XRP（XRP）自一月份達到多年高高的$ 3.40以來，已經損失了40％以上

過去75-90％XRP崩潰之前的“拒絕”又回來了

The price of XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has lost more than 40% since hitting a multi-year high near $3.40 in January, and onchain data suggests the downtrend could deepen in the weeks ahead.

XRP（加密：XRP）的價格自一月份達到了多年高的3.40美元以來，損失了40％以上，OnChain數據表明，下降趨勢可能會在未來幾週內加深。

“Denial” preceding past 75-90% XRP crashes is back

過去75-90％XRP崩潰之前的“拒絕”又回來了

XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode suggests that the token may be heading for another extended downturn.

XRP的淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）數據來自GlassNode，這表明令牌可能正在前往另一個擴展的低迷。

The metric, which measures the aggregate unrealized gains or losses of XRP holders, has historically served as a reliable barometer of potential trend reversals. In past market cycles, NUPL has typically peaked in the so-called “euphoria” zone just before major price tops.

該指標衡量了XRP持有人的總未實現的收益或損失，歷史上一直是潛在趨勢逆轉的可靠晴雨表。在過去的市場週期中，NUPL通常在主要價格上漲之前在所謂的“ Euphoria”區中達到頂峰。

In 2018, XRP soared above $3.00 as signaled by extreme optimism in the NUPL zone, only to collapse 90% to below $0.30 as sentiment deteriorated through “denial” and into “capitulation.”

在2018年，XRP在NUPL區的極端樂觀信號中飆升至3.00美元以上，只有90％倒閉至低於0.30美元，因為情緒通過“拒絕”和“投降”降低了。

XRP NUPL historical performance chart. Source: Glassnode

XRP NUPL歷史表現圖。來源：玻璃節

A similar pattern played out in 2021 when XRP hit $1.96 before sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a sharp shift from euphoria to fear.

當XRP達到1.96美元之前，在2021年播放了類似的模式，然後在從欣快感到恐懼的急劇轉變中滑行75％至0.50美元。

As of March 2025, XRP’s PLCV has once again entered the “denial” zone, with the price trading around $2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern holds, XRP could face further downsides akin to the bear markets in 2018 and 2021.

截至2025年3月，XRP的PLCV再次進入“拒絕”區，在強烈的集會之後，價格交易約為2.50美元。如果這種模式成立，XRP可能會在2018年和2021年面臨類似於熊市的進一步弊端。

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP/USD每週價格圖表。資料來源：TradingView

XRP is now facing similar risks, trading sideways between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in just two months.

XRP現在面臨著類似的風險，在短短兩個月內舉行了585％的集會上，側面交易在1.80美元至3.40美元之間。

The rally accelerated after pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election, while speculation grew around Ripple’s potential victory in its SEC lawsuit and the possible approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025.

在親聯合候選人唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）贏得了美國總統大選之後的集會加速，而猜測則圍繞著Ripple在SEC訴訟中的潛在勝利以及2025年獲得XRP ETF的可能認可。

Related: SEC dropping XRP case was ‘priced in’ since Trump’s election: Analysts

相關：自特朗普當選以來，SEC刪除XRP案件是“定價”的：分析師

As a result of these supportive fundamentals, some traders said that XRP’s ongoing consolidation may eventually lead to a breakout. That includes market analyst Stellar Babe, who anticipates that XRP’s price will gain 450%.

由於這些支持性的基本面，一些交易者表示，XRP的持續合併最終可能導致突破。這包括市場分析師Stellar Babe，他預計XRP的價格將會上漲450％。

Technical fractal suggests XRP is topping out

技術分形表明XRP升高

XRP’s weekly chart suggests that a bearish fractal from 2021 may be unfolding again.

XRP的每週圖表表明，從2021年開始的看跌分形可能會再次展開。

In both 2021 and 2025, the XRP price formed a local high while the RSI printed a lower high, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.

在2021年和2025年，XRP價格均形成了局部高位，而RSI則印刷了較低的高，發出的看跌差異並削弱上空動量。

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP/USD每週價格圖表。資料來源：TradingView

Back in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke below the 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential moving average (EMA) supports.

早在2021年，這種差異就在85.50％的拋售之前打破了50週（紅波）和200週（藍波）指數移動平均線（EMA）支持的。

In 2025, XRP has shown similar RSI divergence, followed by a 40%-plus decline from its recent highs. It now risks an extended correction toward the 50-week EMA at around $1.58, down about 21.6% from the current price levels by June.

在2025年，XRP表現出相似的RSI差異，其次是與最近的高點相比下降了40％。現在，它有可能對50週的EMA進行延長的更正，約為1.58美元，比目前的價格水平下降了約21.6％。

If the correction deepens and breaks below the 50-week EMA support, history suggests that XRP could slide further toward the 200-week EMA around $0.87, or about 60% from the current price levels.

如果校正加深並突破了50週的EMA支持，歷史表明，XRP可以進一步滑入200週的EMA左右，約為0.87美元，距目前的價格水平約為60％。