以太坊 (ETH) 價格預測：隨著美國大選臨近，ETH 可能在 2022 年上漲至 10,000 美元

儘管全球第二大加密貨幣的交易價格比 3 月高點低了近 40%，但以太幣在未來幾個月可能會達到 10,000 美元的高點。

Second only to Bitcoin in terms of market capitalisation, Ether price has largely lagged behind its bigger rival in 2023.

就市值而言，以太幣價格僅次於比特幣，到 2023 年，其價格已大幅落後於其更大的競爭對手。

While the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency is trading almost 40% below its March high, several factors suggest that Ether may be poised to reach as high as $10,000 in the coming months.

儘管全球第二大加密貨幣的交易價格比 3 月高點低了近 40%，但多項因素表明，以太幣可能在未來幾個月內達到 10,000 美元的高點。

Standard Chartered made that prediction in a recent research note as the cryptocurrency lags behind Bitcoin, which trades just 5% below its record $73,800 high from March.

渣打銀行在最近的一份研究報告中做出了這項預測，因為加密貨幣落後於比特幣，比特幣的交易價格僅比 3 月創下的 73,800 美元的歷史高點低 5%。

However, three big factors suggest that things may be about to change.

然而，三大因素顯示情況可能即將改變。

The US election

美國大選

Analysts widely expect the US election next week to spark a fresh crypto rally as both candidates have made pro-crypto overtures.

分析師普遍預計下週的美國大選將引發新的加密貨幣反彈，因為兩位候選人都提出了支持加密貨幣的提議。

However, a win by Donald Trump is seen as more bullish than a Kamala Harris victory as the former president is viewed as being more aligned with the industry.

然而，唐納德·特朗普的勝利被認為比卡馬拉·哈里斯的勝利更加樂觀，因為這位前總統被認為與該行業更加一致。

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said he expected Ether to jump some 300% to $10,000 by the end of next year if Trump recaptures the White House.

渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 表示，如果川普重新入主白宮，他預計 ETH 到明年年底將上漲 300% 至 1 萬美元。

A win by Harris would see a less dramatic rise to $7,000, he predicted.

他預測，如果哈里斯獲勝，獎金將不那麼戲劇性地上漲至 7,000 美元。

Ethereum futures

以太坊期貨

Another bullish sign, according to analysts, is the sentiment among traders in the Ethereum futures market.

分析師表示，另一個看漲訊號是以太坊期貨市場交易者的情緒。

Futures are a type of speculative investment contract that allows people to bet on the future price of an asset.

期貨是一種投機投資合約，允許人們押注資產的未來價格。

ShayanBTC, a pseudonymous contributor to data firm CryptoQuant, noted that sentiment among futures traders is turning bullish, based on the Ether funding rate metric, which measures the aggression of buyers versus sellers in the futures market.

數據公司 CryptoQuant 的匿名撰稿人 ShayanBTC 指出，根據以太融資率指標，期貨交易員的情緒正在變得看漲，該指標衡量期貨市場上買家與賣家的攻擊性。

If the metric is positive, then traders’ outlook is bullish. The opposite applies if the metric is negative.

如果該指標為正，則交易者的前景看漲。如果度量為負，則相反。

“Currently, the funding rates are in positive territory with a slight upward trend, indicating that futures traders have shifted towards a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum,” ShayanBTC said in a recent note.

ShayanBTC 在最近的一份報告中表示：“目前，資金利率處於正值區域，並呈小幅上升趨勢，這表明期貨交易者已經轉向對以太坊更加樂觀的前景。”

They cautioned that while the rates are rising, they have not yet “reached the intensity required to fuel a significant breakout.”

他們警告說，雖然利率正在上升，但尚未「達到推動重大突破所需的強度」。

Institutional uptake

機構吸收

Finally, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have so far failed to capture traders’ attention to the same degree as Bitcoin ETFs.

最後，美國現貨以太坊交易所交易基金迄今未能像比特幣 ETF 那樣吸引交易者的注意。

The investment vehicles allow traders to easily gain exposure to the asset via asset managers and brokerages, without the need to venture into the realm of crypto exchanges and self-custody.

這些投資工具使交易者可以透過資產管理公司和經紀公司輕鬆獲得資產敞口，而無需冒險進入加密貨幣交易所和自我託管領域。

Since launching in January, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen total net inflows of over $24 billion, according to SoSoValue. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs have seen total net outflows of over $480 million since launching in July.

據 SoSoValue 稱，自 1 月推出以來，現貨比特幣 ETF 的淨流入總額已超過 240 億美元。同時，自 7 月推出以來，以太坊 ETF 的淨流出總額已超過 4.8 億美元。

Shauli Rejwan, managing partner at Masterkey.VC, suggested that institutional interest could pick up in the coming months.

Masterkey.VC 的執行合夥人 Shauli Rejwan 表示，機構興趣可能會在未來幾個月內回升。

“We’ll start seeing Wall Street interest materialise in roughly six to 10 months,” he told DL News. “Or maybe the bull run will accelerate their decision.”

「我們將開始看到華爾街的興趣在大約 6 到 10 個月內實現，」他告訴 DL News。 “或許牛市會加速他們的決定。”

Is Ether overvalued?

以太幣是否被高估？

Others are not as bullish.

其他人則不那麼樂觀。

In a recent blog, CoinShares analyst Matthew Kimmell argued that Ethereum is now overvalued.

在最近的部落格中，CoinShares 分析師 Matthew Kimmell 認為以太坊現在被高估了。

The March Dencun upgrade made layer 2 settlements significantly cheaper, but it also reduced the fees users pay to use the main blockchain, Kimmell said.

Kimmell 表示，3 月的 Dencun 升級使第 2 層結算成本大幅降低，但也降低了用戶使用主區塊鏈所支付的費用。

CoinShares previously predicted that the price of Ether could reach over $8,000 in five years time. However, the unexpected drop in fees has rendered that estimate “a miserable over calculation,” Kimmell wrote.

CoinShares 先前預測 ETH 在 5 年內的價格可能會達到 8,000 美元以上。然而，費用的意外下降使得這一估計“計算得非常糟糕”，金梅爾寫道。

Crypto market movers

加密貨幣市場推動者

What we’re reading

我們正在讀什麼

Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.

凱爾貝爾德 (Kyle Baird) 是 DL News 的周末編輯。有小費嗎？電子郵件：kbaird@dlnews.com。