以太坊（ETH）價格預測：下跌至$ 1,800是否是購買機會？

以太坊的價格在最近幾週急劇下降，測試了關鍵支持水平並觸發分析師之間的辯論

The price of Ethereum has dropped sharply in recent weeks, testing key support levels and sparking debate among analysts about whether this signals further downside or a buying opportunity.

以太坊的價格在最近幾週急劇下降，測試了關鍵支持水平，並在分析師之間引發了關於這是進一步信號或購買機會的辯論。

Market data provides a mixed picture with both bearish pressure and potential recovery signals emerging.

市場數據提供了帶有看跌壓力和潛在恢復信號的混合圖片。

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell 9.3% between March 26 and March 28, testing the $1,860 level for the first time in two weeks. This correction led to over $114 million in liquidations of leveraged ETH futures.

在3月26日至3月28日之間，劃分市值的第二大加密貨幣下降了9.3％，在兩週內首次測試了1,860美元的水平。這種更正導致超過1.14億美元的槓桿期貨清算。

The futures premium relative to the spot market dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Currently, at 2% annualized premium, this suggests a lack of demand for leveraged long positions.

相對於現貨市場的期貨溢價在一年多以來下降到其最低水平。目前，每年2％的年度保費表明對槓桿率的長位缺乏需求。

Some traders view this rock-bottom futures premium as a potential bottom signal. However, historical data shows this indicator is heavily influenced by recent price movements and rarely signals changes in the spot price trend.

一些交易者將這種岩石底貨期貨保費視為潛在的底部信號。但是，歷史數據表明，該指標受到最近的價格變動的很大影響，並且很少表示現貨價格趨勢的變化。

The options markets tell a similar story. The 25% delta skew, which measures how the market prices put (sell) options compared to call (buy) options, currently sits at 7%.

期權市場講述了類似的故事。 25％的三角洲偏斜，它衡量了市場價格與撥打（買入）期權相比的價格（賣出）期權的方式，目前為7％。

When this metric rises above 6%, it typically indicates higher demand for hedging strategies, suggesting professional traders expect continued downward pressure. The current reading suggests a lack of conviction among these market participants.

當該指標上升到6％以上時，通常表明對對沖策略的需求更高，這表明專業交易者預計會繼續向下壓力。當前的閱讀表明這些市場參與者缺乏信念。

From a technical perspective, ETH is positioned at a clear support zone between $1,700 and $1,900. This range has historically acted as a launch pad for recoveries.

從技術角度來看，ETH位於1,700美元至1,900美元之間的明確支持區。該系列歷史上一直充當恢復的發射台。

Previous declines to this area have triggered strong price surges. One analyst points out that Ethereum is trading within a long-term macro price range between $1,700 and $4,500.

以前對該地區的下降引發了巨大的價格飆升。一位分析師指出，以太坊的長期宏觀價格範圍內的交易範圍在1,700美元至4,500美元之間。

Despite underperforming compared to Solana during this bull market, ETH has still doubled from its 2022 low. This performance surpasses that of most other altcoins.

儘管在這個牛市中，與索拉納相比表現不佳，但ETH的表現仍比其2022年的低點增加了一倍。這種性能超過了大多數其他山寨幣。

The sentiment around Ethereum has reached extreme lows. According to one analyst, the current market sentiment score shows Ethereum has hit rock bottom at 14, signaling extreme fear and uncertainty.

以太坊的情緒達到了極高的低點。根據一位分析師的說法，當前的市場情緒得分錶明以太坊已在14歲時達到岩石底部，這表明了極端的恐懼和不確定性。

Historical data suggests that when ETH reaches similar sentiment lows, as it did in late 2017 and 2021, the cryptocurrency often experiences a subsequent rally to new all-time highs.

歷史數據表明，當ETH達到類似的情感低點時，就像在2017年底和2021年一樣，加密貨幣經常會經歷隨後的新歷史高潮集。

Short-term traders appear heavily positioned for further downside. Data from on-chain analytics firm Coinglass reveals that traders betting on the short side are currently over-leveraged at $1,925, having built $391 million worth of short positions at this level.

短期交易者顯得很大程度上是不利的。鏈分析公司Coinglass的數據表明，交易者在短側的賭注目前的槓桿作用為1,925美元，在此級別上建立了價值3.91億美元的短職位。

Meanwhile, traders betting on price increases have built only $120 million worth of long positions at $1,855. This imbalance clearly indicates that bears currently dominate the market.

同時，貿易商押注價格上漲僅建立了價值1.2億美元的長頭寸，$ 1,855。這種不平衡清楚地表明，熊當前在市場上占主導地位。

Ethereum faces several fundamental challenges. Some analysts argue that the sharp decline in network activity is the primary reason for ETH’s reduced appeal.

以太坊面臨幾個基本挑戰。一些分析人士認為，網絡活動的急劇下降是ETH吸引力下降的主要原因。

Others suggest that the shift toward layer-2 scalability solutions has significantly diminished the potential of base chain fees. With validators requiring compensation, the lack of capital inflow may require more ETH issuance, potentially affecting net returns from native staking.

其他人則認為向2層可伸縮性解決方案的轉變顯著降低了基本鏈費用的潛力。由於需要賠償的驗證者，缺乏資本流入可能需要更多的ETH發行，從而可能影響本地積分的淨回報。

The competition from other blockchains also puts pressure on Ethereum. Networks like BNB Chain and Solana continue to gain traction, while specialized networks like Hyperliquid and Berachain target specific use cases.

來自其他區塊鏈的競爭也給以太坊施加了壓力。 BNB鍊和Solana等網絡繼續獲得吸引力，而專門的網絡（例如Hyperliquid and Berachain和Berachain）的特定用例。

The migration of successful decentralized applications (DApps) away from Ethereum presents another challenge. For instance, Ethena, a synthetic dollar protocol currently holding $5.3 billion in total value locked (TVL), is transferring to its own layer-1 blockchain after raising $100 million in December 2024.

成功的分散應用程序（DAPP）遠離以太坊的遷移提出了另一個挑戰。例如，目前持有53億美元總價值鎖定（TVL）的合成美元協議Ethena將在2024年12月籌集1億美元後轉移到其自己的1層區塊鏈。

Despite these challenges, Ethereum has an important protocol update approaching. The Pectra upgrade, scheduled for the coming weeks, could provide practical benefits in terms of base layer fees and overall usability.

儘管有這些挑戰，以太坊仍在進行重要的協議更新接近。 Pectra升級計劃在未來幾週內進行，可以在基本費用和總體可用性方面提供實際收益。

Analysts suggest that if ETH can manage to reclaim the $2,100 level, the cryptocurrency could move rapidly toward $4,000 in just a few months.

分析師建議，如果ETH可以設法收回2,100美元的水平，那麼幾個月內，加密貨幣可能會迅速轉移到4,000美元。

The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision in mid-April may also provide renewed bullish momentum that could benefit Ethereum’s price trajectory.

即將在4月中旬即將到來的美聯儲貨幣政策決定也可能會提供新的看漲勢頭，這可能會使以太坊的價格軌跡受益。

At press time, Ethereum is trading at $1,870, with trading volume jumping by 50% over the past 24 hours. This increased participation from traders and investors compared to the previous day suggests heightened market interest at current price levels.

發稿時，以太坊的交易價格為1,870美元，在過去的24小時內，交易量增長了50％。與前一天相比，交易者和投資者的參與增加表明，當前價格水平的市場興趣提高。