唐納德·川普，加密貨幣的真正危險？

為 Solana 放棄比特幣的阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 並不是一個隨波逐流的人，他最新的警告也不是一個無關緊要的細節。

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is known for making bold predictions about the crypto market. This time, he’s warning that Donald Trump’s inauguration could spark a crypto market crash.

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 因對加密市場做出大膽預測而聞名。這次，他警告唐納德·川普的就職典禮可能會引發加密貨幣市場崩潰。

While many are expecting favorable political developments for crypto assets, Hayes seems to be swimming against the tide. His strategy? Reduce his short-term positions to return to lower prices in 2025.

儘管許多人預計加密資產會出現有利的政治發展，但海耶斯似乎正在逆流而上。他的策略？減少短期頭寸，以便在 2025 年恢復到較低的價格。

Donald Trump, the real threat to cryptos?

唐納德·川普，加密貨幣的真正威脅？

Arthur Hayes, the man who dropped Bitcoin for Solana, is not one to follow the crowd, and his latest warning is not to be overlooked. Donald Trump’s inauguration could shake the crypto market much more violently than expected. As everyone sees Trump as a potential champion of crypto, Hayes warns against setting expectations too high.

為 Solana 放棄比特幣的人 Arthur Hayes 並不是一個隨波逐流的人，他的最新警告也不容忽視。唐納德·川普的就職典禮可能會對加密貨幣市場產生比預期更劇烈的震動。由於每個人都將川普視為加密貨幣的潛在擁護者，海耶斯警告不要將期望設定得太高。

In a post titled “Trump Truth”, he predicts an immediate crash around January 20, 2025. The idea behind this brutal drop? A collective disappointment at the lack of concrete and rapid reforms in the crypto field.

在一篇題為「川普真相」的貼文中，他預測 2025 年 1 月 20 日左右將立即崩盤。人們對加密貨幣領域缺乏具體而迅速的改革感到集體失望。

« The market thinks that Trump and his allies will perform economic miracles overnight », says Hayes, but we must not forget that policies take time to implement.

海耶斯表示，“市場認為川普及其盟友將在一夜之間創造經濟奇蹟”，但我們絕不能忘記，政策的實施需要時間。

The president will have at best one year to fulfill his promises. This could provoke a violent reaction in the markets, pushing many investors to sell in panic.

總統最多只有一年的時間來兌現他的承諾。這可能會引發市場的劇烈反應，迫使許多投資者恐慌性拋售。

Until then, Hayes and his Maelstrom fund intend to lighten their positions to prepare for a strategic low-cost purchase, a strategy that reflects his short-term pessimism.

在此之前，海耶斯和他的Maelstrom基金打算減倉，為策略性低成本收購做準備，這項策略反映了他的短期悲觀情緒。

Hayes’ predictions for 2025

海耶斯對 2025 年的預測

Arthur Hayes, with his sharp market analysis, believes that the year 2025 will be the year of the great reversal for crypto, but not necessarily in the way enthusiastic investors expect. After a likely plunge at the beginning of the year, the expert predicts a “crack-up-boom” in the second half of 2025.

Arthur Hayes 以其敏銳的市場分析認為，2025 年將是加密貨幣大逆轉之年，但不一定是熱情投資者所期望的方式。在經歷了年初可能的暴跌之後，專家預測 2025 年下半年將出現「崩潰式繁榮」。

This is where the real question arises: how will the adoption of bitcoin and other cryptos evolve in such an uncertain political context?

這就是真正的問題出現的地方：在如此不確定的政治背景下，比特幣和其他加密貨幣的採用將如何發展？

The key to the reversal, according to Hayes, lies in investor psychology. Those who bought crypto during the euphoria of the 2023-2024 bull run may find themselves trapped in a selling spiral, while those who stayed out risk seeing the recovery slip through their fingers. Hayes makes no secret of his strategy:

海耶斯認為，逆轉的關鍵在於投資者的心理。那些在 2023 年至 2024 年牛市狂熱期間購買加密貨幣的人可能會發現自己陷入了拋售螺旋，而那些不觀望的人則面臨著復甦從指縫中溜走的風險。海耶斯毫不掩飾他的策略：

« If the market plunges after Trump’s inauguration, I will be there to buy at low prices, because there will definitely be a rebound at some point. »

« 如果川普就職後市場暴跌，我會低價買入，因為肯定會在某個時候反彈。 »

But beware, this is not a forecast of immediate gains. « There is a timing to respect », he warns, mentioning a slow re-evaluation of the crypto market in 2025.

但請注意，這並不是立即收益的預測。他警告說，“是時候尊重了”，並提到 2025 年將對加密市場進行緩慢的重新評估。

Let’s not forget that last November, Hayes already predicted that Donald Trump would not be the trigger for the next bitcoin bull run. According to him, it is China that will play a decisive role in the relaunch of crypto, while the Trump effect will only be a mirage.

我們不要忘記，去年 11 月，海耶斯就已經預測唐納德·川普不會成為下一次比特幣牛市的觸發者。他認為，中國將在加密貨幣的重新啟動中發揮決定性作用，而川普效應只會是海市蜃樓。

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

透過我們的「閱讀賺錢」計畫最大化您的 Cointribune 體驗！您閱讀的每一篇文章，均可賺取積分並獲得獨家獎勵。立即註冊並開始賺取福利。

The blockchain and crypto revolution is on the move! And the day its impacts will be felt on the most vulnerable economy in this World, against all odds, I will say that I had something to do with it

區塊鏈和加密貨幣革命正在進行中！當世界上最脆弱的經濟體感受到它的影響時，儘管困難重重，我會說我與它有關