當唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）準備宣布新的關稅權利時，投資者正在質疑這些貿易保護主義措施對加密貨幣的影響。

與最初的恐懼相反，幾位財務分析師認為，這些關稅最終可以加強比特幣作為替代性避風港的地位。

As Donald Trump prepares to announce new tariff rates, investors are evaluating the impact of these protectionist measures on cryptocurrencies.

當唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）準備宣布新的關稅率時，投資者正在評估這些貿易保護主義措施對加密貨幣的影響。

After an initial decline due to broader market turbulence, several financial analysts believe that these tariffs could ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s position as an alternative safe haven.

在由於更廣泛的市場動盪而引起的最初下降之後，幾位財務分析師認為，這些關稅最終可以加強比特幣作為替代性避風港的地位。

Trump’s Tariff Policy and Its Immediate Effects on the Markets

特朗普的關稅政策及其對市場的直接影響

On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce the imposition of “reciprocal” tariffs targeting 15 countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico.

2025年4月2日，預計美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）將宣布針對15個國家（包括中國，加拿大和墨西哥）的“倒數”關稅。

These protectionist measures initially caused a drop in Bitcoin prices, which had been steadily rising throughout the year. From over $100,000 at the beginning of 2025, the flagship cryptocurrency fell to around $80,000 in March.

這些貿易保護主義措施最初導致比特幣價格下跌，全年一直在穩步上漲。從2025年初開始的100,000美元，旗艦加密貨幣在三月份下降到約80,000美元。

This decline is explained by the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, all affected by global economic uncertainty.

這種下降是由加密貨幣與傳統資產之間日益增長的相關性解釋的，所有這些都受到全球經濟不確定性的影響。

“It is the market’s appetite for risk that continues to deteriorate,” explains Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist at ADM Investor Services International.

“市場對風險的興趣繼續惡化，” ADM Investor Services International首席經濟學家Marc Ostwald解釋說。

For now, investors are favoring gold, which has risen by 18% since the beginning of the year, as a traditional safe haven.

目前，投資者偏愛黃金，自今年年初以來，它作為傳統的避風港增長了18％。

However, as Zach Pandl, former macroeconomist at Goldman Sachs and current head of research at Grayscale, notes, “once this tariff announcement is made, crypto markets may potentially refocus on fundamentals, which are very positive.”

然而，正如高盛（Goldman Sachs）的前宏觀經濟師扎克·潘德（Zach Pandl）兼現任Grayscale研究負責人指出：“一旦提出了關稅，加密貨幣市場可能會重新關注基本面，這是非常積極的。”

The Weak美元nde of the Dollar: An Opportunity for Bitcoin

美元的弱nde：比特幣的機會

In the long term, tariffs could paradoxically enhance Bitcoin’s appeal by weakening the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. This fragmentation of the international financial system could thus create a favorable space for alternative currencies.

從長遠來看，關稅可以通過削弱美元的全球優勢來矛盾地增強比特幣的吸引力。因此，國際金融體系的這種分裂可以為替代貨幣創造一個有利的空間。

Omid Malekan, a professor at Columbia Business School, believes that Bitcoin could soon become “the new gold” in this context of economic uncertainty.

哥倫比亞商學院教授Omid Malekan認為，在經濟不確定性的背景下，比特幣可能很快成為“新黃金”。

The rising prices linked to tariffs and potential retaliation measures from the U.S. trade partners are already pushing investors to seek decentralized assets.

與美國貿易夥伴的關稅和潛在報復措施有關的價格上漲已經促使投資者尋求分散資產。

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, adds:

Bitget Research首席分析師Ryan Lee補充說：

The tariffs proposed by Trump could potentially multiply Bitcoin’s appeal by shaking trust in fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, especially if inflationary pressures intensify. With a universal tariff of 20% threatening to provoke stagflation — rising costs without economic growth — combined with likely trade retaliation from global players, investors may increasingly turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven, exploiting its decentralized nature to protect themselves from the consequences of a global trade war.

特朗普提出的關稅可能會通過對諸如美元之類的法定貨幣的信任來增加比特幣的吸引力，尤其是在通貨膨脹壓力加劇的情況下。由於20％的普遍關稅威脅要引發停滯（不經濟增長的成本上升），再加上全球參與者的貿易報復，投資者可能會越來越多地將比特幣作為避風港，利用其分散的性質來保護自己免受全球貿易戰的影響。

Moreover, tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, strengthening the argument for Bitcoin as protection against the devaluation of traditional currencies. According to experts at Wells Fargo and Bank of America cited by Ryan Lee, these protectionist measures could “increase manufacturing prices and erode dollar dominance,” thus directing more capital towards crypto markets.

此外，關稅可能會增加通貨膨脹壓力，從而加強比特幣的論點​​，以防止傳統貨幣貶值。根據瑞安·李（Ryan Lee）引用的富國銀行（Wells Fargo）和美國銀行（Ryan Lee）引用的專家，這些貿易保護主義措施可以“提高製造價格並削弱美元的統治地位”，從而將更多的資本引向加密貨幣市場。

Despite the current turbulence, Pandl remains optimistic:

儘管當前湍流，但PANDL仍然樂觀：

I wouldn’t have left my job on Wall Street if I didn’t believe that Bitcoin would be the long-term winner.

如果我不相信比特幣會成為長期贏家，我就不會離開華爾街的工作。

In summary, Trump’s tariffs represent a paradox for Bitcoin: negative in the short term, but potentially beneficial in the long run. If global economic uncertainty persists, Bitcoin could confirm its role as a credible alternative to the traditional financial system, especially in a context where trust in the dollar is gradually eroding.

總而言之，特朗普的關稅代表了比特幣的悖論：短期內消極，但從長遠來看可能會有益。如果全球經濟不確定性仍然存在，則比特幣可以確認其作為傳統金融體係可靠的替代品的作用，尤其是在美元信任逐漸侵蝕的情況下。