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自 2015 年首次亮相以來,以太坊經歷了一段非凡的旅程,當時其交易價格僅為 0.42 美元。如今,其價值已令人難以置信地飆升了 621,600%
When Ethereum debuted in 2015, it traded at a mere $0.42. Today, thanks to a remarkable 621,600% surge, it ranks as the second-most valuable cryptocurrency globally, boasting a market capitalization of $310 billion, as reported by Brave New Coin’s Ethereum Liquid Index.
當以太坊於 2015 年首次亮相時,其交易價格僅為 0.42 美元。如今,根據 Brave New Coin 的以太幣流動性指數,它的市值飆升了 621,600%,成為全球第二大最有價值的加密貨幣,市值達到 3,100 億美元。
But what does the future hold for Ethereum? While replicating its past success may seem unlikely, recent developments suggest there might be far more in store for the cryptocurrency giant than meets the eye.
但以太坊的未來會是怎樣?雖然複製過去的成功似乎不太可能,但最近的事態發展表明,這家加密貨幣巨頭的未來可能遠比表面上看到的要多。
Over the last decade, Ethereum has cemented itself as a foundational pillar in the cryptocurrency space. A major step forward came with the introduction of Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July. These ETFs make it easier for both retail and institutional investors to invest in Ethereum, treating it much like a technology stock.
在過去的十年中,以太坊鞏固了自己作為加密貨幣領域基礎支柱的地位。 7 月以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出,向前邁出了一大步。這些 ETF 讓散戶和機構投資人更容易投資以太坊,將其視為科技股。
Already, more than $2 billion has been funneled into these funds, demonstrating growing confidence in Ethereum’s continued expansion. Still, the primary question remains: What milestones must Ethereum hit to achieve widespread adoption?
目前已有超過 20 億美元注入這些基金,顯示人們對以太坊持續擴張的信心不斷增強。儘管如此,主要問題仍然是:以太坊必須達到哪些里程碑才能廣泛採用?
The Challenge of Mainstream Adoption
主流採用的挑戰
For Ethereum to realize its full potential, it must evolve beyond being a speculative investment. While it dominates fields like decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Ethereum has yet to become a regular part of everyday life. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, frequently underscores this challenge.
為了充分發揮以太坊的潛力,它必須超越投機投資的範疇。儘管以太坊在去中心化金融(DeFi)、遊戲和不可替代代幣(NFT)等領域佔據主導地位,但它尚未成為日常生活的常規部分。以太坊聯合創始人 Vitalik Buterin 經常強調這項挑戰。
Speaking at the Token2049 crypto event in Singapore, Buterin acknowledged that Ethereum still faces issues with high transaction costs and a less-than-ideal user experience. He pointed out that many Ethereum applications feel unfinished, often resembling early-stage experimental projects rather than fully developed, user-friendly solutions.
Buterin 在新加坡舉行的 Token2049 加密貨幣活動上發表講話時承認,以太坊仍然面臨交易成本高和用戶體驗不太理想的問題。他指出,許多以太坊應用程式感覺尚未完成,通常類似於早期實驗項目,而不是完全開發的、用戶友好的解決方案。
If Ethereum overcomes these obstacles, its value could rise sharply. The platform’s ecosystem is extensive, with diverse sectors such as DeFi, NFTs, and gaming operating like individual business units. Together, the success of these areas could drive Ethereum’s overall growth. For example, VanEck, an investment firm, forecasts Ethereum’s price could surge to $22,000 by 2030, a substantial increase from its current value of approximately $2,600.
如果以太坊克服這些障礙,其價值可能會大幅上漲。該平台的生態系統非常廣泛,擁有 DeFi、NFT 和遊戲等多個領域,像獨立的業務部門一樣運作。這些領域的成功可以共同推動以太坊的整體成長。例如,投資公司 VanEck 預測,到 2030 年,以太坊的價格可能會飆升至 22,000 美元,較目前約 2,600 美元的價值大幅上漲。
Ethereum’s Dominance in DeFi
以太坊在 DeFi 領域的主導地位
One of the main forces driving Ethereum’s value is decentralized finance (DeFi). Ethereum currently holds more than half of the $100 billion DeFi market, making it the leading platform for decentralized financial services. Many investors view DeFi as the foundation for Ethereum’s future growth. VanEck’s $22,000 price forecast for Ethereum hinges on the assumption that it will continue to dominate this fast-expanding sector.
推動以太坊價值的主要力量之一是去中心化金融(DeFi)。以太坊目前佔據了 1000 億美元 DeFi 市場的一半以上,使其成為去中心化金融服務的領先平台。許多投資者將 DeFi 視為以太坊未來成長的基礎。 VanEck 對以太坊 22,000 美元的價格預測取決於以太坊將繼續主導這個快速擴張領域的假設。
If Ethereum captures at least 50% of the estimated $5 trillion market, its market capitalization could grow by trillions of dollars. To compare, Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, currently has a market cap of around $1.2 trillion. However, Ethereum faces challenges on its path to such success, as even its creator, Vitalik Buterin, has expressed doubts about some aspects of DeFi.
如果以太坊佔領了預計 5 兆美元市場的至少 50%,其市值可能會成長數兆美元。相比之下,全球最大的加密貨幣比特幣目前的市值約為 1.2 兆美元。然而,以太坊在如此成功的道路上面臨挑戰,甚至其創始人 Vitalik Buterin 也對 DeFi 的某些方面表示了懷疑。
Buterin has recently voiced concerns about DeFi’s future. He likened DeFi to an ouroboros, a serpent devouring its own tail, criticizing the space for focusing too much on yield chasing rather than true innovation. According to Buterin, this behavior mirrors traditional finance’s pitfalls, where chasing higher returns often leads to excessive risks.
Buterin 最近表達了對 DeFi 未來的擔憂。他將 DeFi 比作銜尾蛇,一條吞噬自己尾巴的蛇,批評該領域過於專注於收益追逐而不是真正的創新。 Buterin 認為,這種行為反映了傳統金融的陷阱,即追求更高的回報往往會導致過度的風險。
Ethereum’s Future: More Than Just DeFi?
以太坊的未來:不只是 DeFi?
Ethereum must go beyond decentralized finance (DeFi) to truly rise to new levels. The platform must become more affordable, faster, and easier to use to appeal to a broader audience. Its future likely depends on expanding its range of applications.
以太坊必須超越去中心化金融(DeFi)才能真正上升到新的境界。該平台必須變得更實惠、更快速、更易於使用,才能吸引更廣泛的受眾。它的未來可能取決於其應用範圍的擴大。
However, DeFi has gained the interest of financial institutions. Ethereum needs to engage everyday people by offering blockchain solutions that are practical in their daily lives. Decentralized identity and other groundbreaking technologies could be the next step forward.
然而,DeFi 已經引起了金融機構的興趣。以太坊需要透過提供在日常生活中實用的區塊鏈解決方案來吸引人們。去中心化身分和其他突破性技術可能是下一步的發展。
If Ethereum successfully transforms, the potential outcomes are vast. It could secure its position as the leading blockchain platform and even surpass Bitcoin in market value, an event often referred to as “the flipping.” Despite years of speculation, this shift will remain out of reach until Ethereum overcomes its current hurdles.
如果以太坊成功轉型,潛在的結果是巨大的。它可以鞏固其作為領先區塊鏈平台的地位,甚至在市值上超越比特幣,這一事件通常被稱為「翻轉」。儘管經過多年的猜測,在以太坊克服當前的障礙之前,這種轉變仍然遙不可及。
Could Ethereum Overtake Bitcoin?
以太坊能否超越比特幣?
“The flipping” would shock traditional investors, but for longtime Ethereum supporters, it’s not entirely unexpected. With Bitcoin’s current market cap of $1.2 trillion, Ethereum would need to significantly increase in value to surpass its rival.
「翻轉」會讓傳統投資者感到震驚,但對於以太坊的長期支持者來說,這並不完全出乎意料。鑑於比特幣目前的市值為 1.2 兆美元,以太坊的價值需要大幅增加才能超越其競爭對手。
However, if Ethereum can solve its usability issues, continue dominating the DeFi space, and diversify into new areas, it might just have what it takes to dethrone Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptocurrency in the world.
然而,如果以太坊能夠解決其可用性問題,繼續主導 DeFi 領域,並多元化進入新領域,它可能就有能力取代比特幣成為世界上最有價值的加密貨幣。
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