投資者囤積比特幣，押注價格飆升

比特幣的平均鏈上轉移價值自 2021 年高峰以來已大幅下降，顯示投資者不願出售。分析師將此歸因於價格上漲的預期，比特幣近期創下的歷史新高就證明了這一點。儘管如此，鏈上活動仍然很低，轉帳額低於 20 萬美元。現貨比特幣 ETF 的湧入被視為比特幣上漲的主要因素，但其他指標表明投資者正在持有比特幣，預計價格將進一步升值。

Are Investors Hoarding Bitcoin, Anticipating a Surge?

投資者是否正在囤積比特幣，期待比特幣價格飆升？

Data from Glassnode reveals that the dollar value of average on-chain transfers on the Bitcoin blockchain remains significantly below its 2021 peak. This trend suggests that investors are holding onto their BTC in anticipation of higher prices, according to analysts at Blockware Solutions.

Glassnode 的數據顯示，比特幣區塊鏈上平均鏈上轉帳的美元價值仍遠低於 2021 年的高峰。 Blockware Solutions 的分析師表示，這一趨勢表明投資者因預期價格上漲而持有比特幣。

Why the Discrepancy?

為什麼會出現差異？

Despite Bitcoin's recent record-breaking highs above $70,000, the real economic activity on its blockchain is subdued. This divergence is partly attributed to strong holding sentiment in the market, as Blockware Solutions analysts note in their newsletter: "Nobody wants to sell."

儘管比特幣最近創下了 7 萬美元以上的破紀錄高點，但其區塊鏈上的實際經濟活動卻很疲軟。這種差異部分歸因於市場強烈的持有情緒，正如 Blockware Solutions 分析師在他們的通訊中指出的那樣：“沒有人願意出售。”

What Defines Transfer Volume?

傳輸量的定義是什麼？

Glassnode defines transfer volume as the U.S. dollar value of all BTC transferred on-chain, excluding unsuccessful transfers. The dollar value of the average transfer volume is currently below $200,000, far below the $1 million and higher levels seen during the 2021 bull market.

Glassnode 將傳輸量定義為鏈上傳輸的所有 BTC 的美元價值，不包括不成功的傳輸。目前平均轉會額的美元價值低於 20 萬美元，遠低於 2021 年多頭市場期間的 100 萬美元及更高水準。

The Role of ETFs

ETF 的作用

The recent rally in Bitcoin has been primarily driven by Wall Street's embrace of Nasdaq-listed spot bitcoin ETFs. This concentration of spot volume in ETFs has contributed to the low on-chain volume.

比特幣最近的上漲主要是由華爾街對納斯達克上市的現貨比特幣 ETF 的歡迎推動的。 ETF 現貨交易量集中導致鏈上交易量較低。

Investors' Holding Patterns

投資人持有模式

Other metrics also indicate that investors who weathered the 2022 bear market are holding onto their BTC, expecting a continued price rally. The percentage of bitcoin supply that was last active between three and five years ago continues to rise. Analysts predict a potential rally into six figures in the coming months, with a peak above $150,000.

其他指標也表明，經歷了 2022 年熊市的投資者仍在持有 BTC，預計價格將持續上漲。最近一次活躍的比特幣供應量是在三到五年前，其供應量的百分比持續上升。分析師預測未來幾個月可能會上漲至六位數，高峰將超過 15 萬美元。

When Will On-Chain Volume Surge?

鏈上交易量什麼時候會激增？

Blockware analysts believe that on-chain volume will surge once the price starts to move significantly. Older coins will be transferred to exchanges for sale. Until then, low on-chain volume is a sign of limited supply and anticipation of further price appreciation.

Blockware 分析師認為，一旦價格開始大幅波動，鏈上交易量將會激增。較舊的硬幣將轉移到交易所出售。在此之前，鏈上交易量較低是供應有限和預期價格進一步上漲的跡象。

Bitcoin's Current Market Position

比特幣當前的市場地位

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, up 5% on a 24-hour basis. The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk 20 Index, is also up 5%.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 67,700 美元，24 小時上漲 5%。更廣泛的市場指標 CoinDesk 20 指數也上漲了 5%。