所有人都关注华盛顿，因为猜测围绕特朗普提议的比特币预备役而建立

在一周的市场波动中，随着特朗普提议的比特币预备役的猜测，所有人都关注华盛顿。价格徘徊

The crypto market is buzzing with anticipation as speculation around Trump's proposed Bitcoin reserve continues to heat up.

加密货币市场引起了人们的期望，因为对特朗普提议的比特币储备的猜测继续升温。

Now, one Fundstrat analyst is weighing in on the buzzed-about topic, breaking down why the administration's plans might not necessarily translate into a big price move.

现在，一位基金分析师正在对嗡嗡作响的话题进行权衡，这打破了为什么政府计划不一定会转化为巨大的价格转变。

Sean Farrell, who has been closely following the saga, pointed out that the details of the reserve remain shrouded in mystery.

一直紧随传奇的肖恩·法雷尔（Sean Farrell）指出，储备的细节仍然笼罩在神秘之中。

"We still don’t know how they actually plan to implement this reserve, when they plan to do it, how big it will be, what assets, what will the criteria be for the assets that are included?" Farrell said.

“我们仍然不知道他们实际上计划如何实施此储备，当他们打算这样做时，它将有多大，什么资产，对于所包括资产的标准将是什么？”法雷尔说。

The market initially reacted positively to the news, but the uncertainty — and some surprising asset inclusions in Trump's Truth Social posts — left investors a bit hesitant, in his view.

该市场最初对新闻有积极的反应，但是在他看来，不确定性以及特朗普真相社会帖子中的一些令人惊讶的资产包容性 - 在他看来，投资者有些犹豫。

"Had there been more certainty around the reserve and had there not been some suspect assets like Cardano, Solana, and Ripple, which I feel pretty strongly that Bitcoin is the only asset, crypto asset, that has a place in any strategic asset portfolio, we would have seen a little more follow-through," Farrell added.

Farrell补充说：“如果没有更确定的储备，并且如果没有一些可疑资产，例如Cardano，Solana和Ripple，我非常强烈地认为比特币是唯一的资产，Crypto Asset，在任何战略资产组合中都占有一席之地，我们将持续更多的后续资产。”

While he acknowledged that altcoins like Solana and Cardano have speculative value, the idea of the government picking winners among what he called "quasi tech stocks" introduces "some perverse incentives."

尽管他承认像Solana和Cardano这样的Altcoins具有投机性的价值，但政府在称为“准理工学院股票”中挑选赢家的想法引入了“一些不正当的激励措施”。

"The two assets in Cardano and Ripple are essentially, you know, call a spade a spade, they’re ghost chains. I’ve never met anyone, really, outside of people that are involved with the projects that use those chains," Farrell said, highlighting data showing minimal real-world activity on the respective blockchains.

Farrell说：“您知道，Cardano和Ripple中的两个资产本质上是将Spade称为Spade，它们是幽灵链。我从来没有见过任何人，实际上，与使用这些链条的项目相关的人之外，” Farrell说，突出显示了显示各自的块链上最小的现实世界活动的数据。

The inclusion of Solana is also interesting, especially with institutional adoption of the coin heating up.

索拉纳的包含也很有趣，尤其是在机构采用硬币加热的过程中。

"Solana has a very appetizing story here, and I still like adding Solana here. We have major unlocks already behind the project and we’re going to get CME futures in Solana on March 17, which I think would be a logical progression of events given that we already have the Bitcoin futures, which we’re going to get a new batch of on March 26," Farrell said.

“ Solana在这里有一个非常开胃的故事，我仍然喜欢在这里添加Solana。我们已经在该项目背后已经有重大的解锁，我们将于3月17日在Solana获得CME Futures，我认为这是对事件的合理发展，因为我们已经拥有了比特币期货，这将在3月26日获得新批次，” Farrell说。”

He added that a Solana ETF could also be a strong possibility, despite the market's lackluster response to the Ethereum ETF debut.

他补充说，尽管市场对以太坊ETF的首次亮相的反应不足，但Solana ETF也可能是一种强大的可能性。

"We didn't see a huge pop because I think we were wading through a macro backdrop that was, you know, global risk moving lower expeditiously."

“我们没有看到巨大的流行音乐，因为我认为我们正在涉足宏观背景，这是全球风险迅速降低的风险。”

The macroeconomic headwinds have made price predictions difficult, but Farrell highlighted that we could be getting close to a tactical turning point.

宏观经济的逆风使价格预测变得困难，但Farrell强调，我们可能会接近战术上的转折点。

"It has become clear that Trump is actually going to have to fire this gun to show that it works. We're still getting threats of a trade war, which I think would be a macroeconomic event that would have to be digested by the markets before we saw a move in risk assets higher, which we've seen none of this year, as we've been steadily digesting risk. So I do think at least from a tactical perspective, we could be getting near a point where you’re going to want to get more long."

“很明显，特朗普实际上必须开枪表明它有效。我们仍会受到贸易战争的威胁，我认为这将是一个宏观经济事件，在我们的风险资产上的迁移更高之前，市场将不得不消化市场，而我们在今年中却没有越来越多地越来越多地逐渐挖掘。 长的。”

The administration is expected to fully clarify its plans at Friday's crypto summit. According to Farrell, the key questions are whether actual taxpayer dollars will be used to buy Bitcoin or if the government will simply hold onto seized assets.

预计该政府将在周五的加密峰会上充分阐明其计划。根据法雷尔的说法，关键问题是实际的纳税人美元是否将用于购买比特币，或者政府是否只是仅靠扣押资产来购买。

"If we have a scenario in which they come out and announce their intention to just not sell seized assets, I’m not sure that does too much for price. I think that’s already priced in. But if they do plan to allocate a percentage of its gold reserves into Bitcoin, which I asked the administration directly about and they didn't respond, I think that would move the market more."

“如果我们有一个场景，他们出来并宣布他们的意图只是不出售被没收的资产，那么我不确定这对价格的作用太多了。我认为这已经定价了。但是，如果他们确实计划将其一定比特的黄金储量分配给比特币，我直接问政府，我没有回应，我认为这会推动更多。”

He noted that an announcement of a 1% allocation would probably not have a huge impact.

他指出，宣布1％的分配可能不会产生巨大影响。

"But if they said 10%, I think that would move the needle."

“但是，如果他们说10％，我认为这会动起针。”

Even with the uncertainty, Farrell's long-term outlook remains unchanged.

即使存在不确定性，Farrell的长期前景仍然没有改变。

"I haven't changed my medium to long-term thesis, but we’re just kind of reading and reacting right here."

“我没有将媒介改为长期论文，但是我们只是在这里阅读和反应。”

With Bitcoin's $175,000 price target still in his sights, the next move could hinge on whether the government's reserve plans amount to anything more than another round of headlines. Friday's summit might provide the answers — but if history is any guide, it could just bring more questions.

由于比特币的价格目标仍在他的视线中，因此下一步可以取决于政府的储备计划是否比另一轮头条新闻更重要。星期五的峰会可能会提供答案 - 但是如果历史记录是任何指南，它可能会带来更多问题。