由于专家预测结果为负面，以太坊现货 ETF 不太可能获得批准

围绕以太坊现货交易所交易基金（ETF）批准的不确定性已经出现，行业人士对其机会表示悲观。 Tron 创始人 Justin Sun 预计 SEC 在 5 月份的最后期限内不会批准，理由是需要在加密领域进行进一步的监管教育。尽管今年早些时候乐观情绪高涨，但 Polymarket 数据显示支持率下降至 11%，而 Bloomberg Intelligence 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 将其预测下调至 35%。

Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Chances Dwindle as Industry Experts Express Pessimism

行业专家表达悲观情绪，以太坊现货 ETF 批准机会减少

Washington, D.C. - The highly anticipated approval of Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears increasingly unlikely, with experts expressing growing pessimism about the prospects of approval by the May 23 deadline.

华盛顿特区 - 备受期待的以太坊现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 获得美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准的可能性似乎越来越小，专家们对 5 月 23 日截止日期之前获得批准的前景表示越来越悲观。

Tron Founder Justin Sun Predicts Negative Outcome

Tron 创始人孙宇晨预测负面结果

Justin Sun, founder of the Tron network, has predicted that the SEC will not approve spot ETH ETFs in the coming month. Sun believes that the industry needs to prepare for a lengthy education process to assist regulators in understanding cryptocurrencies.

Tron 网络创始人孙宇晨（Justin Sun）预测 SEC 不会在下个月批准现货 ETH ETF。 Sun认为，该行业需要为漫长的教育过程做好准备，以帮助监管机构了解加密货币。

Industry Sentiment Mirrors Sun's Pessimism

行业情绪反映了Sun的悲观情绪

Sun's skepticism is shared by other prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF store, has also hinted at the possibility of rejection due to the SEC's reduced involvement with ETH spot ETF issuers.

加密货币领域的其他知名人士也持有孙宇晨的怀疑态度。 ETF 商店总裁 Nate Geraci 也暗示，由于 SEC 减少了对 ETH 现货 ETF 发行人的参与，因此有可能被拒绝。

Polymarket Predicts Low Odds of Approval

Polymarket 预计批准几率较低

Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, suggests that the chances of SEC approval have plummeted to just 11%. This is a significant drop from the 76% odds assigned to Bitcoin Spot ETFs when they were approved on January 10.

去中心化预测市场平台 Polymarket 的数据显示，获得 SEC 批准的几率已骤降至 11%。这与 1 月 10 日比特币现货 ETF 获得批准时分配给 76% 的赔率相比大幅下降。

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Revises Down Odds

彭博资讯分析师下调赔率

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has also adjusted his approval odds to around 35%, down from his initial prediction of 70% in February. Balchunas cites the absence of the same signals that led him to an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin spot ETFs as a reason for his revised stance.

彭博资讯 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 也将其支持率从 2 月份最初预测的 70% 调整至 35% 左右。 Balchunas 表示，由于没有出现让他对比特币现货 ETF 前景持乐观态度的信号，因此他修改了立场。

Reasons for SEC Hesitation

SEC 犹豫的原因

Despite the industry's desire for approval, the SEC has expressed concerns over the risks associated with cryptocurrency ETFs. These concerns include market volatility, potential for manipulation, and the need for rigorous surveillance.

尽管业界渴望获得批准，但 SEC 仍对加密货币 ETF 相关风险表示担忧。这些担忧包括市场波动、操纵的可能性以及严格监控的必要性。

Long-Term Approval Potential

长期批准潜力

While the May deadline appears unlikely to be met, some experts believe that spot ETH ETFs have the potential to be approved in the long term. Balchunas, despite his lower odds for the May deadline, maintains that approval is likely to occur eventually.

虽然 5 月份的最后期限似乎不太可能实现，但一些专家认为，从长期来看，现货 ETH ETF 有可能获得批准。尽管巴尔丘纳斯在五月最后期限的可能性较低，但他坚持认为最终可能会获得批准。

Conclusion

结论

The fate of Ethereum Spot ETFs remains uncertain as the SEC deadline approaches. Industry experts are expressing increasing pessimism about approval by May, but the long-term prospects for these products remain unclear. The SEC's cautious approach and concerns over potential risks are likely to continue to play a significant role in the approval process.

随着 SEC 截止日期的临近，以太坊现货 ETF 的命运仍然不确定。行业专家对 5 月份的批准表示越来越悲观，但这些产品的长期前景仍不明朗。美国证券交易委员会的谨慎态度和对潜在风险的担忧可能会继续在审批过程中发挥重要作用。