所有人都關注華盛頓，因為猜測圍繞特朗普提議的比特幣預備役而建立

在一周的市場波動中，隨著特朗普提議的比特幣預備役的猜測，所有人都關注華盛頓。價格徘徊

The crypto market is buzzing with anticipation as speculation around Trump's proposed Bitcoin reserve continues to heat up.

加密貨幣市場引起了人們的期望，因為對特朗普提議的比特幣儲備的猜測繼續升溫。

Now, one Fundstrat analyst is weighing in on the buzzed-about topic, breaking down why the administration's plans might not necessarily translate into a big price move.

現在，一位基金分析師正在對嗡嗡作響的話題進行權衡，這打破了為什麼政府計劃不一定會轉化為巨大的價格轉變。

Sean Farrell, who has been closely following the saga, pointed out that the details of the reserve remain shrouded in mystery.

一直緊隨傳奇的肖恩·法雷爾（Sean Farrell）指出，儲備的細節仍然籠罩在神秘之中。

"We still don’t know how they actually plan to implement this reserve, when they plan to do it, how big it will be, what assets, what will the criteria be for the assets that are included?" Farrell said.

“我們仍然不知道他們實際上計劃如何實施此儲備，當他們打算這樣做時，它將有多大，什麼資產，對於所包括資產的標準將是什麼？”法雷爾說。

The market initially reacted positively to the news, but the uncertainty — and some surprising asset inclusions in Trump's Truth Social posts — left investors a bit hesitant, in his view.

該市場最初對新聞有積極的反應，但是在他看來，不確定性以及特朗普真相社會帖子中的一些令人驚訝的資產包容性 - 在他看來，投資者有些猶豫。

"Had there been more certainty around the reserve and had there not been some suspect assets like Cardano, Solana, and Ripple, which I feel pretty strongly that Bitcoin is the only asset, crypto asset, that has a place in any strategic asset portfolio, we would have seen a little more follow-through," Farrell added.

Farrell補充說：“如果沒有更確定的儲備，並且如果沒有一些可疑資產，例如Cardano，Solana和Ripple，我非常強烈地認為比特幣是唯一的資產，Crypto Asset，在任何戰略資產組合中都佔有一席之地，我們將持續更多的後續資產。”

While he acknowledged that altcoins like Solana and Cardano have speculative value, the idea of the government picking winners among what he called "quasi tech stocks" introduces "some perverse incentives."

儘管他承認像Solana和Cardano這樣的Altcoins具有投機性的價值，但政府在稱為“準理工學院股票”中挑選贏家的想法引入了“一些不正當的激勵措施”。

"The two assets in Cardano and Ripple are essentially, you know, call a spade a spade, they’re ghost chains. I’ve never met anyone, really, outside of people that are involved with the projects that use those chains," Farrell said, highlighting data showing minimal real-world activity on the respective blockchains.

Farrell說：“您知道，Cardano和Ripple中的兩個資產本質上是將Spade稱為Spade，它們是幽靈鏈。我從來沒有見過任何人，實際上，與使用這些鏈條的項目相關的人之外，” Farrell說，突出顯示了顯示各自的塊鏈上最小的現實世界活動的數據。

The inclusion of Solana is also interesting, especially with institutional adoption of the coin heating up.

索拉納的包含也很有趣，尤其是在機構採用硬幣加熱的過程中。

"Solana has a very appetizing story here, and I still like adding Solana here. We have major unlocks already behind the project and we’re going to get CME futures in Solana on March 17, which I think would be a logical progression of events given that we already have the Bitcoin futures, which we’re going to get a new batch of on March 26," Farrell said.

“ Solana在這裡有一個非常開胃的故事，我仍然喜歡在這裡添加Solana。我們已經在該項目背後已經有重大的解鎖，我們將於3月17日在Solana獲得CME Futures，我認為這是對事件的合理髮展，因為我們已經擁有了比特幣期貨，這將在3月26日獲得新批次，” Farrell說。”

He added that a Solana ETF could also be a strong possibility, despite the market's lackluster response to the Ethereum ETF debut.

他補充說，儘管市場對以太坊ETF的首次亮相的反應不足，但Solana ETF也可能是一種強大的可能性。

"We didn't see a huge pop because I think we were wading through a macro backdrop that was, you know, global risk moving lower expeditiously."

“我們沒有看到巨大的流行音樂，因為我認為我們正在涉足宏觀背景，這是全球風險迅速降低的風險。”

The macroeconomic headwinds have made price predictions difficult, but Farrell highlighted that we could be getting close to a tactical turning point.

宏觀經濟的逆風使價格預測變得困難，但Farrell強調，我們可能會接近戰術上的轉折點。

"It has become clear that Trump is actually going to have to fire this gun to show that it works. We're still getting threats of a trade war, which I think would be a macroeconomic event that would have to be digested by the markets before we saw a move in risk assets higher, which we've seen none of this year, as we've been steadily digesting risk. So I do think at least from a tactical perspective, we could be getting near a point where you’re going to want to get more long."

“很明顯，特朗普實際上將不得不開槍表明它有效。我們仍然會受到貿易戰的威脅，我認為這將是一個宏觀經濟事件，在我們的風險資產越來越高的情況下，市場將不得不消化市場，這是我們在今年沒有穩步挖掘的風險的情況下，這是我們不斷努力的，這是我們的努力。

The administration is expected to fully clarify its plans at Friday's crypto summit. According to Farrell, the key questions are whether actual taxpayer dollars will be used to buy Bitcoin or if the government will simply hold onto seized assets.

預計該政府將在周五的加密峰會上充分闡明其計劃。根據法雷爾的說法，關鍵問題是實際的納稅人美元是否將用於購買比特幣，或者政府是否只是僅靠扣押資產來購買。

"If we have a scenario in which they come out and announce their intention to just not sell seized assets, I’m not sure that does too much for price. I think that’s already priced in. But if they do plan to allocate a percentage of its gold reserves into Bitcoin, which I asked the administration directly about and they didn't respond, I think that would move the market more."

“如果我們有一個場景，他們出來並宣布他們的意圖只是不出售被沒收的資產，那麼我不確定這對價格的作用太多了。我認為這已經定價了。但是，如果他們確實計劃將其一定比特的黃金儲量分配給比特幣，我直接問政府，我沒有回應，我認為這會推動更多。”

He noted that an announcement of a 1% allocation would probably not have a huge impact.

他指出，宣布1％的分配可能不會產生巨大影響。

"But if they said 10%, I think that would move the needle."

“但是，如果他們說10％，我認為這會動起針。”

Even with the uncertainty, Farrell's long-term outlook remains unchanged.

即使存在不確定性，Farrell的長期前景仍然沒有改變。

"I haven't changed my medium to long-term thesis, but we’re just kind of reading and reacting right here."

“我沒有將媒介改為長期論文，但是我們只是在這裡閱讀和反應。”

With Bitcoin's $175,000 price target still in his sights, the next move could hinge on whether the government's reserve plans amount to anything more than another round of headlines. Friday's summit might provide the answers — but if history is any guide, it could just bring more questions.

由於比特幣的價格目標仍在他的視線中，因此下一步可以取決於政府的儲備計劃是否比另一輪頭條新聞更重要。星期五的峰會可能會提供答案 - 但是如果歷史記錄是任何指南，它可能會帶來更多問題。