以太坊 (ETH) 价格预测：随着美国大选临近，ETH 可能在 2022 年上涨至 10,000 美元

尽管全球第二大加密货币的交易价格比 3 月份高点低了近 40%，但以太币在未来几个月可能会达到 10,000 美元的高位。

Second only to Bitcoin in terms of market capitalisation, Ether price has largely lagged behind its bigger rival in 2023.

就市值而言，以太坊价格仅次于比特币，到 2023 年，其价格已大幅落后于其更大的竞争对手。

While the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency is trading almost 40% below its March high, several factors suggest that Ether may be poised to reach as high as $10,000 in the coming months.

尽管全球第二大加密货币的交易价格比 3 月份高点低了近 40%，但多项因素表明，以太币可能在未来几个月内达到 10,000 美元的高位。

Standard Chartered made that prediction in a recent research note as the cryptocurrency lags behind Bitcoin, which trades just 5% below its record $73,800 high from March.

渣打银行在最近的一份研究报告中做出了这一预测，因为加密货币落后于比特币，比特币的交易价格仅比 3 月份创下的 73,800 美元的历史高点低 5%。

However, three big factors suggest that things may be about to change.

然而，三大因素表明情况可能即将发生变化。

The US election

美国大选

Analysts widely expect the US election next week to spark a fresh crypto rally as both candidates have made pro-crypto overtures.

分析师普遍预计下周的美国大选将引发新的加密货币反弹，因为两位候选人都提出了支持加密货币的提议。

However, a win by Donald Trump is seen as more bullish than a Kamala Harris victory as the former president is viewed as being more aligned with the industry.

然而，唐纳德·特朗普的胜利被认为比卡马拉·哈里斯的胜利更加乐观，因为这位前总统被认为与该行业更加一致。

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said he expected Ether to jump some 300% to $10,000 by the end of next year if Trump recaptures the White House.

渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 表示，如果特朗普重新入主白宫，他预计 ETH 到明年年底将上涨 300% 至 10,000 美元。

A win by Harris would see a less dramatic rise to $7,000, he predicted.

他预测，如果哈里斯获胜，奖金将不那么戏剧性地上涨至 7,000 美元。

Ethereum futures

以太坊期货

Another bullish sign, according to analysts, is the sentiment among traders in the Ethereum futures market.

分析师表示，另一个看涨信号是以太坊期货市场交易者的情绪。

Futures are a type of speculative investment contract that allows people to bet on the future price of an asset.

期货是一种投机投资合约，允许人们押注资产的未来价格。

ShayanBTC, a pseudonymous contributor to data firm CryptoQuant, noted that sentiment among futures traders is turning bullish, based on the Ether funding rate metric, which measures the aggression of buyers versus sellers in the futures market.

数据公司 CryptoQuant 的匿名撰稿人 ShayanBTC 指出，根据以太融资率指标，期货交易员的情绪正在变得看涨，该指标衡量期货市场上买家与卖家的攻击性。

If the metric is positive, then traders’ outlook is bullish. The opposite applies if the metric is negative.

如果该指标为正，则交易者的前景看涨。如果度量为负，则相反。

“Currently, the funding rates are in positive territory with a slight upward trend, indicating that futures traders have shifted towards a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum,” ShayanBTC said in a recent note.

ShayanBTC 在最近的一份报告中表示：“目前，资金利率处于正值区域，并呈小幅上升趋势，这表明期货交易者已经转向对以太坊更加乐观的前景。”

They cautioned that while the rates are rising, they have not yet “reached the intensity required to fuel a significant breakout.”

他们警告说，虽然利率正在上升，但尚未“达到推动重大突破所需的强度”。

Institutional uptake

机构吸收

Finally, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have so far failed to capture traders’ attention to the same degree as Bitcoin ETFs.

最后，美国现货以太坊交易所交易基金迄今为止未能像比特币 ETF 那样吸引交易者的注意力。

The investment vehicles allow traders to easily gain exposure to the asset via asset managers and brokerages, without the need to venture into the realm of crypto exchanges and self-custody.

这些投资工具使交易者可以通过资产管理公司和经纪公司轻松获得资产敞口，而无需冒险进入加密货币交易所和自我托管领域。

Since launching in January, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen total net inflows of over $24 billion, according to SoSoValue. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs have seen total net outflows of over $480 million since launching in July.

据 SoSoValue 称，自 1 月份推出以来，现货比特币 ETF 的净流入总额已超过 240 亿美元。与此同时，自 7 月推出以来，以太坊 ETF 的净流出总额已超过 4.8 亿美元。

Shauli Rejwan, managing partner at Masterkey.VC, suggested that institutional interest could pick up in the coming months.

Masterkey.VC 的执行合伙人 Shauli Rejwan 表示，机构兴趣可能会在未来几个月内回升。

“We’ll start seeing Wall Street interest materialise in roughly six to 10 months,” he told DL News. “Or maybe the bull run will accelerate their decision.”

“我们将开始看到华尔街的兴趣在大约 6 到 10 个月内实现，”他告诉 DL News。 “或许牛市会加速他们的决定。”

Is Ether overvalued?

以太币是否被高估？

Others are not as bullish.

其他人则不那么乐观。

In a recent blog, CoinShares analyst Matthew Kimmell argued that Ethereum is now overvalued.

在最近的一篇博客中，CoinShares 分析师 Matthew Kimmell 认为以太坊现在被高估了。

The March Dencun upgrade made layer 2 settlements significantly cheaper, but it also reduced the fees users pay to use the main blockchain, Kimmell said.

Kimmell 表示，3 月份的 Dencun 升级使第 2 层结算成本显着降低，但也降低了用户使用主区块链所支付的费用。

CoinShares previously predicted that the price of Ether could reach over $8,000 in five years time. However, the unexpected drop in fees has rendered that estimate “a miserable over calculation,” Kimmell wrote.

CoinShares 此前预测 5 年内 ETH 的价格可能会达到 8,000 美元以上。然而，费用的意外下降使得这一估计“计算得非常糟糕”，金梅尔写道。

Crypto market movers

加密货币市场推动者

What we’re reading

我们正在读什么

Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.

凯尔·贝尔德 (Kyle Baird) 是 DL News 的周末编辑。有小费吗？电子邮件：kbaird@dlnews.com。