忘了黃金 - 日元是2025年的無聲避風港贏家

隨著黃金繼續佔據頭條新聞，其創紀錄的集會超過$ 3500

The recent price action in the markets has been interesting to follow, especially with the sharp depreciation of the dollar and the strong performance of the yen. As we discussed previously, the trade of "long yen, short S&P 500" would have yielded a 24% return year-to-date, in stark contrast to the battered U.S. equities market.

最近在市場上的價格行動很有趣，尤其是隨著美元的急劇折舊和日元的強勁表現。正如我們之前討論的那樣，“長日元，短期標準普爾500”的交易本來會產生24％的回報，與受虐的美國股票市場形成鮮明對比。

One factor that has likely contributed to the yen's strength is the ongoing feud between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump's persistent criticism of Powell, ranging from accusations of political bias to the suggestion of replacement, has sparked fear among investors over the Federal Reserve's independence.

可能導致日元實力的一個因素是特朗普總統與美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）之間的持續爭執。特朗普對鮑威爾的持續批評，從指控政治偏見到對替代的建議，引發了投資者對美聯儲獨立的恐懼。

This concern, in turn, has driven up demand for non-dollar safe havens, such as gold and the yen. With uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. equities and the dollar, investors appear to be dusting off a classic defensive play—long yen, short S&P 500.

反過來，這種擔憂促使人們對黃金和日元等非美元的安全避風港的需求提高了需求。由於對美國股票和美元的前景不確定性，投資者似乎正在消除經典的防禦性比賽 - 長期日元，短期標準普爾500。

With the dollar index now testing the 100 level and the dollar-yen pair dropping below the psychologically important 140, the stage is set for further weakness in the greenback. Especially if the upcoming U.S.-Japan meetings bring up any currency talks, we could see even more downside from here, according to ING strategist Francesco Pesole.

由於美元指數現在測試了100級，而且美元對一對的速度降至心理重要的140以下，因此階段是在綠背上進一步的弱點。尤其是如果即將舉行的美國日本會議提出任何貨幣談判，我們可以從這裡看到更多的缺點。

Moreover, the Bank of Japan appears committed to its cautious tightening approach, even as inflation estimates are adjusted due to yen strength. This consistency is valuable in uncertain times, and we could see further flows into the yen as a result.

此外，日本銀行似乎致力於其謹慎的收緊方法，即使由於日元強度而調整了通貨膨脹估計。在不確定的時期，這種一致性很有價值，因此我們可以進一步流入日元。

According to Goldman Sachs strategist Kamakshya Trivedi, the yen historically outperforms when both stocks and bonds sell off simultaneously—especially when market volatility spikes. With the CBOE Volatility Index on the rise and recession fears growing, the yen may continue to shine in the months ahead.

據高盛策略師Kamakshya Trivedi表示，日元同時出售的股票和債券出售時，日元歷史上的表現均優於市場，尤其是當市場波動率飆升時。隨著CBOE波動指數的興起和衰退的恐懼，日元可能會在未來幾個月內繼續發光。

While gold's explosive run has dominated headlines, the yen's quiet strength is proving just as telling—offering a clear signal of where global capital is seeking shelter.

雖然黃金的爆炸性奔跑佔據了頭條新聞，但日元的安靜力量也證明了這一點，也可以清楚地表明全球資本在哪裡尋求庇護所。