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由於 CPI 數據高於預期,比特幣價格在華爾街開盤下跌 0.5%。核心CPI較2月上漲0.4%,較去年同期上漲3.8%,超出經濟學家的預期。目前,聯準會 6 月降息的可能性較小,市場分析師押注 5 月和 6 月利率將保持穩定,並可能在 9 月首次降息。
Economic Headwinds Hinder Bitcoin's Ascent, Dampening Investor Sentiment
經濟逆風阻礙了比特幣的上漲,削弱了投資者的情緒
On April 10th, the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) report sent shockwaves through the financial markets, triggering a downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) prices. The report indicated unexpectedly high inflation levels, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve's previously anticipated rate cut in June.
4月10日,美國消費者物價指數(CPI)報告的發布震動金融市場,引發比特幣(BTC)價格下跌。該報告顯示通膨水準出乎意料地高,使人們對聯準會先前預期的六月降息產生懷疑。
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed a sharp decline in BTC prices, with a 2.5% drop from $69,115 at the Wall Street open to an intraday low of $67,463 on Coinbase. This fluctuation occurred in direct response to the CPI data.
Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數據顯示,BTC 價格大幅下跌,從華爾街開盤的 69,115 美元跌至 Coinbase 盤中低點 67,463 美元,跌幅為 2.5%。這種波動是對 CPI 數據的直接反應。
March's CPI figures exceeded economists' forecasts, indicating a concerning rise in inflationary pressures. Month-over-month inflation climbed by 0.4%, while year-over-year inflation reached 3.5%, surpassing estimates of 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively.
3月份的CPI數據超出了經濟學家的預期,顯示通膨壓力令人擔憂。通膨率較上季上升0.4%,年通膨率達3.5%,分別超過預期的0.3%和3.4%。
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also exceeded expectations, rising by 0.4% from February and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to estimates of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Notably, CPI for all items increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in March.
剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心CPI也超出預期,較2月份上漲0.4%,較去年同期上漲3.8%,而預期分別為0.3%和3.7%。值得注意的是,3月所有專案CPI年率上漲3.2%。
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provided detailed insights into the specific components driving the CPI increase, highlighting a surge in shelter and gasoline prices. Combined, these two factors contributed to over half of the monthly increase. The energy index rose 1.1%, while the food index saw a modest 0.1% increase.
美國勞工統計局提供了有關推動消費者物價指數上漲的具體因素的詳細見解,強調了住房和汽油價格的飆升。這兩個因素加起來貢獻了超過一半的月增長。能源指數上漲1.1%,食品指數小漲0.1%。
Fed Rate Cut Prospects Dwindle
聯準會降息前景黯淡
The CPI data immediately sparked debates among market participants regarding the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the near future. The timeline for a potential rate cut has now shifted from June to later in the year.
CPI數據立即引發市場參與者關於聯準會近期降息可能性的爭論。潛在降息的時間表現已從六月推遲到今年晚些時候。
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders now assign only a 20.6% probability to a June rate cut, significantly lower than the 45.9% odds they had placed before the CPI report. This suggests that market analysts anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain steady rates in May and June, with the possibility of a rate cut being pushed back to September.
根據 CME 的 FedWatch 工具,交易員目前認為 6 月降息的可能性僅為 20.6%,大大低於他們在 CPI 報告之前設定的 45.9% 的可能性。這顯示市場分析師預計聯準會將在5月和6月維持利率穩定,降息的可能性可能延後到9月。
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow, Tempering Short-Term Outlook
比特幣 ETF 資金流入緩慢,短期前景緩和
Concurrently with the CPI-induced price decline, the tapering off of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has dampened investor sentiment towards Bitcoin.
在消費者物價指數引發價格下跌的同時,流入現貨比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)的資金逐漸減少,削弱了投資者對比特幣的情緒。
On April 9th, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) witnessed outflows totaling approximately $154.9 million, based on data compiled by BitMEX Research. Spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively experienced net outflows of $18.7 million, marking the second consecutive day of negative inflows.
根據 BitMEX Research 彙編的數據,4 月 9 日,灰階比特幣信託基金 (GBTC) 的資金外流總額約為 1.549 億美元。現貨比特幣 ETF 總計淨流出 1,870 萬美元,連續第二天出現負流入。
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted the highest inflow of $128.7 million. Bitwise's ETF (BITB) and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with inflows of over $3.8 million and $3 million, respectively. No other ETFs reported capital inflows on April 10th.
貝萊德的 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT) 吸引了最高的資金流入,達 1.287 億美元。 Bitwise 的 ETF (BITB) 和 Fidelity 的 Wise Origin 比特幣基金 (FBTC) 緊隨其後,資金流入分別超過 380 萬美元和 300 萬美元。 4 月 10 日沒有其他 ETF 報告資金流入。
The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reflects a decline in investors' appetite for these investment products as caution grips the market. Nonetheless, anticipation remains high for a potential surge in BTC prices following the impending Bitcoin halving event, which is less than ten days away.
比特幣 ETF 現貨流入放緩反映出,由於市場謹慎,投資者對這些投資產品的興趣下降。儘管如此,距離即將到來的比特幣減半事件(距離減半還有不到十天),人們對比特幣價格可能飆升的預期仍然很高。
Vijay Pravin Maharajan, the founder and CEO of bitsCrunch, emphasizes the significance of the upcoming halving, stating that it "could not only propel BTC to new all-time highs but also positively impact various other assets." He further expresses optimism that investors can expect a rekindling of the bull market in the latter half of Q2.
BitsCrunch 創辦人兼執行長 Vijay Pravin Maharajan 強調了即將到來的減半的重要性,並表示它「不僅可以推動 BTC 創下歷史新高,還可以對各種其他資產產生積極影響」。他進一步表示樂觀,投資者預計第二季後半段多頭牛市將重燃。
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Investing involves risks, and readers should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
免責聲明:本文僅供參考,不構成投資建議或建議。投資涉及風險,讀者在做出投資決定之前應自行進行盡職調查。
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