儘管監管雲層密布，以太幣仍在飆升

儘管面臨 3,600 美元的阻力，但自 2 月以來，以太幣 (ETH) 仍大幅上漲 58.8%。美國 5 月即將推出的以太幣現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 決定對 ETH 的價格既有正面的影響，也有負面的影響。雖然對 KuCoin 的起訴引起了監管機構的擔憂，但它也可能改善以太坊 ETF 獲得批准的前景。以太坊期貨未平倉合約的成長顯示需求強勁，但將其僅歸因於機構投資者過於簡單化了。以太坊衍生品反映了溫和的樂觀情緒，資金利率顯示對槓桿多頭部位的需求增加。然而，選擇權市場顯示看漲期權和看跌期權之間的定價平衡，表明市場立場中立。

Ether Price Soars Despite Regulatory Uncertainty

儘管監管存在不確定性，以太幣價格仍飆升

Amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny, Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks. However, a closer examination reveals that ETH has outperformed its major rival, Bitcoin (BTC), with a notable 58.8% surge since February, despite lingering uncertainties surrounding the potential approval of a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.

在持續的監管審查中，市值第二大加密貨幣以太坊（ETH）最近幾週經歷了大幅波動。然而，仔細研究後發現，儘管圍繞美國現貨以太幣交易所交易基金(ETF) 的潛在批准仍存在不確定性，但ETH 的表現仍優於其主要競爭對手比特幣(BTC)，自2 月以來大幅上漲58.8% 。

Spot Ether ETF Decision in May: A Pivotal Moment

5 月以太幣現貨 ETF 決策：關鍵時刻

The looming decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the fate of a spot Ether ETF by May 25 is seen as a pivotal moment for ETH's price trajectory. While the crypto community anxiously awaits the verdict, the debate continues over the implications of recent regulatory actions, including the indictment of cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin by the U.S. Justice Department.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 即將於 5 月 25 日就現貨 ETH ETF 的命運作出決定，這被視為 ETH 價格走勢的關鍵時刻。儘管加密貨幣社群焦急地等待判決，但有關近期監管行動影響的爭論仍在繼續，其中包括美國司法部對加密貨幣交易所 KuCoin 的起訴。

KuCoin Indictment: A Mixed Bag for Ether

KuCoin起訴書：以太坊魚龍混雜

The KuCoin indictment, which charged the exchange with illegal trading activities, has drawn mixed reactions within the crypto industry. Some observers view it as a setback due to the potential for increased regulatory pressure. However, others argue that the indictment could inadvertently improve the chances of a spot Ether ETF approval.

KuCoin 的起訴書指控該交易所進行非法交易活動，在加密貨幣行業內引起了不同的反應。一些觀察家認為這是一次挫折，因為監管壓力可能會增加。然而，其他人則認為，起訴書可能會無意中提高以太坊 ETF 現貨獲得批准的機會。

CFTC's Stance on Ether: A Legal Tussle

CFTC 對以太幣的立場：一場法律糾紛

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) complaint against KuCoin notably identified Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin as "digital assets that are commodities," a designation that directly clashes with the SEC's long-held position that Ether may be classified as a security.

美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）對KuCoin 的投訴特別將比特幣、以太幣和萊特幣認定為“屬於商品的數位資產”，這一名稱與SEC 長期以來認為以太幣可能被歸類為證券的立場直接衝突。

Institutional Interest: A Positive Sign

機構興趣：正向訊號

Despite the regulatory uncertainties, the growth of the Ether futures market has been a positive development. Increased liquidity, particularly in the regulated Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) market, attracts hedge funds and large asset managers. The record-high open interest achieved on March 28 is a testament to this growing institutional interest.

儘管存在監管方面的不確定性，但以太坊期貨市場的成長一直是積極的。流動性的增加，尤其是在受監管的芝加哥商業交易所（CME）市場，吸引了對沖基金和大型資產管理公司。 3 月 28 日創下的歷史最高持倉量證明了機構興趣的不斷增長。

Futures Market Dynamics: A Balanced View

期貨市場動態：平衡的觀點

However, it is important to note that Binance, Bybit, and other major derivatives exchanges dominate the Ether futures market, with CME representing a relatively smaller portion of open interest. Thus, attributing the recent surge solely to institutional investor interest would be an oversimplification.

然而，值得注意的是，幣安、Bybit 和其他主要衍生性商品交易所主導以太坊期貨市場，而 CME 所佔未平倉合約的比例相對較小。因此，將最近的飆升僅歸因於機構投資者的興趣未免過於簡單化。

Perpetual Contracts: A Gauge of Demand

永續合約：需求衡量標準

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, include a rate that adjusts based on the demand imbalance for leverage. A positive funding rate indicates increased demand for bullish leverage positions, while a negative rate suggests a preference for bearish positions. The current funding rate for ETH, at 0.04%, indicates a moderate bullish sentiment.

永續合約，也稱為反向掉期，包括根據槓桿需求不平衡進行調整的利率。正的資金利率顯示對看漲槓桿頭寸的需求增加，而負利率顯示對看跌頭寸的偏好。 ETH 目前的融資利率為 0.04%，顯示溫和的看漲情緒。

Options Market: A Balanced Perspective

選擇權市場：平衡的視角

A more accurate gauge of professional traders' sentiment can be found in the Ether options market. The 25% delta skew metric, which measures the pricing differential between call and put options, currently shows balanced pricing. This suggests that the market is not overly bullish or bearish and aligns with a neutral market stance.

可以在以太坊選擇權市場中找到更準確的專業交易者情緒衡量標準。衡量看漲期權和看跌期權之間定價差異的 25% Delta 偏度指標目前顯示均衡定價。這顯示市場並未過度看漲或看跌，符合中性市場立場。

Conclusion

結論

While the regulatory landscape remains uncertain, Ether's recent performance indicates underlying strength. The upcoming spot ETF decision and the CFTC's stance on Ether's classification as a commodity will undoubtedly influence the price trajectory. However, the growth of the futures market and the moderate bullish sentiment in the derivatives market suggest that Ether is well-positioned for continued growth in the long term.

儘管監管環境仍不確定，但以太坊近期的表現表明了其潛在的實力。即將到來的現貨 ETF 決定以及美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 對以太幣歸類為商品的立場無疑將影響價格走勢。然而，期貨市場的成長和衍生性商品市場的溫和看漲情緒表明，以太坊處於長期持續成長的有利位置。