XRP（XRP）自一月份达到多年高高的$ 3.40以来，已经损失了40％以上

过去75-90％XRP崩溃之前的“拒绝”又回来了

The price of XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has lost more than 40% since hitting a multi-year high near $3.40 in January, and onchain data suggests the downtrend could deepen in the weeks ahead.

XRP（加密：XRP）的价格自一月份达到了多年高的3.40美元以来，损失了40％以上，OnChain数据表明，下降趋势可能会在未来几周内加深。

“Denial” preceding past 75-90% XRP crashes is back

过去75-90％XRP崩溃之前的“拒绝”又回来了

XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode suggests that the token may be heading for another extended downturn.

XRP的净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）数据来自GlassNode，这表明令牌可能正在前往另一个扩展的低迷。

The metric, which measures the aggregate unrealized gains or losses of XRP holders, has historically served as a reliable barometer of potential trend reversals. In past market cycles, NUPL has typically peaked in the so-called “euphoria” zone just before major price tops.

该指标衡量了XRP持有人的总未实现的收益或损失，历史上一直是潜在趋势逆转的可靠晴雨表。在过去的市场周期中，NUPL通常在主要价格上涨之前在所谓的“ Euphoria”区中达到顶峰。

In 2018, XRP soared above $3.00 as signaled by extreme optimism in the NUPL zone, only to collapse 90% to below $0.30 as sentiment deteriorated through “denial” and into “capitulation.”

在2018年，XRP在NUPL区的极端乐观信号中飙升至3.00美元以上，只有90％倒闭至低于0.30美元，因为情绪通过“拒绝”和“投降”降低了。

XRP NUPL historical performance chart. Source: Glassnode

XRP NUPL历史表现图。来源：玻璃节

A similar pattern played out in 2021 when XRP hit $1.96 before sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a sharp shift from euphoria to fear.

当XRP达到1.96美元之前，在2021年播放了类似的模式，然后在从欣快感到恐惧的急剧转变中滑行75％至0.50美元。

As of March 2025, XRP’s PLCV has once again entered the “denial” zone, with the price trading around $2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern holds, XRP could face further downsides akin to the bear markets in 2018 and 2021.

截至2025年3月，XRP的PLCV再次进入“拒绝”区，在强烈的集会之后，价格交易约为2.50美元。如果这种模式成立，XRP可能会在2018年和2021年面临类似于熊市的进一步弊端。

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP/USD每周价格图表。资料来源：TradingView

XRP is now facing similar risks, trading sideways between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in just two months.

XRP现在面临着类似的风险，在短短两个月内举行了585％的集会上，侧面交易在1.80美元至3.40美元之间。

The rally accelerated after pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election, while speculation grew around Ripple’s potential victory in its SEC lawsuit and the possible approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025.

在亲联合候选人唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）赢得了美国总统大选之后的集会加速，而猜测则围绕着Ripple在SEC诉讼中的潜在胜利以及2025年获得XRP ETF的可能认可。

Related: SEC dropping XRP case was ‘priced in’ since Trump’s election: Analysts

相关：自特朗普当选以来，SEC删除XRP案件是“定价”的：分析师

As a result of these supportive fundamentals, some traders said that XRP’s ongoing consolidation may eventually lead to a breakout. That includes market analyst Stellar Babe, who anticipates that XRP’s price will gain 450%.

由于这些支持性的基本面，一些交易者表示，XRP的持续合并最终可能导致突破。这包括市场分析师Stellar Babe，他预计XRP的价格将会上涨450％。

Technical fractal suggests XRP is topping out

技术分形表明XRP升高

XRP’s weekly chart suggests that a bearish fractal from 2021 may be unfolding again.

XRP的每周图表表明，从2021年开始的看跌分形可能会再次展开。

In both 2021 and 2025, the XRP price formed a local high while the RSI printed a lower high, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.

在2021年和2025年，XRP价格均形成了局部高位，而RSI则印刷了较低的高，发出的看跌差异并削弱上空动量。

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP/USD每周价格图表。资料来源：TradingView

Back in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke below the 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential moving average (EMA) supports.

早在2021年，这种差异就在85.50％的抛售之前打破了50周（红波）和200周（蓝波）指数移动平均线（EMA）支持的。

In 2025, XRP has shown similar RSI divergence, followed by a 40%-plus decline from its recent highs. It now risks an extended correction toward the 50-week EMA at around $1.58, down about 21.6% from the current price levels by June.

在2025年，XRP表现出相似的RSI差异，其次是与最近的高点相比下降了40％。现在，它有可能对50周的EMA进行延长的更正，约为1.58美元，比目前的价格水平下降了约21.6％。

If the correction deepens and breaks below the 50-week EMA support, history suggests that XRP could slide further toward the 200-week EMA around $0.87, or about 60% from the current price levels.

如果校正加深并突破了50周的EMA支持，历史表明，XRP可以进一步滑入200周的EMA左右，约为0.87美元，距目前的价格水平约为60％。