由於專家預測結果為負面，以太坊現貨 ETF 不太可能獲得批准

圍繞以太坊現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）批准的不確定性已經出現，業界人士對其機會表示悲觀。 Tron 創辦人 Justin Sun 預計 SEC 在 5 月的最後期限內不會批准，理由是需要在加密領域進行進一步的監管教育。儘管今年稍早樂觀情緒高漲，但 Polymarket 數據顯示支持率下降至 11%，而 Bloomberg Intelligence 分析師 Eric Balchunas 將其預測下調至 35%。

Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Chances Dwindle as Industry Experts Express Pessimism

業界專家表達悲觀情緒，以太坊現貨 ETF 核准機會減少

Washington, D.C. - The highly anticipated approval of Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears increasingly unlikely, with experts expressing growing pessimism about the prospects of approval by the May 23 deadline.

華盛頓特區- 備受期待的以太坊現貨交易所交易基金(ETF) 獲得美國證券交易委員會(SEC) 批准的可能性似乎越來越小，專家們對5 月23 日截止日期之前獲得批准的前景表示越來越悲觀。

Tron Founder Justin Sun Predicts Negative Outcome

Tron 創辦人孫宇晨預測負面結果

Justin Sun, founder of the Tron network, has predicted that the SEC will not approve spot ETH ETFs in the coming month. Sun believes that the industry needs to prepare for a lengthy education process to assist regulators in understanding cryptocurrencies.

Tron 網路創辦人孫宇晨（Justin Sun）預測 SEC 不會在下個月批准現貨 ETH ETF。 Sun認為，該行業需要為漫長的教育過程做好準備，以幫助監管機構了解加密貨幣。

Industry Sentiment Mirrors Sun's Pessimism

行業情緒反映了Sun的悲觀情緒

Sun's skepticism is shared by other prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF store, has also hinted at the possibility of rejection due to the SEC's reduced involvement with ETH spot ETF issuers.

加密貨幣領域的其他知名人士也持有孫宇晨的懷疑態度。 ETF 商店總裁 Nate Geraci 也暗示，由於 SEC 減少了對 ETH 現貨 ETF 發行人的參與，因此有可能被拒絕。

Polymarket Predicts Low Odds of Approval

Polymarket 預計批准幾率較低

Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, suggests that the chances of SEC approval have plummeted to just 11%. This is a significant drop from the 76% odds assigned to Bitcoin Spot ETFs when they were approved on January 10.

去中心化預測市場平台 Polymarket 的數據顯示，獲得 SEC 批准的幾率已驟降至 11%。這與 1 月 10 日比特幣現貨 ETF 獲得批准時分配給 76% 的賠率相比大幅下降。

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Revises Down Odds

彭博資訊分析師下調賠率

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has also adjusted his approval odds to around 35%, down from his initial prediction of 70% in February. Balchunas cites the absence of the same signals that led him to an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin spot ETFs as a reason for his revised stance.

彭博資訊 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 分析師 Eric Balchunas 也將其支持率從 2 月最初預測的 70% 調整至 35% 左右。 Balchunas 表示，由於沒有出現讓他對比特幣現貨 ETF 前景持樂觀態度的訊號，因此他修改了立場。

Reasons for SEC Hesitation

SEC 猶豫的原因

Despite the industry's desire for approval, the SEC has expressed concerns over the risks associated with cryptocurrency ETFs. These concerns include market volatility, potential for manipulation, and the need for rigorous surveillance.

儘管業界渴望獲得批准，但 SEC 仍對加密貨幣 ETF 相關風險表示擔憂。這些擔憂包括市場波動、操縱的可能性以及嚴格監控的必要性。

Long-Term Approval Potential

長期批准潛力

While the May deadline appears unlikely to be met, some experts believe that spot ETH ETFs have the potential to be approved in the long term. Balchunas, despite his lower odds for the May deadline, maintains that approval is likely to occur eventually.

雖然 5 月的最後期限似乎不太可能實現，但一些專家認為，從長期來看，現貨 ETH ETF 有可能獲得批准。儘管巴爾丘納斯在五月最後期限的可能性較低，但他堅持最終可能會獲得批准。

Conclusion

結論

The fate of Ethereum Spot ETFs remains uncertain as the SEC deadline approaches. Industry experts are expressing increasing pessimism about approval by May, but the long-term prospects for these products remain unclear. The SEC's cautious approach and concerns over potential risks are likely to continue to play a significant role in the approval process.

隨著 SEC 截止日期的臨近，以太坊現貨 ETF 的命運仍然不確定。行業專家對 5 月的批准表示越來越悲觀，但這些產品的長期前景仍不明朗。美國證券交易委員會的謹慎態度和對潛在風險的擔憂可能會繼續在審批過程中發揮重要作用。