ETH 鯨魚在頂部拋售，但新的資金流入表明反彈即將到來

ETH 價格預計將以看漲趨勢結束 2024 年的前 7 天。特別是自 12 月中旬以來價格自然回落後

After experiencing a bullish run during the first few days of 2024, ETH price encountered a setback on Tuesday with a flash crash that resulted in a loss of around 8.3%. Upon closer examination, the crash appears to be a liquidity shakedown.

在經歷了 2024 年頭幾天的牛市之後，ETH 價格在周二遭遇挫折，閃崩，導致下跌約 8.3%。經過更仔細的審視，這次崩盤似乎是流動性緊縮。

Despite the initial rally, the crash on Tuesday wiped out the gains achieved earlier in the week. The sharp pullback had all the makings of a liquidity shakedown.

儘管最初出現反彈，但週二的暴跌抹去了本週早些時候的漲幅。此次大幅回檔具備了流動性緊縮的所有因素。

For instance, whale activity showed outflows since late December and into the first week of January, even as the price moved up.

例如，自 12 月底到 1 月第一周，儘管價格上漲，鯨魚活動仍出現資金外流。

Before the rally, ETH price action showed some consolidation in the last week of December, indicating directional uncertainty.

在上漲之前，ETH 價格走勢在 12 月最後一周出現了一些盤整，顯示方向不確定。

However, the uptick that followed provided some conviction about the cryptocurrency’s direction. As a result, appetite for leverage created an opportunity for long liquidations.

然而，隨後的上漲讓人們對加密貨幣的方向有了一些信心。結果，對槓桿的興趣創造了多頭清算的機會。

The return of sell pressure led to $166.45 million in long liquidations over the last 2 days. Such liquidations are common, especially during periods characterized by excitement and a strong appetite for leverage.

過去兩天，拋售壓力的回歸導致多頭清算金額達 1.6645 億美元。這種清算很常見，尤其是在人們興奮和對槓桿有著強烈興趣的時期。

Unsurprisingly, Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio has been rising steadily over the last few months. It peaked at a new all-time high on Friday last week, which was quickly followed by a spike in long liquidations.

不出所料，以太坊的估計槓桿率在過去幾個月一直在穩步上升。上週週五觸及歷史新高，隨後多頭清算量激增。

Although ETH began the year with bullish momentum, it was the opposite for whales as they booked their profits.

儘管 ETH 年初呈現看漲勢頭，但鯨魚的情況卻恰恰相反，他們預訂了利潤。

This signaled a short-term outlook, which also increased the chances of a retracement. Outflows from whale addresses were seen in the form of a sharp dip in IntoTheBlock's large holder netflows indicator.

這標誌著短期前景，也增加了回檔的可能性。從鯨魚地址的流出表現為 IntoTheBlock 的大持有者淨流量指標急劇下降的形式。

However, the latest large holder inflow and outflow data shows that inflows were higher than outflows.

然而，最新的大股東流入和流出數據顯示，流入量高於流出量。

ETH inflows on 7 January peaked at 519,620 ETH, while outflows on the same day totaled 411,300 coins. This resulted in a net gain for the cryptocurrency, indicating higher demand and less sell pressure from the whale category at recent lows.

1 月 7 日，ETH 流入量達到高峰 519,620 ETH，而當天流出總量為 411,300 ETH。這導致加密貨幣出現淨收益，顯示需求增加，鯨魚類別在近期低點的拋售壓力減少。

Could this mean that ETH is finally set to rally again? The return of whale demand suggests that price might find support between $3032 and $3221.

這是否意味著 ETH 終於要再次反彈了？鯨魚需求的回歸表明價格可能會在 3032 美元至 3221 美元之間找到支撐。

A bounce-back from this range may not necessarily indicate the start of a major rally.

從該區間反彈並不一定意味著大幅反彈的開始。

Can ETH Price still rally above $10,000 in 2025?

2025 年 ETH 價格還能漲到 1 萬美元以上嗎？

Recent supply and demand characteristics point to a temporary return to short-term price swings. Nonetheless, the long-term outlook is still positive.

近期的供需特徵顯示價格將暫時回歸短期波動。儘管如此，長期前景仍然樂觀。

One of the main reasons for optimism is the upcoming shift to a pro-crypto administration in the U.S. This development is expected to have far-reaching implications in the crypto market, especially regarding regulations.

樂觀的主要原因之一是美國即將轉向支持加密貨幣的政府。

Another major development that could supercharge ETH adoption is on the horizon. The Ethereum network is set to undergo a major upgrade called Pectra.

另一項可能促進 ETH 採用的重大進展即將出現。以太坊網路將進行名為 Pectra 的重大升級。

Early details of the Pectra upgrade reveal that there will be improvements to staking, including increasing the validator staking cap to 2048 ETH from the current 32 ETH. The enhancements will also extend to scalability and staking, with plans to include staking rewards to boost participation. These changes could potentially enhance ETH's attractiveness in the long run.

Pectra 升級的早期細節顯示，質押方面將會有所改進，包括將驗證者質押上限從目前的 32 ETH 增加到 2048 ETH。這些增強功能還將擴展到可擴展性和質押，並計劃包括質押獎勵以提高參與度。從長遠來看，這些變化可能會增強 ETH 的吸引力。