在低於$ 2,500的價格下降後，ETH重新獲得看漲勢頭需要發生什麼？

Ether（ETH）價格在2月24日下跌低於2,600美元，此後一直在努力維持有意義的恢復。

Ether (ETH) price dropped below $2,600 on Feb. 24 and has since struggled to sustain a meaningful recovery. The latest correction toward the $2,000 level triggered over $918 million in leveraged long (bull) liquidations in ETH futures within 15 days, according to CoinGlass data.

Ether（ETH）價格在2月24日下跌低於2,600美元，此後一直在努力維持有意義的恢復。根據Coinglass的數據，對2,000美元級別的最新糾正介紹了超過9.18億美元的槓桿（Bull）Long（Bull）在ETH期貨中的清算。

Traders are now questioning what needs to happen for ETH to break above $2,500.

交易者現在正在質疑ETH在2500美元以上中斷需要發生的事情。

Ether/USD (left) vs. total altcoin market cap (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Ether/USD（左）與總Altcoin市值（右）。資料來源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

The cryptocurrency has also underperformed the altcoin market by 10% during this period, as shown in the chart above.

如上圖所示，在此期間，加密貨幣的表現也使Altcoin市場的表現不足10％。

More concerningly, this decline followed a memecoin frenzy that ultimately boosted Ethereum’s main competitor, Solana (SOL). This suggests that additional factors are hampering ETH’s price, and four major issues need to be addressed before Ether can reclaim a bull market.

更令人擔憂的是，這種下降遵循了一個紀念性瘋狂之後，最終促進了以太坊的主要競爭對手Solana（Solan）。這表明其他因素妨礙了ETH的價格，在以太幣可以收回牛市之前，需要解決四個主要問題。

Ethereum’s upgrades and increased competition

以太坊的升級和增加的競爭

For some, the upcoming Pectra upgrade on the Ethereum network falls short of what is needed to drive a meaningful turnaround, whether it lowers base-layer transaction fees or significantly enhances usability.

對於某些人來說，即將到來的以太坊網絡上的Pectra升級均未達到驅動有意義的周轉所需的內容，無論是降低基礎層交易費用還是顯著提高可用性。

Even if the changes do improve the user experience, analysts argue that Ethereum still lacks interoperability across different layer-2 solutions, both in terms of liquidity and user accessibility.

即使更改確實改善了用戶體驗，分析師也認為，在流動性和用戶可訪問性方面，以太坊仍然缺乏在不同層的第2層解決方案上的互操作性。

Recent reports of empty blocks on the Ethereum testnet have also added to risk perception at a time when investors were already skeptical. Regardless of whether this issue is unrelated to the upcoming upgrade or easily fixable, some traders worry that any potential delay could be perceived negatively by the market.

在投資者已經持懷疑態度的時候，關於以太坊測試網絡上空塊的最新報導也增加了風險感知。不管這個問題與即將到來的升級或易於解決的問題無關，一些交易者都擔心市場可能會對任何潛在的延誤造成負面看法。

In essence, fear remains the dominant sentiment, and for this to change, several pressing issues must be resolved.

從本質上講，恐懼仍然是主導的情緒，為了改變這一點，必須解決一些緊迫的問題。

Critics argue that part of ETH investors’ disappointment stems from the rise of indirect competitors, such as the modular layer-1 Berachain, which is focusing on integrating liquidity and governance for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

批評家認為，ETH投資者的一部分失望源於間接競爭者的興起，例如模塊化層貝拉辛（Berachain），該競爭對手的重點是將流動性和治理分散為分散融資（DEFI）應用。

7-day protocol fees ranking, USD. Source: DefiLlama

7天協議費用排名，美元。資料來源：Defillama

Berachain has managed to capture over $3 billion in deposits, as measured by total value locked (TVL) on DefiLlama.

貝拉辛（Berachain）設法捕獲了超過30億美元的存款，這是由Defillama上的總價值鎖定（TVL）衡量的。

Similarly, Hyperliquid, a perpetual futures application hosted on its own blockchain, has surpassed $2.8 billion in open interest, outpacing competitors on the Ethereum network. In many ways, competition is growing beyond the traditional model.

同樣，在自己的區塊鏈上託管的永久性期貨應用程序Hyproliquid已超過28億美元的開放利息，超過了以太坊網絡上的競爭對手。在許多方面，競爭超越了傳統模型。

For ETH's price to regain bullish momentum, traders will need to see reassurance that the Ethereum network offers practical and clear advantages for its projects and users. Ultimately, Ethereum's focus on decentralization and incremental improvements—whether justified or not—could be limiting demand compared to its competition.

為了使ETH重新獲得看漲勢頭的價格，交易者將需要保證以太坊網絡為其項目和用戶提供了實用，清晰的優勢。最終，與競爭相比，以太坊對權力下放和逐步改進的關注（無論是否合理）都可能限制需求。

Weak onchain activity and institutional demand

無鏈活動和機構需求

The lack of demand from institutional investors is clear from the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, which were negative in nine of the last 10 trading days, resulting in $406 million in net withdrawals.

從現貨交易所買賣基金（ETF）的流量中可以明顯看出機構投資者的需求不足，在過去的10個交易日中的9個中，這是負面的，導致淨撤資淨額為4.06億美元。

Some analysts suggested that demand could surge following the eventual approval of native staking on Ethereum ETFs, but this theory seems less likely now, given that the ETH supply is increasing at 0.7% annually.

一些分析人士認為，在以太坊ETF上最終批准的本地佔用後，需求可能會激增，但是由於ETH供應每年增加0.7％，現在這種理論似乎不太可能。

Lower demand for blockchain processing has reduced the burn-fee mechanism, causing Ether to become inflationary. As a result, the adjusted native staking reward is now below 2.5%, while deposits in stablecoins yield up to 4.5% in most DeFi projects.

降低對區塊鏈處理的需求減少了燃燒費用機制，導致以太成為通貨膨脹。結果，調整後的本機放訂獎勵現在低於2.5％，而在大多數FEFI項目中，穩定的存款獎勵產量高達4.5％。

Ultimately, the eventual inclusion of staking in spot ETFs is unlikely to be a game-changer for institutional demand.

最終，最終將賭注包括在現貨ETF中是不可能成為機構需求的遊戲規則改變者。

Related: DeFi TVL drops by $45B, erasing gains since Trump election

相關：Defi TVL下跌$ 45B，自從特朗普當選以來就刪除了收益

Lastly, traders are concerned that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may approve a spot Solana ETF in 2025, creating direct competition for investors who currently only have access to Ether and Bitcoin (BTC) ETF products.

最後，交易者擔心美國證券交易委員會可能會在2025年批准現貨Solana ETF，這為目前僅訪問Ether和BTCOIN（BTC）ETF產品的投資者提供直接競爭。

Therefore, for ETH price to reach $2,500 and beyond, investors will need to see clearer evidence that Ethereum is offering sustainable advantages over its competitors, in addition to its first-mover advantage.

因此，要達到2500美元及以後的ETH價格，投資者還需要看到更清晰的證據，表明以太坊還具有比其競爭對手的可持續優勢，除了其第一步優勢。

In summary, the future of Ether depends on the Ethereum network upgrades, increased network usage, and a subsequent decline in supply, as well as less friction for layer-2 interoperability, ensuring that the entire ecosystem benefits from its growth.

總而言之，以太醚的未來取決於以太坊網絡的升級，網絡使用的增加以及隨後的供應下降以及對2層互操作性的摩擦較小，從而確保整個生態系統從其增長中受益。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文是出於一般信息目的，不打算被視為法律或投資建議。這裡表達的觀點，思想和觀點是作者獨自一人，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和觀點。