投资者囤积比特币，押注价格飙升

比特币的平均链上转移价值自 2021 年峰值以来已大幅下降，表明投资者不愿出售。分析师将此归因于价格上涨的预期，比特币近期创下的历史新高就证明了这一点。尽管如此，链上活动仍然很低，转账额低于 200,000 美元。现货比特币 ETF 的涌入被视为比特币上涨的主要因素，但其他指标表明投资者正在持有比特币，预计价格会进一步升值。

Are Investors Hoarding Bitcoin, Anticipating a Surge?

投资者是否正在囤积比特币，期待比特币价格飙升？

Data from Glassnode reveals that the dollar value of average on-chain transfers on the Bitcoin blockchain remains significantly below its 2021 peak. This trend suggests that investors are holding onto their BTC in anticipation of higher prices, according to analysts at Blockware Solutions.

Glassnode 的数据显示，比特币区块链上平均链上转账的美元价值仍远低于 2021 年的峰值。 Blockware Solutions 的分析师表示，这一趋势表明投资者因预期价格上涨而持有比特币。

Why the Discrepancy?

为什么会出现差异？

Despite Bitcoin's recent record-breaking highs above $70,000, the real economic activity on its blockchain is subdued. This divergence is partly attributed to strong holding sentiment in the market, as Blockware Solutions analysts note in their newsletter: "Nobody wants to sell."

尽管比特币最近创下了 70,000 美元以上的破纪录高点，但其区块链上的实际经济活动却很疲软。这种差异部分归因于市场强烈的持有情绪，正如 Blockware Solutions 分析师在他们的时事通讯中指出的那样：“没有人愿意出售。”

What Defines Transfer Volume?

传输量的定义是什么？

Glassnode defines transfer volume as the U.S. dollar value of all BTC transferred on-chain, excluding unsuccessful transfers. The dollar value of the average transfer volume is currently below $200,000, far below the $1 million and higher levels seen during the 2021 bull market.

Glassnode 将传输量定义为链上传输的所有 BTC 的美元价值，不包括不成功的传输。目前平均转会额的美元价值低于 20 万美元，远低于 2021 年牛市期间的 100 万美元及更高水平。

The Role of ETFs

ETF 的作用

The recent rally in Bitcoin has been primarily driven by Wall Street's embrace of Nasdaq-listed spot bitcoin ETFs. This concentration of spot volume in ETFs has contributed to the low on-chain volume.

比特币最近的上涨主要是由华尔街对纳斯达克上市的现货比特币 ETF 的欢迎推动的。 ETF 现货交易量集中导致链上交易量较低。

Investors' Holding Patterns

投资者持有模式

Other metrics also indicate that investors who weathered the 2022 bear market are holding onto their BTC, expecting a continued price rally. The percentage of bitcoin supply that was last active between three and five years ago continues to rise. Analysts predict a potential rally into six figures in the coming months, with a peak above $150,000.

其他指标还表明，经历了 2022 年熊市的投资者仍在持有 BTC，预计价格将持续上涨。最近一次活跃的比特币供应量是在三到五年前，其供应量的百分比持续上升。分析师预测未来几个月可能上涨至六位数，峰值将超过 150,000 美元。

When Will On-Chain Volume Surge?

链上交易量什么时候会激增？

Blockware analysts believe that on-chain volume will surge once the price starts to move significantly. Older coins will be transferred to exchanges for sale. Until then, low on-chain volume is a sign of limited supply and anticipation of further price appreciation.

Blockware 分析师认为，一旦价格开始大幅波动，链上交易量将会激增。较旧的硬币将转移到交易所出售。在此之前，链上交易量较低是供应有限和预期价格进一步上涨的迹象。

Bitcoin's Current Market Position

比特币当前的市场地位

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, up 5% on a 24-hour basis. The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk 20 Index, is also up 5%.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 67,700 美元，24 小时上涨 5%。更广泛的市场指标 CoinDesk 20 指数也上涨了 5%。