全球動盪與聯準會降息預期中，金價創歷史新高

在地緣政治緊張局勢、聯準會降息預期以及央行強勁需求等推動下，4月3日黃金現貨價格飆升至每盎司2,313.50美元的歷史新高。專家預計，隨著聯準會降息，黃金上漲勢頭進一步增強。這可能會在今年下半年開始，被視為對貴金屬有利。此次飆升延續了積極經濟數據推動的為期一周的漲勢，建議投資者在聯準會降息週期開始之前買入黃金股。

Gold Surges to Record High Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

地緣政治緊張和聯準會降息預期推動金價飆升至歷史新高

On Wednesday, April 3, the price of gold soared to an unprecedented high of US$2,313.50 per ounce, marking a continuation of a sustained rally fueled by geopolitical uncertainties and growing anticipation of interest rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve.

4月3日星期三，金價飆升至每盎司2,313.50美元的前所未有的高位，標誌著在地緣政治不確定性和聯準會降息預期增強的推動下持續上漲。

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data Bolster Gold Demand

地緣政治緊張局勢與經濟數據提振黃金需求

Heightened tensions in the Middle East and other regions, coupled with the release of positive economic data, have contributed to the bullish momentum in the gold market. The precious metal is often viewed as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, leading investors to seek its refuge in anticipation of possible market downturns.

中東等地區緊張局勢加劇，加上積極的經濟數據公佈，推動了黃金市場的看漲動能。在不確定時期，貴金屬通常被視為避風港，導致投資者在預期市場可能低迷的情況下尋求避險。

Fed Interest Rate Cuts: A Catalyst for Gold

聯準會降息：黃金的催化劑

Market experts anticipate that the Fed's expected interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2023 will provide further impetus for gold prices. Lower interest rates typically lead to increased demand for gold as they reduce the attractiveness of interest-bearing investments.

市場專家預計，聯準會2023年下半年降息的預期將為金價提供進一步推動。較低的利率通常會導致黃金需求增加，因為它們降低了生息投資的吸引力。

Expert Perspectives on Gold's Future

專家對黃金未來的看法

Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, believes that the Fed's upcoming rate-cutting cycle will have a positive impact on gold, benefiting not only the metal but also associated equities. Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, echoes this sentiment, noting that the market is pricing in a potential Fed pivot.

IndependentSpeculator.com執行長Lobo Tiggre認為，聯準會即將到來的降息週期將對黃金產生正面影響，不僅有利於黃金，還有相關股票。 《黃金通訊》編輯布萊恩·倫丁（Brien Lundin）也同意這種觀點，並指出市場正在消化聯準會潛在的轉向。

However, experts caution that the timing of the Fed's first rate cut remains uncertain, leading to some volatility in the gold market. Nevertheless, Lundin emphasizes that the Fed will likely have to pivot this year due to the rising cost of servicing federal debt at current interest rate levels. This, in turn, will likely boost gold prices.

不過，專家警告稱，聯準會首次降息的時間仍不確定，導致黃金市場出現一定波動。儘管如此，倫丁強調，由於在當前利率水準下償還聯邦債務的成本不斷上升，聯準會今年可能不得不調整策略。這反過來可能會提振金價。

Jerome Powell's Speech and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

傑羅姆鮑威爾的演講和聯準會降息預期

In a speech at the Stanford Graduate School of Business on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is in no rush to ease monetary policy, emphasizing the need for inflation to cool further. Powell stated that the Fed does not anticipate lowering interest rates until it has greater confidence in inflation's trajectory toward the target of 2%.

聯準會主席鮑威爾週三在史丹佛商學院演講時表示，央行並不急於放鬆貨幣政策，強調通膨需要進一步降溫。鮑威爾表示，在對通膨朝2%目標的軌跡更有信心之前，聯準會預計不會降息。

Despite this cautious stance, Powell's speech did not dampen expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, noted that this possibility remains a positive factor for gold as it indicates that the Fed will reduce rates before reaching its inflation target.

儘管立場謹慎，鮑威爾的演講並沒有澆熄2024年降息的預期。道明證券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略全球主管巴特·梅萊克(Bart Melek)指出，這種可能性對黃金來說仍然是一個正面因素，因為這表明聯準會將在2024年之前降息。達到其通膨目標。

Gold Market Projections

黃金市場預測

Chris Blasi, president of Neptune Global, projects that gold is currently in the third leg of a two-decade bull market. He anticipates significant returns for investors who have held precious metals for over a decade.

Neptune Global 總裁 Chris Blasi 預計，黃金目前正處於二十年牛市的第三階段。他預計持有貴金屬十多年的投資者將獲得豐厚回報。

Gold Stocks Lag Behind Gold Prices

黃金股票落後於金價

Despite the record-high gold prices, gold equities have not experienced a commensurate upswing. Rick Rule, proprietor at Rule Investment Media, highlights the significant disconnect between gold metal and gold stock values and believes that the lack of interest in gold equities could be their greatest asset.

儘管金價創下歷史新高，但黃金股票並未經歷相應的上漲。 Rule Investment Media 的老闆 Rick Rule 強調了黃金金屬和黃金股票價值之間的顯著脫節，並認為對黃金股票缺乏興趣可能是他們最大的資產。

Tiggre agrees, noting that gold stocks are facing a lack of interest, which presents investment opportunities. Experts suggest that investors consider positioning themselves in gold stocks before the Fed makes its first rate cut to capitalize on potential bargains.

蒂格雷對此表示同意，並指出黃金股正面臨缺乏興趣，這提供了投資機會。專家建議投資人考慮在聯準會首次降息前買進黃金股，以利用潛在的便宜貨。

Conclusion

結論

The price of gold has soared to unprecedented heights, driven by geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. While the exact timing of the Fed's pivot remains uncertain, experts anticipate that gold will continue to perform well in the medium and long term. Investors are advised to conduct due diligence and consider their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

在地緣政治緊張局勢、央行強勁買盤以及聯準會降息預期的推動下，金價飆升至前所未有的高度。儘管聯準會轉向的具體時機仍不確定，但專家預計黃金中長期將繼續表現良好。建議投資者在做出任何投資決定之前進行盡職調查並考慮自身的風險承受能力。