尽管监管云层密布，以太币仍在飙升

尽管面临 3,600 美元的阻力，但自 2 月份以来，以太坊 (ETH) 仍大幅上涨 58.8%。美国 5 月份即将推出的以太币现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 决定对 ETH 的价格既有积极的影响，也有消极的影响。虽然对 KuCoin 的起诉引起了监管机构的担忧，但它也可能改善以太坊 ETF 获得批准的前景。以太坊期货未平仓合约的增长表明需求强劲，但将其仅仅归因于机构投资者过于简单化了。以太坊衍生品反映了温和的乐观情绪，资金利率显示对杠杆多头头寸的需求增加。然而，期权市场表明看涨期权和看跌期权之间的定价平衡，表明市场立场中立。

Ether Price Soars Despite Regulatory Uncertainty

尽管监管存在不确定性，以太币价格仍飙升

Amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny, Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks. However, a closer examination reveals that ETH has outperformed its major rival, Bitcoin (BTC), with a notable 58.8% surge since February, despite lingering uncertainties surrounding the potential approval of a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.

在持续的监管审查中，市值第二大加密货币以太坊（ETH）最近几周经历了大幅波动。然而，仔细研究后发现，尽管围绕美国现货以太币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的潜在批准仍存在不确定性，但 ETH 的表现仍优于其主要竞争对手比特币 (BTC)，自 2 月份以来大幅上涨 58.8% 。

Spot Ether ETF Decision in May: A Pivotal Moment

5 月份以太币现货 ETF 决策：关键时刻

The looming decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the fate of a spot Ether ETF by May 25 is seen as a pivotal moment for ETH's price trajectory. While the crypto community anxiously awaits the verdict, the debate continues over the implications of recent regulatory actions, including the indictment of cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin by the U.S. Justice Department.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 即将于 5 月 25 日就现货 ETH ETF 的命运作出决定，这被视为 ETH 价格走势的关键时刻。尽管加密货币社区焦急地等待判决，但有关近期监管行动影响的争论仍在继续，其中包括美国司法部对加密货币交易所 KuCoin 的起诉。

KuCoin Indictment: A Mixed Bag for Ether

KuCoin起诉书：以太坊鱼龙混杂

The KuCoin indictment, which charged the exchange with illegal trading activities, has drawn mixed reactions within the crypto industry. Some observers view it as a setback due to the potential for increased regulatory pressure. However, others argue that the indictment could inadvertently improve the chances of a spot Ether ETF approval.

KuCoin 的起诉书指控该交易所进行非法交易活动，在加密货币行业内引起了不同的反应。一些观察家认为这是一次挫折，因为监管压力可能会增加。然而，其他人则认为，起诉书可能会无意中提高以太坊 ETF 现货获得批准的机会。

CFTC's Stance on Ether: A Legal Tussle

CFTC 对以太币的立场：一场法律纠纷

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) complaint against KuCoin notably identified Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin as "digital assets that are commodities," a designation that directly clashes with the SEC's long-held position that Ether may be classified as a security.

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）对 KuCoin 的投诉特别将比特币、以太币和莱特币认定为“属于商品的数字资产”，这一名称与 SEC 长期以来认为以太币可能被归类为证券的立场直接冲突。

Institutional Interest: A Positive Sign

机构兴趣：积极信号

Despite the regulatory uncertainties, the growth of the Ether futures market has been a positive development. Increased liquidity, particularly in the regulated Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) market, attracts hedge funds and large asset managers. The record-high open interest achieved on March 28 is a testament to this growing institutional interest.

尽管存在监管方面的不确定性，但以太坊期货市场的增长一直是积极的。流动性的增加，尤其是在受监管的芝加哥商业交易所（CME）市场，吸引了对冲基金和大型资产管理公司。 3 月 28 日创下的历史最高持仓量证明了机构兴趣的不断增长。

Futures Market Dynamics: A Balanced View

期货市场动态：平衡的观点

However, it is important to note that Binance, Bybit, and other major derivatives exchanges dominate the Ether futures market, with CME representing a relatively smaller portion of open interest. Thus, attributing the recent surge solely to institutional investor interest would be an oversimplification.

然而，值得注意的是，币安、Bybit 和其他主要衍生品交易所主导着以太坊期货市场，而 CME 所占未平仓合约的比例相对较小。因此，将最近的飙升仅仅归因于机构投资者的兴趣未免过于简单化。

Perpetual Contracts: A Gauge of Demand

永续合约：需求衡量标准

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, include a rate that adjusts based on the demand imbalance for leverage. A positive funding rate indicates increased demand for bullish leverage positions, while a negative rate suggests a preference for bearish positions. The current funding rate for ETH, at 0.04%, indicates a moderate bullish sentiment.

永续合约，也称为反向掉期，包括根据杠杆需求不平衡进行调整的利率。正的资金利率表明对看涨杠杆头寸的需求增加，而负利率表明对看跌头寸的偏好。 ETH 目前的融资利率为 0.04%，表明温和的看涨情绪。

Options Market: A Balanced Perspective

期权市场：平衡的视角

A more accurate gauge of professional traders' sentiment can be found in the Ether options market. The 25% delta skew metric, which measures the pricing differential between call and put options, currently shows balanced pricing. This suggests that the market is not overly bullish or bearish and aligns with a neutral market stance.

可以在以太坊期权市场中找到更准确的专业交易者情绪衡量标准。衡量看涨期权和看跌期权之间定价差异的 25% Delta 偏度指标目前显示均衡定价。这表明市场并未过度看涨或看跌，符合中性市场立场。

Conclusion

结论

While the regulatory landscape remains uncertain, Ether's recent performance indicates underlying strength. The upcoming spot ETF decision and the CFTC's stance on Ether's classification as a commodity will undoubtedly influence the price trajectory. However, the growth of the futures market and the moderate bullish sentiment in the derivatives market suggest that Ether is well-positioned for continued growth in the long term.

尽管监管环境仍不确定，但以太坊近期的表现表明了其潜在的实力。即将到来的现货 ETF 决定以及美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 对以太币归类为商品的立场无疑将影响价格走势。然而，期货市场的增长和衍生品市场的温和看涨情绪表明，以太坊处于长期持续增长的有利位置。