德國的完美風暴：歐洲經濟巨人如何迷失方向

德國經濟衰退的故事讀起來就像一個警世故事，說明一個國家的命運可以多麼迅速地改變。

Germany's economy, once the envy of Europe, is now facing a "perfect storm" of challenges that threaten its position as the continent's economic powerhouse.

德國經濟曾經令歐洲羨慕，現在正面臨一場「完美風暴」挑戰，威脅其作為歐洲大陸經濟強國的地位。

After years of stellar growth, the numbers are telling a grim story. While other European companies saw their revenues grow by 5.2% in 2023, German companies experienced a 2.6% drop.

經過多年的高速成長，數字正在講述一個嚴峻的故事。 2023 年，其他歐洲公司的收入成長了 5.2%，而德國公司的收入卻下降了 2.6%。

To make matters worse, experts predict a 0.2% decline in the German economy in 2024, following a 0.3% decline in 2023.

更糟的是，專家預測德國經濟在 2023 年下降 0.3% 後，到 2024 年將下降 0.2%。

"Everything that could go wrong went wrong, or is going wrong," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro for ING Research, painting a stark picture of the current situation.

ING Research 全球宏觀主管卡斯滕·布熱斯基 (Carsten Brzeski) 表示：「所有可能出錯的地方都已經出錯，或者正在出錯。」他描繪了一幅嚴峻的當前情況。

Three key problems are hitting Germany at once: the China challenge, the energy crisis aftermath, and an innovation gap.

德國同時面臨三個關鍵問題：中國挑戰、能源危機後果、創新差距。

Once Germany's golden ticket to growth, China has transformed from best customer to fierce competitor. German car makers, who once ruled the Chinese market, now face tough competition from local companies like BYD in the electric vehicle sector.

中國曾經是德國成長的黃金門票，現在已經從最好的客戶轉變為激烈的競爭對手。曾經統治中國市場的德國汽車製造商現在在電動車領域面臨比亞迪等本土企業的激烈競爭。

German exports to China have plummeted, marking the end of a highly profitable era.

德國對華出口大幅下降，標誌著高利潤時代的結束。

"China has become a nightmare for Germany," said Felipe Munoz from JATO Dynamics.

JATO Dynamics 的 Felipe Munoz 表示：“中國已成為德國的噩夢。”

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Germany's energy costs skyrocketed, hitting its manufacturing sector hard.

2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭時，德國能源成本飆升，對其製造業造成沉重打擊。

This sector, making up 18.4% of the economy, has been in recession for over two years.

該產業佔經濟的18.4%，已經陷入衰退兩年多了。

Germany's decision to move away from nuclear power left it dependent on Russian energy. Now, the country is paying the price.

德國放棄核電的決定使其對俄羅斯能源的依賴。現在，國家正在付出代價。

Despite being Europe's technological powerhouse, Germany has failed to embrace innovation and modernization, according to Jens Eisenschmidt, chief Europe economist at Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利首席歐洲經濟學家詹斯·艾森施密特表示，儘管德國是歐洲的技術強國，但它未能擁抱創新和現代化。

The country's ranking in global competitiveness has dropped from 6th place in 2014 to 22nd in 2023, highlighting a concerning lack of progress.

該國的全球競爭力排名已從2014年的第6位下降至2023年的第22位，突顯出令人擔憂的進展不足。

The car industry in Germany, once considered its pride, is currently facing unprecedented challenges.

曾經被視為德國驕傲的汽車工業，目前正面臨前所未有的挑戰。

The car industry, which accounts for 4% of the economy directly and 6% when considering the supply chain, is facing unprecedented challenges.

汽車產業直接佔經濟的4%，考慮到供應鏈則佔6%，正面臨前所未有的挑戰。

Volkswagen, Europe's largest company by revenue, has announced €10 billion in cost cuts, signaling tough times ahead for workers and suppliers.

歐洲收入最大的公司大眾汽車宣布削減 100 億歐元的成本，這預示著工人和供應商未來的日子將會很艱難。

Despite these challenges, Germany remains Europe's largest economy. Some experts, including Brzeski, believe recovery is possible.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，德國仍是歐洲最大的經濟體。包括布熱斯基在內的一些專家相信康復是可能的。

"Germany has shown in the past that it can survive a crisis and structural reforms," he said.

「德國過去已經證明，它能夠挺過危機和結構性改革，」他說。

However, the path forward isn't clear. The country needs to:

然而，前進的道路尚不清楚。國家需要：

- Boost innovation and embrace new technologies to remain competitive in the global economy.

- 促進創新並採用新技術，以在全球經濟中保持競爭力。

- Diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on China and other single markets.

- 實現經濟多元化，減少對中國和其他單一市場的依賴。

- Secure affordable and sustainable energy sources to support its manufacturing sector.

- 確保負擔得起且可持續的能源來支持其製造業。

The coming years will be crucial in determining whether this economic giant can adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing global economy or if it will continue its slide toward what some fear could become a "lost decade."

未來幾年對於決定這個經濟巨人是否能夠適應快速變化的全球經濟並蓬勃發展，或者是否會繼續滑向一些人擔心的「失去的十年」至關重要。