唐纳德·特朗普，加密货币的真正危险？

为 Solana 放弃比特币的阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 并不是一个随波逐流的人，他最新的警告也不是一个无关紧要的细节。

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is known for making bold predictions about the crypto market. This time, he’s warning that Donald Trump’s inauguration could spark a crypto market crash.

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 因对加密市场做出大胆预测而闻名。这次，他警告唐纳德·特朗普的就职典礼可能会引发加密货币市场崩溃。

While many are expecting favorable political developments for crypto assets, Hayes seems to be swimming against the tide. His strategy? Reduce his short-term positions to return to lower prices in 2025.

尽管许多人预计加密资产会出现有利的政治发展，但海耶斯似乎正在逆流而上。他的策略？减少短期头寸，以便在 2025 年恢复到较低的价格。

Donald Trump, the real threat to cryptos?

唐纳德·特朗普，加密货币的真正威胁？

Arthur Hayes, the man who dropped Bitcoin for Solana, is not one to follow the crowd, and his latest warning is not to be overlooked. Donald Trump’s inauguration could shake the crypto market much more violently than expected. As everyone sees Trump as a potential champion of crypto, Hayes warns against setting expectations too high.

为 Solana 放弃比特币的人 Arthur Hayes 并不是一个随波逐流的人，他的最新警告也不容忽视。唐纳德·特朗普的就职典礼可能会对加密货币市场产生比预期更剧烈的震动。由于每个人都将特朗普视为加密货币的潜在拥护者，海耶斯警告不要将期望设定得太高。

In a post titled “Trump Truth”, he predicts an immediate crash around January 20, 2025. The idea behind this brutal drop? A collective disappointment at the lack of concrete and rapid reforms in the crypto field.

在一篇题为“特朗普真相”的帖子中，他预测 2025 年 1 月 20 日左右将立即崩盘。这种残酷下跌背后的想法是什么？人们对加密货币领域缺乏具体而迅速的改革感到集体失望。

« The market thinks that Trump and his allies will perform economic miracles overnight », says Hayes, but we must not forget that policies take time to implement.

海耶斯表示，“市场认为特朗普及其盟友将在一夜之间创造经济奇迹”，但我们绝不能忘记，政策的实施需要时间。

The president will have at best one year to fulfill his promises. This could provoke a violent reaction in the markets, pushing many investors to sell in panic.

总统最多只有一年的时间来兑现他的承诺。这可能会引发市场的剧烈反应，迫使许多投资者恐慌性抛售。

Until then, Hayes and his Maelstrom fund intend to lighten their positions to prepare for a strategic low-cost purchase, a strategy that reflects his short-term pessimism.

在此之前，海耶斯和他的Maelstrom基金打算减仓，为战略性低成本收购做准备，这一策略反映了他的短期悲观情绪。

Hayes’ predictions for 2025

海耶斯对 2025 年的预测

Arthur Hayes, with his sharp market analysis, believes that the year 2025 will be the year of the great reversal for crypto, but not necessarily in the way enthusiastic investors expect. After a likely plunge at the beginning of the year, the expert predicts a “crack-up-boom” in the second half of 2025.

Arthur Hayes 以其敏锐的市场分析认为，2025 年将是加密货币大逆转之年，但不一定是热情投资者所期望的方式。在经历了年初可能出现的暴跌之后，专家预测 2025 年下半年将出现“崩溃式繁荣”。

This is where the real question arises: how will the adoption of bitcoin and other cryptos evolve in such an uncertain political context?

这就是真正的问题出现的地方：在如此不确定的政治背景下，比特币和其他加密货币的采用将如何演变？

The key to the reversal, according to Hayes, lies in investor psychology. Those who bought crypto during the euphoria of the 2023-2024 bull run may find themselves trapped in a selling spiral, while those who stayed out risk seeing the recovery slip through their fingers. Hayes makes no secret of his strategy:

海耶斯认为，逆转的关键在于投资者的心理。那些在 2023 年至 2024 年牛市狂热期间购买加密货币的人可能会发现自己陷入了抛售螺旋，而那些不观望的人则面临着复苏从指缝中溜走的风险。海耶斯毫不掩饰他的策略：

« If the market plunges after Trump’s inauguration, I will be there to buy at low prices, because there will definitely be a rebound at some point. »

« 如果特朗普就职后市场暴跌，我会低价买入，因为肯定会在某个时候反弹。 »

But beware, this is not a forecast of immediate gains. « There is a timing to respect », he warns, mentioning a slow re-evaluation of the crypto market in 2025.

但请注意，这并不是立即收益的预测。他警告说，“是时候尊重了”，并提到 2025 年将对加密市场进行缓慢的重新评估。

Let’s not forget that last November, Hayes already predicted that Donald Trump would not be the trigger for the next bitcoin bull run. According to him, it is China that will play a decisive role in the relaunch of crypto, while the Trump effect will only be a mirage.

我们不要忘记，去年 11 月，海耶斯就已经预测唐纳德·特朗普不会成为下一次比特币牛市的触发者。他认为，中国将在加密货币的重新启动中发挥决定性作用，而特朗普效应只会是海市蜃楼。

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The blockchain and crypto revolution is on the move! And the day its impacts will be felt on the most vulnerable economy in this World, against all odds, I will say that I had something to do with it

区块链和加密货币革命正在进行中！当世界上最脆弱的经济体感受到它的影响时，尽管困难重重，我会说我与它有关