忘了黄金 - 日元是2025年的无声避风港赢家

随着黄金继续占据头条新闻，其创纪录的集会超过$ 3500

The recent price action in the markets has been interesting to follow, especially with the sharp depreciation of the dollar and the strong performance of the yen. As we discussed previously, the trade of "long yen, short S&P 500" would have yielded a 24% return year-to-date, in stark contrast to the battered U.S. equities market.

最近在市场上的价格行动很有趣，尤其是随着美元的急剧折旧和日元的强劲表现。正如我们之前讨论的那样，“长日元，短期标准普尔500”的交易本来会产生24％的回报，与受虐的美国股票市场形成鲜明对比。

One factor that has likely contributed to the yen's strength is the ongoing feud between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump's persistent criticism of Powell, ranging from accusations of political bias to the suggestion of replacement, has sparked fear among investors over the Federal Reserve's independence.

可能导致日元实力的一个因素是特朗普总统与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）之间的持续争执。特朗普对鲍威尔的持续批评，从指控政治偏见到对替代的建议，引发了投资者对美联储独立的恐惧。

This concern, in turn, has driven up demand for non-dollar safe havens, such as gold and the yen. With uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. equities and the dollar, investors appear to be dusting off a classic defensive play—long yen, short S&P 500.

反过来，这种担忧促使人们对黄金和日元等非美元的安全避风港的需求提高了需求。由于对美国股票和美元的前景不确定性，投资者似乎正在消除经典的防御性比赛 - 长期日元，短期标准普尔500。

With the dollar index now testing the 100 level and the dollar-yen pair dropping below the psychologically important 140, the stage is set for further weakness in the greenback. Especially if the upcoming U.S.-Japan meetings bring up any currency talks, we could see even more downside from here, according to ING strategist Francesco Pesole.

由于美元指数现在测试了100级，而且美元对一对的速度降至心理重要的140以下，因此阶段是在绿背上进一步的弱点。尤其是如果即将举行的美国日本会议提出任何货币谈判，我们可以从这里看到更多的缺点。

Moreover, the Bank of Japan appears committed to its cautious tightening approach, even as inflation estimates are adjusted due to yen strength. This consistency is valuable in uncertain times, and we could see further flows into the yen as a result.

此外，日本银行似乎致力于其谨慎的收紧方法，即使由于日元强度而调整了通货膨胀估计。在不确定的时期，这种一致性很有价值，因此我们可以进一步流入日元。

According to Goldman Sachs strategist Kamakshya Trivedi, the yen historically outperforms when both stocks and bonds sell off simultaneously—especially when market volatility spikes. With the CBOE Volatility Index on the rise and recession fears growing, the yen may continue to shine in the months ahead.

据高盛策略师Kamakshya Trivedi表示，日元同时出售的股票和债券出售时，日元历史上的表现均优于市场，尤其是当市场波动率飙升时。随着CBOE波动指数的兴起和衰退的恐惧，日元可能会在未来几个月内继续发光。

While gold's explosive run has dominated headlines, the yen's quiet strength is proving just as telling—offering a clear signal of where global capital is seeking shelter.

虽然黄金的爆炸性奔跑占据了头条新闻，但日元的安静力量也证明了这一点，也可以清楚地表明全球资本在哪里寻求庇护所。