以太坊（ETH）价格预测：下跌至$ 1,800是否是购买机会？

以太坊的价格在最近几周急剧下降，测试了关键支持水平并触发分析师之间的辩论

The price of Ethereum has dropped sharply in recent weeks, testing key support levels and sparking debate among analysts about whether this signals further downside or a buying opportunity.

以太坊的价格在最近几周急剧下降，测试了关键支持水平，并在分析师之间引发了关于这是进一步信号或购买机会的辩论。

Market data provides a mixed picture with both bearish pressure and potential recovery signals emerging.

市场数据提供了带有看跌压力和潜在恢复信号的混合图片。

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell 9.3% between March 26 and March 28, testing the $1,860 level for the first time in two weeks. This correction led to over $114 million in liquidations of leveraged ETH futures.

在3月26日至3月28日之间，划分市值的第二大加密货币下降了9.3％，在两周内首次测试了1,860美元的水平。这种更正导致超过1.14亿美元的杠杆期货清算。

The futures premium relative to the spot market dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Currently, at 2% annualized premium, this suggests a lack of demand for leveraged long positions.

相对于现货市场的期货溢价在一年多以来下降到其最低水平。目前，每年2％的年度保费表明对杠杆率的长位缺乏需求。

Some traders view this rock-bottom futures premium as a potential bottom signal. However, historical data shows this indicator is heavily influenced by recent price movements and rarely signals changes in the spot price trend.

一些交易者将这种岩石底货期货保费视为潜在的底部信号。但是，历史数据表明，该指标受到最近的价格变动的很大影响，并且很少表示现货价格趋势的变化。

The options markets tell a similar story. The 25% delta skew, which measures how the market prices put (sell) options compared to call (buy) options, currently sits at 7%.

期权市场讲述了类似的故事。 25％的三角洲偏斜，它衡量了市场价格与拨打（买入）期权相比的价格（卖出）期权的方式，目前为7％。

When this metric rises above 6%, it typically indicates higher demand for hedging strategies, suggesting professional traders expect continued downward pressure. The current reading suggests a lack of conviction among these market participants.

当该指标上升到6％以上时，通常表明对对冲策略的需求更高，这表明专业交易者预计会继续向下压力。当前的阅读表明这些市场参与者缺乏信念。

From a technical perspective, ETH is positioned at a clear support zone between $1,700 and $1,900. This range has historically acted as a launch pad for recoveries.

从技术角度来看，ETH位于1,700美元至1,900美元之间的明确支持区。该系列历史上一直充当恢复的发射台。

Previous declines to this area have triggered strong price surges. One analyst points out that Ethereum is trading within a long-term macro price range between $1,700 and $4,500.

以前对该地区的下降引发了巨大的价格飙升。一位分析师指出，以太坊的长期宏观价格范围内的交易范围在1,700美元至4,500美元之间。

Despite underperforming compared to Solana during this bull market, ETH has still doubled from its 2022 low. This performance surpasses that of most other altcoins.

尽管在这个牛市中，与索拉纳相比表现不佳，但ETH的表现仍比其2022年的低点增加了一倍。这种性能超过了大多数其他山寨币。

The sentiment around Ethereum has reached extreme lows. According to one analyst, the current market sentiment score shows Ethereum has hit rock bottom at 14, signaling extreme fear and uncertainty.

以太坊的情绪达到了极高的低点。根据一位分析师的说法，当前的市场情绪得分表明以太坊已在14岁时达到岩石底部，这表明了极端的恐惧和不确定性。

Historical data suggests that when ETH reaches similar sentiment lows, as it did in late 2017 and 2021, the cryptocurrency often experiences a subsequent rally to new all-time highs.

历史数据表明，当ETH达到类似的情感低点时，就像在2017年底和2021年一样，加密货币经常会经历随后的新历史高潮集。

Short-term traders appear heavily positioned for further downside. Data from on-chain analytics firm Coinglass reveals that traders betting on the short side are currently over-leveraged at $1,925, having built $391 million worth of short positions at this level.

短期交易者显得很大程度上是不利的。链分析公司Coinglass的数据表明，交易者在短侧的赌注目前的杠杆作用为1,925美元，在此级别上建立了价值3.91亿美元的短职位。

Meanwhile, traders betting on price increases have built only $120 million worth of long positions at $1,855. This imbalance clearly indicates that bears currently dominate the market.

同时，贸易商押注价格上涨仅建立了价值1.2亿美元的长头寸，$ 1,855。这种不平衡清楚地表明，熊当前在市场上占主导地位。

Ethereum faces several fundamental challenges. Some analysts argue that the sharp decline in network activity is the primary reason for ETH’s reduced appeal.

以太坊面临几个基本挑战。一些分析人士认为，网络活动的急剧下降是ETH吸引力下降的主要原因。

Others suggest that the shift toward layer-2 scalability solutions has significantly diminished the potential of base chain fees. With validators requiring compensation, the lack of capital inflow may require more ETH issuance, potentially affecting net returns from native staking.

其他人则认为向2层可伸缩性解决方案的转变显着降低了基本链费用的潜力。由于需要赔偿的验证者，缺乏资本流入可能需要更多的ETH发行，从而可能影响本地积分的净回报。

The competition from other blockchains also puts pressure on Ethereum. Networks like BNB Chain and Solana continue to gain traction, while specialized networks like Hyperliquid and Berachain target specific use cases.

来自其他区块链的竞争也给以太坊施加了压力。 BNB链和Solana等网络继续获得吸引力，而专门的网络（例如Hyperliquid and Berachain和Berachain）的特定用例。

The migration of successful decentralized applications (DApps) away from Ethereum presents another challenge. For instance, Ethena, a synthetic dollar protocol currently holding $5.3 billion in total value locked (TVL), is transferring to its own layer-1 blockchain after raising $100 million in December 2024.

成功的分散应用程序（DAPP）远离以太坊的迁移提出了另一个挑战。例如，目前持有53亿美元总价值锁定（TVL）的合成美元协议Ethena将在2024年12月筹集1亿美元后转移到其自己的1层区块链。

Despite these challenges, Ethereum has an important protocol update approaching. The Pectra upgrade, scheduled for the coming weeks, could provide practical benefits in terms of base layer fees and overall usability.

尽管有这些挑战，以太坊仍在进行重要的协议更新接近。 Pectra升级计划在未来几周内进行，可以在基本费用和总体可用性方面提供实际收益。

Analysts suggest that if ETH can manage to reclaim the $2,100 level, the cryptocurrency could move rapidly toward $4,000 in just a few months.

分析师建议，如果ETH可以设法收回2,100美元的水平，那么几个月内，加密货币可能会迅速转移到4,000美元。

The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision in mid-April may also provide renewed bullish momentum that could benefit Ethereum’s price trajectory.

即将在4月中旬即将到来的美联储货币政策决定也可能会提供新的看涨势头，这可能会使以太坊的价格轨迹受益。

At press time, Ethereum is trading at $1,870, with trading volume jumping by 50% over the past 24 hours. This increased participation from traders and investors compared to the previous day suggests heightened market interest at current price levels.

发稿时，以太坊的交易价格为1,870美元，在过去的24小时内，交易量增长了50％。与前一天相比，交易者和投资者的参与增加表明，当前价格水平的市场兴趣提高。