IMF warns of a world where trade is no longer a reliable growth driver, Bitcoin’s ability to withstand economic turbulence will be put to the test.

历史是否会重演还有待观察。就目前而言，正如国际货币基金组织警告说，贸易不再是可靠的增长驱动力的世界，比特币能够承受经济动荡的能力将受到考验。